5 Tips to Help You Fill Out Your Bracket for March Madness

At long last, we have the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket. The field of 68 has been selected and seeded, with the 90-hour rush to fill out your bracket now underway. We are here to guide you in making the proper picks to best predict the madness and take home your bracket pools accurately.

Here are a few tips to consider when filling out your bracket this week:

You will hear all about the popular 12-seed upset over the 5-seed over the next few days, and it’s justified. At least one of the four 12-seeds has pulled off the upset in 32 of the past 37 NCAA Tournaments, and it’s wise to have at least one of those in your bracket.

But we know you will hear that advice everywhere, and we’d be bringing you nothing new. We’ve seen bigger giants fall in the opening round, so you must consider getting even crazier than picking the 12-seeds. A 13-seed or lower has won a game in 13 of the past 14 NCAA Tournaments.

It’s a risky proposition, but you leave yourself at the most risk by avoiding selecting one altogether. Don’t get too chalky with those higher seeds in the opening round, and make sure you have a 13, 14, or 15 getting an opening-round upset. Plus, how awesome does it feel to have bragging rights as one of very few to predict a monumental upset in your pool?

It’s difficult to pick a potential national championship contender to fall early, but we frequently see it on the 2-line. Of the 40 No. 2 seeds in the previous ten NCAA Tournaments, 23 have reached the Sweet 16.

It means we are almost sure to see one fall before the second weekend, and we may even see two eliminated. Find a 7-seed (or even a ten if you’re feeling risky) you’re high on, a 2-seed you may be low on, and root for the madness in that region.

The other added benefit is the massive uptick in 15-over-2 upsets in recent years. After going ten-straight tournaments up to 2012 without a 15-seed winning a game, we’ve seen them notch six wins since. While nearly impossible to predict, your bracket will see minimal damage if a 2-seed falls in the first round, and you had them losing in the next round anyway.

This is crucial because of the volatility in the number of upsets we see each year. Your bracket is in serious trouble if you have too few upsets compared to the yearly average, and we get utter chaos. Conversely, too many upsets chosen with mostly chalk results can also be an early bracket-buster.

The NCAA Tournament has averaged six to seven double-digit seed upsets in the first round, so that should be your target. If the madness falls short or it overproduces, you should be able to survive by sticking right near the average. This only considers double-digit seeds as upsets.

Think a 9-seed beating an 8-seed should be viewed as an upset? The 9-seeds are 77-71 against 8-seeds in the tournament’s history.

BONUS TIP: At least one team from the First Four has won a first-round matchup in every NCAA Tournament except one (2019) since its inception in 2011. Consider tossing one of them into your selection of upsets.

It’s easy to stick to chalk when the matchups toughen up for your Cinderella pick in the later rounds, but past seasons have proven that the slipper can still fit beyond the first weekend. A double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 14 consecutive NCAA Tournaments and 35 of the past 37.

Look for exploitable matchups heading into the second round. If you choose a 14-seed to beat a 3-seed, they’ll be up against a 6-seed in the next round. That may be a better spot to consider a deeper run than a 10-seed taking on a 2-seed. Trust us; you don’t want to be stuck with all single-digit seeds in your Sweet 16 when the madness ensues.

It might sound straightforward, but 1-seeds are the teams to back when the chips are down. They have taken home 65 percent of the past 37 NCAA Tournaments and are typically a cut above the rest of the field.

These teams usually stick around the bracket the longest, which opens up potential hedging opportunities for you if you choose to do so. The name of the game in March Madness can often be to avoid self-inflicted errors, and sticking with the cream of the crop in the tournament’s later stages will always be your friend.

Just two Final Fours have ever excluded all four top seeds that season. We’ll likely get at least one to the national semifinals in Houston. You provide plenty of hedging opportunities if your bracket makes it that far and you’re still in contention for your pool.

The post 5 Tips to Help You Fill Out Your Bracket for March Madness appeared first on NESN.com.