Bay Area storms: New atmospheric river expected to arrive overnight, Pajaro floodwaters approach highway 68

A moderate-to-strong atmospheric river storm bringing what the National Weather Service called a “direct threat to life and property” approached the Bay Area on Monday for what was expected to be a nighttime arrival for more heavy rains to an already impacted region.

A region-wide NWS flood watch was scheduled to go into effect from 10 p.m. Monday to 4 a.m. Wednesday. A Monday morning bulletin from the agency suggested that highly saturated soils paired with elevated river and streams levels made more water-related impacts a “sure bet.”

The incoming #AtmosphericRiver will bring more heavy rain and flooding concerns beginning tonight. Make sure you are prepared for flooding and potential road closures. Remember to NEVER drive through flooded roadways. Turn around, don't drown! #cawx pic.twitter.com/AMfpyap8kL

— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) March 13, 2023

Aside from light showers early in the morning, Monday’s forecast was relatively tame in terms of rainfall and wind throughout the Bay Area. While wind gusts could ramp up to 40 miles per hour or greater around 10 p.m., the bulk of the rain was expected after 1 a.m. Tuesday morning.

In all, San Jose, Livermore and Concord could expect to see between one-half and one inch of rain from Monday evening through Wednesday morning. Expectations were higher in San Francisco, where it could receive as much at one and a half inches of rainfall, and Santa Cruz could expect between two and three.

All eyes remain on the small Monterey County community of Pajaro as the next storm nears, however, after water breached a levee early Saturday morning, devastating the neighborhoods and farmlands of the town. The Monterey County Department of Emergency Management issued shelter in-place orders early Monday at Las Palmas 1, 2 and Indian Springs due to flooding at River Road.

The department also warned that floodwaters from the Salinas River have moved northeast towards Spreckels Boulevard and began to approach highway 68, which could result in significant flooding to agricultural land.

NWS projections showed an additional one-half to one-third of an inch of rain headed to Pajaro overnight Monday and another one to two inches Tuesday. Hydrographs showed the Salinas River was expected to reach 27.5 feet, less than a foot shy of a major flood zone, by Monday morning.

River flooding is another concern from the #AtmosphericRiver. Here's a look at some hydrographs for the Salinas and Pajaro rivers showing recent water stages and forecast crests. #cawx pic.twitter.com/JJVIFqroqJ

— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) March 13, 2023

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.