2023 Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay nominees: 1 veteran versus 10 rookies

The films in contention for the 2023 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar are “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Glass Onion,” “Living,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” and “Women Talking.” Our odds currently indicate that “Women Talking” (10/3) will win the award, followed in order of likelihood by “All Quiet on the Western Front” (37/10), “Glass Onion” (9/2), “Top Gun: Maverick” (9/2), and “Living” (9/2).

“Glass Onion” and “Top Gun: Maverick,” which are, respectively, the first sequels to 2019’s “Knives Out” and 1986’s “Top Gun,” are the first pair of continuation films ever nominated against each other in this category. Included among the seven sequels that have contended here before are winners “The Godfather Part II” (1975) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2004) and nominees “Before Sunset” (2005), “Toy Story 3” (2011), “Before Midnight” (2014), “Logan” (2018), and “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (2021).

Of the 11 individual writers in this year’s lineup, only Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”) has competed for this particular award before. She was previously nominated for penning “Away from Her” (2008), which, like “Women Talking,” she also directed. Three more current adapted nominees have vied for the Best Original Screenplay prize in the past, with Christopher McQuarrie (“Top Gun: Maverick”) having succeeded on his bid for “The Usual Suspects” in 1996. Also included in this subset are one of McQuarrie’s “Top Gun: Maverick” co-writers, Eric Warren Singer (“American Hustle,” 2014), and “Glass Onion” scenarist Rian Johnson (“Knives Out”).

Polley would be only the ninth woman to win an Oscar for adaptive writing. Since Sian Heder (“CODA”) triumphed last year, this would also make for the first case of back-to-back female victories in the category’s history. The women who preceded Heder in prevailing here were Sarah Y. Mason (“Little Women,” 1934), Claudine West (“Mrs. Miniver,” 1943), Ruth Prawer Jhabvala (“A Room with a View,” 1987 and “Howards End,” 1993), Emma Thompson (“Sense and Sensibility,” 1996), Philippa Boyens and Fran Walsh (“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”), and Diana Ossana (“Brokeback Mountain,” 2006).

McQuarrie has a shot at becoming the 14th person to conquer both writing Oscar categories, directly following Ethan Coen and Joel Coen (Original: “Fargo,” 1997; Adapted: “No Country for Old Men,” 2008). The other members of this group who achieved their original victories first are Alan Jay Lerner (“An American in Paris,” 1952; “Gigi,” 1959), Ring Lardner Jr. (“Woman of the Year,” 1943; “M*A*S*H,” 1971), Francis Ford Coppola (“Patton,” 1970; “The Godfather,” 1973 and “The Godfather Part II”), and William Goldman (“Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid,” 1970; “All the President’s Men,” 1977).

Having already received the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2017, Oscars newcomer Kazuo Ishiguro (“Living”) now follows George Bernard Shaw as only the second Nobel laureate to subsequently achieve film academy recognition in any category. Shaw was honored with the same Nobel Prize in 1925 and then won Best Adapted Screenplay in 1939 for “Pygmalion” (based on his own 1913 stage play).

The remaining six Oscar rookies in this group are evenly divided between “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” The former trio consists of Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, while the latter includes Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, and Justin Marks.

The films that won in this category most recently are “CODA” (2022), “The Father” (2021), “Jojo Rabbit” (2020), and “BlacKkKlansman” (2019). This year’s winner will be revealed during the 95th Academy Awards ceremony, airing March 12 on ABC.

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