NCAA Tournament: Odds vs. Analytics Among the Madness of March
Queue the music–I wanna get analytical with the metrics and measure value compared to the NCAA Tournament odds.Blue Bloods Overvalued
The gold standard for analytics in college hoops is KenPom. When comparing KenPom’s rankings to how the betting odds stack up, one thing stands out right away. The Blue Bloods are overvalued by the books/bettors. Who knew, right?
The Kansas Jayhawks (+1200) are tied for the third-shortest odds at FanDuel to win the tournament; however, they check in at ninth on KenPom. It’s not just KP that doesn’t value the defending champions as highly as the market. Kansas is 10th per Haslametrics.com and 12th on Barttorvik.com.
KU’s resume is worthy of a 1-seed, but I’m behind fading the Jayhawks. Repeating is hard enough, and they’re not as strong as last year’s group.
The Duke Blue Devils are a 5-seed, slightly over-ranked per KP and Barttorvik (T-rank), who have the ACC school ranked 21st nationally. The sportsbooks tell a different story, with Duke (+3300) having the 13th shortest odds in the field.
Sure, they finished the season strong with an ACC Tournament title, but they spent much of the year unranked and finished the 20-game conference regular season tied for third with Clemson (didn’t make the NCAA Tournament) and Pittsburgh (First Four).
This is not a very impressive ACC field or a vintage Duke team. They are young on the court and the bench, with Jon Scheyer coaching his first NCAA Tournament.
One spot behind the Blue Devils, 14th on the natty odds, are the Blue Bloods from the Bluegrass region, the Kentucky Wildcats (+3500). The metrics have them even more overvalued as the ‘Cats are ranked 28th by KenPom, 27th by Barttorvik, and 26th by Haslametrics.
Kentucky has talent and might be getting healthy, which leads one to believe they could peak at just the right time. I need to see it before I believe it. The last time the ‘Cats took the court, they lost to Vanderbilt for the second time in ten days. Tell me again why I should be buying the Wildcats.
I’m a coach John Calipari fan, but his program has been more sizzle than steak for a while now. The last time they won an NCAA Tournament game was in 2019, made the Final 4 in 2015, and won a National Title in 2012.
It’s still a track record the rival Indiana Hoosiers envy. IU’s 22 wins are the program’s most since the 2015-16 season, which has them tied for 19th (+5000) on FanDuel’s totem pole. Too high, according to the numbers, as the Hoosiers are 30th on KenPom and Haslametrics and 33rd per T-Rank.
If you believe in the numbers, this March Madness might be the time to focus more on the names on the back of the jersey than the front.
What Teams Have Value?There’s not much at the top regarding legit national title contenders. Two teams that stand out a bit are Connecticut (+2100) with the tenth shortest odds and Tennessee (+2500), tied with Baylor (15th in KP) for the 11th shortest odds at FD but rank higher according to the numbers guys.
KenPom has the Huskies fourth and the Vols fifth. The order is flipped on Barttorvik, and Haslametrics has UConn 5th and Tennessee 6th.
Moving on to the Final 4, three programs are among the five tied at +7500 on FanDuel (tied for 25th), who appear to be undervalued.
San Diego State is 11th on T-Rank, 13th on Haslametrics, and 14th on KenPom. If you’re looking for someone other than 1-seed Alabama (+150) to make it to Houston, why not the Aztecs (+1500 to win the South)?
Two more programs to consider are Memphis and West Virginia. The Tigers are 16th on T-Rank, 16th on Haslametrics, and 19th on KP, while the Mountaineers are 19th on T-Rank, 21st on Haslametrics, and 17th on KP. You don’t need to twist my arm to back Penny or Huggy Bear.
Memphis (+1500 to win the East) might be better than Power 6 programs Duke, Kentucky, Kansas State, and Michigan State, who all have shorter odds of making it to NRG Stadium.
West Virginia (+1500 to win the South) is in the same bracket as San Diego State and would face Alabama a round earlier with a more challenging first-round opponent. That’s why the Aztecs are +154 to make the Sweet 16, and the Mountaineers are +440 to make it out of the first weekend.
Another potential sleeper is Utah State, also in the South Region, ranked 18th on Haslametrics, 18th on KP, and 25th on T-Rank. The Aggies are +440 to make the Sweet 16 with a potentially vulnerable 2-seed in Arizona awaiting them. If they get by the ‘Cats, USU is +1300 to make the Elite 8.
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Bracket Tips | East | South | Midwest | West | Ranking 12-5 Upsets | Ranking 11-6 Upsets | Sweet 16 Futures | Buy or Sell Conference Tourney Winners
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