March Madness BUY or SELL: Will Power 6 Tourney Winners Keep Winning?
The 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket has been revealed! Every conference crowned a tournament champion, and we now know the matchups and paths for each team. Which teams should you buy, and which ones should you avoid when plotting a path to the Final Four?
ACC – Duke Blue Devils
As the calendar turned to February, the Duke Blue Devils were squarely on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, and it looked very possible that first-year head Jon Scheyer would struggle to guide his squad to the Big Dance. Things took a turn after a controversial loss at Virginia, and the Blue Devils are healthy and have won nine straight games heading into the NCAA Tournament. That winning streak includes the ACC Tournament Championship.
They are a 5-seed and are matched up against Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles used to be known as the Titans, and they could use the fierce nickname for this matchup. Despite a terrific scoring guard in Max Abmas and a 7’5″ transfer that will be a challenge for Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively II, the athleticism and length of Duke will see them past the mid-major darling.
They would then match up with either injury-depleted and offensively challenged Tennessee or Louisiana. That’s a terrific path to the Sweet 16, where they could meet Purdue, Memphis, or Florida Atlantic.
Purdue could be bothered by its athletic and quick backcourt, and the Memphis Tigers could really hurt the freshmen backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Duke would present the same issues with Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach.
The most likely opponents for the Elite Eight is the Marquette Golden Eagles, or the Kansas State Wildcats. Obviously, both are outstanding teams, but the Blue Devils would be the most talented team on the court against either of them. Duke is currently listed at +750 to make the Final Four, which seems like a reasonable bet. BUY the Blue Devils.
Big East – Marquette Golden Eagles
We stay in the East Region for the next team on the list, the Big East regular season and conference tournament champions: the Marquette Golden Eagles.
The Golden Eagles are 28-6 and have not lost since an 87-72 defeat at UConn on February 7. They routed Xavier to win the Big East Tournament. They are led by the backcourt duo of Kam Jones and Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek (averaging 13.3 points per game and 7.7 assists per game).
Marquette’s play earned the number two seed in the East Region, and they are matched up in the first round with the Vermont Catamounts. That game does not figure to be particularly competitive, and the Golden Eagles are heavy favorites to advance.
USC would present an interesting matchup athleticism wise if they can get by Michigan State. Either way, Marquette has been really solid all season and features one of the most efficient offensive attacks in the country.
They would likely play Kentucky, Providence, or Kansas State in the Sweet 16 in New York City and then get Purdue, Duke, or Tennessee in the Elite Eight. The Boilermakers beat Marquette very early in the season (75-70), but that game was long enough ago to be meaningless for evaluation purposes.
Marquette is a very good team and deserving of a 2-seed, but here’s the rub: they are only +370 to make the Final Four. You can get better odds for Duke (+750), Kansas State (+1100), and Tennessee (+600). SELL the Golden Eagles.
Big 12 – Texas Longhorns
Considered by many to be the nation’s best basketball conference this season, the Big 12 wrapped up the conference tournament on Saturday with a convincing win by the Texas Longhorns over the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Longhorns were rewarded with the 2-seed in the Midwest Region and paired up with 15-seed Colgate. The Raiders are a very good mid-major team that could present some problems because of the slow tempo and accurate three-point shooting, but Texas is a very good defensive team with a major edge in size and athleticism. A win there would pit them against Penn State or Texas A&M. Both would be worthy foes, and it’s a tricky pod for the Longhorns to get out of.
The Sweet 16 would see likely opponents of either Xavier or Iowa State. Texas split the season series with the Cyclones, including a more recent 72-54 dominant win.
Indiana, Miami, or Houston would be the Elite Eight opponents for the Longhorns. The biggest concern for Texas backers would be the propensity for the team to go on cold spells shooting the ball. Still, they are top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and the guard trio of Marcus Carr, Sir’Jabari Rice, and Tyrese Hunter are as good as any in the country.
Add in the injury concern for Houston’s Marcus Sasser and Xavier being without Zach Freemantle and Texas at +400 to make the Final Four seems like a reasonable position to take. BUY the Longhorns.
Big Ten – Purdue Boilermakers
The Purdue Boilermakers won both the regular season and conference tournament crowns for the Big Ten. By all accounts, it has been a terrific season for Matt Painter’s squad. They are led by Zach Edey, a force and the runaway favorite for National Player of the Year.
Purdue landed the number one seed in the East Region and will play the winner of Texas Southern and Fairleigh Dickinson in round one. The Boilers have far too much size to be bothered in that matchup.
The next game could be trickier, though, as they will face the winner of Memphis and Florida Atlantic. Florida Atlantic is 31-3 on the season, and they can fill it up, but the scarier matchup would definitely be the Memphis Tigers.
The biggest issue for Purdue all season (and in years past) is a team with length and athleticism on the perimeter than can bother and disrupt its freshmen backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. The Memphis Tigers have that, playing a style that could bother the Boilermakers.
Further into the tournament, if Purdue advances, they could see something similar with the Duke Blue Devils. Purdue is the favorite to advance from the East, but the odds do not favor making a wager. They are +320 to advance to the Final Four. SELL the Boilermakers.
PAC-12 – Arizona Wildcats
Late Saturday night, a thrilling PAC-12 Championship contest ended with the Arizona Wildcats beating the UCLA Bruins. The Wildcats earned the 2-seed in the South Region and are paired with the Princeton Tigers.
Princeton knocked off Yale to make the Big Dance, and they will be a worthy opponent for Arizona, but if the Wildcats can speed them up a bit, they’ll overwhelm them physically and advance.
The next round would see them play Missouri or Utah State. Either team would be a test, but Arizona would be a heavy favorite.
The Sweet 16 could see a game against Baylor or against Creighton. The Wildcats already beat Creighton once early this season, and Arizona is playing much better now. Baylor is a formidable opponent but lacks size on the interior to match up with the Wildcats’ frontcourt. In addition, the Bears have not beaten a tournament team away from home since a win at West Virginia on January 11.
The number one seed in the South Region is the Alabama Crimson Tide. That’s a stern test, and there would be future NBA players all over the court if they did match up. I think they are clearly the top two teams in this region, but I like Arizona’s odds better. The Wildcats are +360 to reach the Final Four. BUY the Wildcats.
SEC – Alabama Crimson Tide
We’ll close by staying in the South and the tournament’s number one overall seed, the Alabama Crimson Tide. They won the regular season and tournament titles, and despite a lot of controversy surrounding off-court issues, Alabama has been one of the nation’s best teams all season.
Brandon Miller is perhaps the country’s best player that is not named Zach Edey, and there are a lot of complimentary pieces surrounding him. The Tide are terrific on offense, very good on defense, and they can punish you on the glass with elite athleticism.
They’ll play Texas A&M Corpus Christi or Southeast Missouri in round one and then Maryland or West Virginia in round two.
The Sweet 16 would pit them against San Diego State, Virginia (or perhaps Charleston or Furman), and the Elite Eight likely brings the showdown with Arizona or Baylor.
This is a pretty easy walk to the Elite Eight for Alabama but look elsewhere if the best value is what you are after. While Arizona is +360, Alabama is just +190 (second lowest odds in the field). For that reason, SELL the Crimson Tide.
Odds Courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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