Ira Winderman: If Heat end season at a loss, it’s because of these nightmare scenarios
No, this was not the expectation for the final month of the regular season, the Miami Heat scrambling to deal with the nuances of the NBA’s play-in tournament, the second-chance postseason event for four teams lacking the wherewithal to secure direct playoff entry with a top-six seed.
And, yes, there still is a potential escape hatch that will require help either from the New York Knicks or Brooklyn Nets.
But what has become clear is that nothing could or can be assumed with the Heat this season, including what at least on paper sets up as a week where ground can be gained, with Monday night’s home game against the Utah Jazz, Wednesday night’s home game against a Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies, and then road games next weekend against the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons.
Because bad losses are exactly what have the Heat at a loss this season, improbable if not unfathomable defeats sprinkled amid a won-loss mix that otherwise would have Erik Spoelstra’s team potentially fighting for homecourt advantage in a first round, a round that now will require extra effort just to secure.
Granted, there also is a flip side to such analysis, of improbable wins that just as easily could have flipped to the loss column, such as when an uncalled Tyler Herro travel, confirmed after the fact by the NBA, instead led to his winning 3-pointer in a November victory over the Sacramento Kings; when the Heat escaped at home later that month by one point against the Phoenix Suns, when Phoenix was awarded only four free throws over the 48 minutes; when the NBA’s after-the-fact officiating report said the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Josh Giddey should have been awarded potential game-tying free throws with 1.5 seconds left in a Heat two-point road victory in December; and the Feb. 10 escape act against the Houston Rockets, when Jimmy Butler scored a winning dunk off an inbounds pass from Gabe Vincent with seven-tenths of a second to play.
Still, the bad losses are what resonate at the moment, 10 when the Heat allowed the winnable and needed to turn into something far less.
Oct. 19, Bulls 116, Heat 108: On opening night, at what then still was FTX Arena, the Heat got the added benefit of Chicago being without its starting backcourt of Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball. Instead, the Heat cratered in the second half, falling behind by 15 in the third period, on a night Kyle Lowry closed 1 of 7 from the field, as if a sign of what was to follow.
Nov. 18, Wizards 107, Heat 106 (OT): This wasn’t necessarily a bad loss considering the circumstances. But it was the circumstances that would come to define some of the Heat’s bad losses, with the Heat that night in Washington without Butler, Herro, Bam Adebayo and Victor Oladipo, among others. So they fought the good fight, only to lose when outscored 3-2 – yes, 3-2 – in overtime.
Dec. 5, Grizzlies 101, Heat 93: This is why the Heat can take nothing for granted with Morant being out for Wednesday night’s game at Miami-Dade Arena, with Memphis winning on that December night even while playing in the injury absences of Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and several other rotation regulars.
Dec. 6: Pistons 116, Heat 96: The following night, against an opponent that entered 6-19, the Heat opted to give Butler the game off for rest. It was as his teammates also had the night off, the Heat outscored 69-46 in the second half – a stunning reversal after the Heat led by 11 six minutes in.
Dec. 10: Spurs 115, Heat 111: The most awful week of the season would continue that Saturday, when the Heat found a way to lose to a team that entered 7-18. In a stunning closing moment, with the Heat within two with five seconds to play, Adebayo off an offensive rebound bypassed a point-blank tying putback opportunity to pass out for what turned into a wayward Caleb Martin 3-point attempt.
Dec. 30: Nuggets 124, Heat 119: On the face of it, there is no shame in losing to the top team in the Western Conference at altitude. But it is how it ended that stung, with the Heat allowing the Nuggets to score on all but three fourth-quarter possessions, Denver closing the final period at 13 of 16 from the field, scoring 39 points in the fourth.
Jan. 4, Lakers 112, Heat 109: This was before the Lakers bolstered the bench at the February trading deadline. This was when the Lakers had practically nothing behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis. And this was a night when James and Davis both were out with injuries. Instead, the Heat managed to give Russell Westbrook one shining Lakers moment on the Lakers’ home floor.
Jan. 29/Feb. 25 at Charlotte: Two, yes two, losses on the Hornets’ home court, the first, a 122-119 loss coming when the Hornets entered at 14-36, the second, a 108-103 defeat when the Hornets entered at 16-43. If the Heat get stuck in the play-in, blame the Hornets; if the Hornets don’t get Victor Wembanyama, blame the Heat.
Feb. 15, Nets 116, Heat 105: A road loss to a team that gets a career-high 45 points from Mikal Bridges, by itself, is not necessarily a bad loss. But what made this arguably as painful as any this season is that it gave Brooklyn a 2-0 lead in the three-game season series and therefore the playoff tiebreaker. It was as if beyond coach Erik Spoelstra, no one on the Heat side appreciated the dire circumstances of the moment, Butler taking the fewest shots of any of the Heat starters.
IN THE LANE
IT WORKS: As international soccer leagues draw to their conclusions in the void of playoffs, making their regular seasons their only seasons, credit to the NBA for appreciating what domestic fans want most – playoffs. Granted, having 20 of 30 teams eligible for the postseason does seem excessive. But what the play-in round has done is maintained interest in markets that otherwise only would be considering lottery odds at the moment. The truest test will be if a team ever tanks (or load manages) a play-in game, with teams eliminated in the play-in round still eligible for the lottery.
TO THE FINISH: With six games remaining in a regular-season schedule that resumes Sunday, the Heat’s G League affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce, entered the weekend tied for the sixth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The top six teams in each conference advance, with the top two seeds in each conference receiving first-round byes. The G League playoffs basically are a blur, with each of the first three rounds played as single-elimination, before a best-of-three championship series. The G League regular season ends March 25, with the playoffs opening three days later and concluding no later than April 16. The NBA regular season ends April 9, with the NBA playoffs opening April 15.
SECOND CHANCE: No, it did not end well for Dewayne Dedmon with the Heat. But in signing with the Philadelphia 76ers on the buyout market, the veteran big man believes he has found a better place. “I show my appreciation to people who come calling,” Dedmon told the Philadelphia Inquirer of signing with the 76ers. “They were the ones that had a real job waiting for me.” For the 76ers, it has been an uneven run in trying to find quality backup to Joel Embiid, including Greg Monroe, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan in previous seasons and Montrezl Harrell this season. Enter Dedmon, whose Heat tenure ended with a run-in with coach Erik Spoelstra. “I got mental clarity. For myself, that’s the biggest thing that I need moving forward in my life and my career. I need mental clarity and stability,” Dedmon said. “For me to get traded from there was my mental clarity and my stability.”
REAL DEAL: With some questioning the maturity of the Memphis Grizzlies and the potential need for a veteran presence, loquacious guard Dillon Brooks said such discussions need to be kept real. “Who do you want to sign,” said Brooks, whose team visits Miami-Dade Arena on Wednesday night. “You wanna sign Carmelo Anthony? You wanna sign Dwight Howard? Who do you want to sign? Those guys are trying to get back into the league. They’re not trying to hone in on a guy and be a vet. A real vet is like Udonis Haslem.” Say what you want about the Heat captain and his nominal playing role, but the respect around the league is genuine.
NUMBER
41. NBA record for most games during a regular season decided by five or fewer points, set by the 1977-78 Denver Nuggets. The Heat went into the weekend with 38 such games this season, with a 23-15 record in those games. The Heat have 14 games remaining.
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