The unavoidable Aaron Rodgers Jets trade is so hard to predict because somehow neither side has leverage

Aaron Rodgers is going to be a New York Jet. The only thing standing in his way is whatever the Jets have to send back to the Green Bay Packers to complete that trade.

But while we’ve seen high-profile veteran quarterbacks get moved before, you can’t turn to deals for Russell Wilson or Matthew Stafford as a model. Those quarterbacks had been quietly put on the trading block and had a wide range of suitors bidding for their services. And neither was about to turn 40 years old with $185 million in salary cap obligations attached to his contract.

There’s a distinct difference with Rodgers. Top Packers executive Mark Murphy publicly stated he no longer considers the 15-year starter his top option for 2023. Rodgers, in response, has loudly told the world he’s going to be a Jet. And since this dance has lasted into the NFL’s free agent signing period, quarterback-needy teams who could have joined in the bidding have already mapped out their presumptive starters.

Aaron Rodgers confirms that he wants to play for the Jets and that the Packers want to move on from him. He says the hold up is that the Packers are trying to get the right trade package from the Jets

(via @PatMcAfeeShow) pic.twitter.com/wqtCOV37xl

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) March 15, 2023

The Carolina Panthers traded up for the top overall pick. The New Orleans Saints, who would have had to add a truly stupid amount of voidable years to Rodgers’ deal to fit him onto a perpetually cramped salary cap, opted for Derek Carr instead. The Las Vegas Raiders decided against a reunion with Davante Adams and signed Jimmy Garoppolo.

Even the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have added veteran depth at quarterback via Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, respectively. Maybe the Atlanta Falcons or Tennessee Titans or Washington Commanders would be interested, but any chance of that flew out the window when Rodgers told the world his “intention was to play for the New York Jets.”

This should benefit New York, but Green Bay has seen exactly how badly Rodgers’ future teammates want him there. Garrett Wilson lost his mind over the suggestion the trade was going through. Sauce Gardner burned a cheesehead as an offering to the football gods. Making this team turn to anyone else behind center, especially Zach Wilson, would be a disaster.

As a result, both New York and Green Bay have vacated the kind of leverage that would dictate a Wilson/Stafford-type haul or a surprisingly meager return for the 2020 and 2021 NFL MVP — at least from a public standpoint. The Packers want two first round picks in exchange, which is unlikely to happen. The Jets would like to pull off a deal similar to when Rob Gronkowski came out of retirement in 2020 and everyone knew the only place he was going was to Tom Brady’s side, costing a fourth-round pick in return. That’s also a pipe dream.

Further complicating matters is Rodgers’ contract, which runs through 2026 and has a shade under $100 million in dead salary cap space attached. There’s almost certainly going to be a restructuring there, and the side that takes on more money will be able to use that in trade negotiations.

So, in short, we know an Aaron Rodgers trade is coming. We don’t know what it will look like without being privy to the internal negotiations that have been going on for the past five days. If this were as simple as the Stafford/Wilson deals, it would have been done by now — and the Packers and Jets would have been able to go about their free agency plans in full. But it’s not, so it hasn’t.

Keep that in mind when the Packers get a haul, or don’t, when it comes to trading away a four-time MVP.