Crystal ball time for Bulls with 15 games left, play-in spot at stake

Billy Donovan knows his team’s remaining schedule very well.

The Bulls coach just wants to make sure he and his players aren’t dwelling on it.

For an underachieving team that’s been stuck in mud most of the 2022-23 campaign, that’s not easy to do.

Thanks to a two-game winning streak and an Eastern Conference that’s very soft in the midsection, the Bulls took to the practice floor of the Advocate Center on Monday back in a play-in spot.

The final play-in spot, but a play-in spot.

The reality of the situation? It feels like it will come down to Toronto, the Bulls, and Indiana for the No. 9 and 10 spots, with one team left out and doing the “1-2-3 Cancun!’’ breakdown.

No. 7 Miami and No. 8 Atlanta seemingly have enough room to keep playing inconsistent basketball, while Washington – currently sitting at 31-37 – is more play-in pretender than contender.

So there’s a real opening for the Bulls, as long as they can navigate what’s in front of them.

“Our schedule is challenging,’’ Donovan said. “We have a few days when we can practice, which will be good. But then you have Sacramento [starting Wednesday], Minnesota, Miami, Philly twice, so we’ve just to focus on us.

“We’ve just got to keep getting better and focusing on us. That’s the most important thing. A lot can happen in 15 games. I’ve never been a big believer in sitting around and hoping someone else drops some games; we’ve got to worry about us.’’

The good news for Donovan is his team has been trending upward since signing Patrick Beverley out of the buy-out/waive market. The Chicago native has helped his hometown team go 5-3 in that time, playing some of their most consistent ball of the season.

That’s going to have to continue, and then some, with a schedule that currently ranked as the ninth toughest remaining. What can help the Bulls sleep better at night was the Pacers had the eighth-toughest, while the Raptors the fifth.

A quick glance into the crystal ball, and it’s fair to scale Toronto out as a 39-43 team, while Indiana looks like a realistic 38-44 finish. The Pacers do have the tie-breaker over the Bulls, so that means under this scenario, the Bulls need to go 8-7 over the last 15 and finish with 39 wins.

Here’s how they do it:

THE MUST-WINS:

The Bulls have the backcourt defense with Beverley and Alex Caruso, as well as the scoring punch, to beat Minnesota (Mar. 17), at Portland (Mar. 24), at Charlotte (Mar. 31), at Dallas (April 7), and Detroit (April 9).

Those must-wins give them five victories, putting them on the cusp of locking that play-in spot down.

THE TOUGH SLEDDING:

The Bulls have never beat Joel Embiid … ever. They have a home-and-home with Philadelphia next week. They’ve handled the Heat twice down in Miami, but a motivated Jimmy Butler is better than anything the Bulls have on the roster, and it’s not close. There’s three-straight games against the Los Angeles teams – two in LA and the Lakers in Chicago on Mar. 29 – so two more losses in that stretch is fair.

Unless Milwaukee is resting players on April 5, that’s a sixth loss.

THE SWING GAMES:

Here’s where the Bulls season could be won or lost.

They’ll win one of the LA games, leaving them needing two more wins to feel safe. The Kings game on Wednesday is huge, with Sacramento coming in red-hot. They are 19-13 on the road, so the Bulls could steal that one. Memphis is an unknown with the Ja Morant situation, but even if Morant plays, the Grizzlies are a banged up group.

The game that could decide it will be April 4, hosting Atlanta. The Bulls have won two-of-three, but two of them came down to the final horn.