Scotland v Ireland: Six Nations 2023, Match Preview pt II – head to heads

Scotland and Ireland have each made 3 changes to their respective starting XVs compared to their lineups for the opening round of the Six Nations. Lions’ tightheads have slotted back in for both sides (Zander Fagerson for WP Nel and Tadhg Furlong for Finlay Bealham), while suspension and injury respectively have seen second rows needing to be replaced (Jonny Gray in for Grant Gilchrist and Iain Henderson for Tadhg Beirne).

The dark blues’ other change has been to introduce Jack Dempsey for Luke Crosbie (necessitating a shuffling round of shirt numbers among the back row) while the visitors have brought in Bundee Aki for Stuart McCloskey in the centres.

2 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v France)

• 5 – J. Gray for Gilchrist [=]
• 8/7/6 – Dempsey for Wason with Ritchie to 7 and M. Fagerson to 6 [=]

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BACK 3 – EVEN

4th time this unit has started together for Scotland

This is a a high quality group of players capable of creating and scoring outstanding tries. If the forecast weather pans out however, these six players could be reduced to a battle of who can kick furthest and who is most secure under the high ball.

While the Scots will be more than comfortable with their kicking game, the Irish will back themselves in an aerial contest. So, adjusting for the weather, if it’s minging then advantage Ireland. Pray for clear weather, Scotland fans…

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CENTRES – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

4th time this unit has started together for Scotland

Ireland have had to mix and match their centre pairings in this tournament – three different duos so far and if Robbie Henshaw’s return from the bench goes well, there is a reasonable chance they will revert to his tried and tested partnership with Garry Ringrose for Round 5.

While Huwipulotu doesn’t have the same history behind it, this is now clearly the go to in midfield for Scotland. There have been periods when the dark blues have bypassed one or other of their centres in attack and expected Finn Russell to do it all when it comes to distribution. Now, Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones are absolutely central to the passing game required to unlock opposition defences.

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HALF BACKS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND

4th time this unit has started together for Scotland

Johnny Sexton . Finn Russell will be hoping that this attempt is lucky number seven after six previous losses when starting for club and country against the veteran (37 & 2/3rds!) Irish maestro.

The 10s will be looking for big performances from their respective scrum halves. Conor Murray has all the experience from a dozen years at they very top level but Ben White can lay claim to being one of the break out players of this Six Nations. He is keeping 2021 Lion, Ali Price, on the bench and the London Irish 9s’ calmness and solid fundamentals are proving to to be a good foil for Russell.

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FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE IRELAND

8th time this unit has started together for Scotland

Gregor Townsend’s favoured prop pairing (15 starts together at 1 and 3 since Pierre Schoeman’s debut 20 matches ago) haven’t had a perfect time at the setpiece but they are capable of bringing plenty of power at scrum time – they just need to paint the pictures the ref wants to see.

Tadgh Furlong would usually be an easy pick to boss the front row battle all around the pitch. He will be playing his first game of 2023 though. Scotland fans will be hoping the two time Lion is rusty and not at his dominating best.

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SECOND ROW – EVEN

22nd time this unit has started together for Scotland

Between 2014 and 2017, the Gray brothers were pretty much an automatic selection in the boiler room for Scotland but there has been a six year wait to see them reunited as starters. While many may be disappointed by the siblings’ increasingly sensible haircuts, in terms of actual rugby they remain a classy pairing who complement each other’s style.

The Scottish duo will require every last bit of their ferocious work rates to keep up with the energy levels of Ireland’s second rows. The missing Tadhg Beirne is a big loss for the visitors though when it comes to their work at the breakdown.

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BACK ROW – ADVANTAGE IRELAND

2nd time this unit has started together for Scotland

At club level, Glasgow have moved Matt Fagerson to flanker to accommodate Jack Dempsey in the number 8 shirt on 11 occasions so far. They’ve tended to round out their back row with 127kg Sione Vailanu though, so not quite the same style of scavenging, spoiling play that Jamie Ritchie will bring to the openside’s role!

For so many Scotland / Ireland clashes the battle of the back rows – and in particular their impact at the breakdown – has been a microcosm of the overall contest. In 2020, the Scots had their best chance in years of a win in Dublin but lost 8 of their own rucks (with a number of these coming in Ireland’s 22) while the Irish were turned over just once as they eked out the victory.

There is no question that each member of the Scottish breakaway trio is a talented player, among the best the dark blues have been able to call upon in the pro era. Their opponents boast two players who are world class standard though, as well as a veteran who is also in that bracket in the specific areas of the lineout and shithousery.

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FORWARD REPLACEMENTS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND

Ireland are so replete with B&I Lions that they can afford to leave 4 of them on the bench. Mind you, Scotland are not far off a similar situation. Only half of their 2021 Lions will start at Murrayfield. Toony’s current best lineup has seen Hamish Watson, Ali Price and Chris Harris benched, with Rory Sutherland unable to even make the matchday squad.

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BACK REPLACEMENTS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND

Ireland fans will be keen to see Jamison Gibson-Park back in action. The former Blues and Hurricanes’ player seems to have been a crucial component in the step up to world number 1 and the consistency of performance his side have delivered as the current World Cup cycle has progressed.

There are a couple of Lions among the Scottish subs but it’s Blair Kinghorn who might be the most important player. His flexibility on where he can fit in allows for plenty of options and he has made some really positive plays when he has been involved so far in the tournament.

(Players in BLOCK CAPITALS have been selected to tour with the B&I Lions)

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Miscellany

–  On the day that he makes his 100th appearance for Scotland, Stuart Hogg will also play his 50th home match for the national side (47 at Murrayfield, 2 at Rugby Park and 1 at Pittodrie).

– This will be the 300th full capped international played by Scotland’s Mens’ team at Murrayfield. Their very first was a 14 – 11 win over England in March 1925.

– 67% of Richie Gray’s Test tries have been scored against Ireland. That’s only 2 tries – but still!

– This is the heaviest pack (928kg) and starting XV (1,613kg) selected for Scotland during the Townsend era.

– And finally, the stat that gets dragged out every time a Scottish side takes on Johnny Sexton – and will continue to do so until one of them finally beats him or he retires, which currently looks the likelier option…Sexton has played 37 times against Scotland, Edinburgh, Glasgow and the Borders and has lost on just 6 occasions. It’s 4,741 days (or just shy of 12 years if you prefer) since the stand off last tasted defeat against a Scottish team in a competitive game and he’s on a 23-match winning streak against those sides.

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Missed part 1? Check it out . Featuring Scotland’s history with the Triple Crown; Ireland scouting report; and Scotland’s record with Mr Pearce as referee.

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