March Madness: Predicting Which Men's NCAA Tournament No. 1 Seed Will Fall First

Purdue and Kansas face particularly tough challenges in their respective regions. Which of those two No. 1 teams will lose first?

A team’s path through March Madness can make or break their shot at a deep tournament run.

The bracket is set up to favor higher-seeded teams, and that’s worked out well lately as the last five winners have all been No. 1 seeds: Kansas in 2022, Baylor in 2021, Virginia in 2019, Villanova in 2018 and North Carolina in 2017.

Notice there are no repeat winners. The last team to go back-to-back was Florida, which cut down the nets in 2006 and again in 2007. And not only are the defending champions falling short of their title aspirations, but they’ve also consistently lost early in the tournament in recent years.

The last defending champion to advance to the Sweet 16 was Duke in 2016. Since then, four of five winners have lost in the Round of 32 and one (Virginia in 2021) fell in the Round of 64.

All this to say: The Jayhawks have their work cut out for them to break precedent. And their draw in the West Region won’t be doing them any favors.

KU seemingly has the most difficult path to the Final Four of any of the No. 1 seeds, which is why they could be the first to fall. But Purdue is also liable to be upset early.

So, which top-seeded team is getting toppled first?

Drawing Conclusions from Title Odds

The betting odds show that Kansas (+1000) is among the favorites to win the tournament this year with third-best odds. That’s behind only No. 1 Houston (+500) and No. 1 Alabama (+700) and ahead of No. 1 Purdue (+1100).

If the Jayhawks get out of their region, they have as good a shot as any team to finish the job in the Final Four. But the two teams with the fifth- and sixth-best title odds also hail from the West Region: No. 2 UCLA (+1200) and No. 3 Gonzaga (+1400). And No. 8 UConn (+1800) is tied for the eighth-best odds.

Including Kansas, four of the nine top teams by title odds are in the West Region. Talk about a tough draw.

In the Midwest, Houston could face a challenge from No. 2 Texas (+1600), Alabama will eventually have to worry about No. 2 Arizona (+1400) in the South and Purdue shares the East Region with No. 2 Marquette (+1800). But that’s just one other top-10 team by title odds in the region with the other No. 1 seeds. KU has three.

And a potential matchup with the Huskies would take place in the Sweet 16. The other No. 1 seeds wouldn’t face their toughest challenger until the Elite Eight.

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What the Sweet 16 Odds Say

Houston and Alabama are tied for the best odds (-333) to win their first two games and advance to the Sweet 16. The Cougars are 19.5-point favorites against No. 16 Northern Kentucky and their Round of 32 opponent will be the winner of No. 8 Iowa and No. 9 Auburn, both of which rank outside of the top-25 teams, per KenPom.

The Crimson Tide are a 24-point favorite over No. 16 Texas A&M-CC, the largest spread of the first round. They could be challenged by No. 8 Maryland or No. 9 West Virginia, both top-25 KenPom teams, but the No. 1 overall seed is likely getting past either opponent.

UCLA (-333) has the next-best odds to end up in the Sweet 16 and then Arizona and Kansas are tied (-250). The Jayhawks are 21.5-point favorites against No. 16 Howard and then play the winner of No. 8 Arkansas and No. 9 Illinois in the Round of 32. The Razorbacks have the talent to pull an upset, but KU would still be favored in that contest and it would likely be safe against the Illini.

Purdue (-200) has the worst odds of any of the No. 1 seeds to win its first two games. The Boilermakers’ No. 16 seed opponent is yet to be decided, but assuming they avoid an all-time upset against Fairleigh Dickinson or Texas Southern, they’re in for a tough Round of 32 game against No. 8 Memphis or No. 9 FAU.

Region Odds Spell Trouble for KU, Purdue

The odds to win each region further drive home the difficult road Kansas and Purdue have ahead.

Houston (+120) is the heaviest favorite to win its region, followed by Alabama (+180). Arizona (+450) is a somewhat distant second in the South and Texas (+350) is far enough behind in the Midwest.

Kansas and Purdue, the other two No. 1 seeds, are tied for the next-best odds (+300). But in the West, UCLA (+300) is dead even with KU and the closest team to the Boilermakers in the East is Marquette (+400). Add in Gonzaga (+400) and Connecticut (+450) and that’s four teams in the West with odds shorter than +500 to make the Final Four. And No. 6 TCU (+900) and No. 5 Saint Mary’s (+1100) are also looming.

Purdue similarly has plenty of suitable challengers, including No. 4 Tennessee (+500), No. 5 Duke (+750), No. 6 Kentucky (+850) and No. 3 Kansas State (+900), but there’s no team in the East that the oddsmakers like as much as the Bruins.

Which No. 1 Seed Should You Fade?

Neither Alabama or Houston is upset proof, but they both seem to be safe picks to keep dancing longer than Purdue or Kansas. So, which team will fall first? And just when will it happen?

Given the difficulty of their region, I’m inclined to pick the Jayhawks. There’s so many title contenders in the West and history is not on their side as defending champs. It could happen against Arkansas in the Round of 32 or versus Saint Mary’s or UConn in the Sweet 16.

However, I think the Boilermakers ultimately blink first. I can’t get past that potential second-round matchup with Memphis or FAU, and even if they survive that game, Duke, Tennessee or even Oral Roberts will be waiting in the Sweet 16.

Outside of All-American center Zach Edey, Purdue only has one other double-digit scorer to call upon. The Boilermakers had some close calls in the Big Ten tournament and are 7–4 over their last 11 games after a 22–1 start to the year. They appear to be the most vulnerable of the No. 1 seeds and an early upset is in the cards.

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