Considering Fair and Creative Trade Compensation for Aaron Rodgers

Everyone expects the deal to happen, so how much will the Packers get in return? Plus, answering your questions on Lamar Jackson and more.

Happy St. Pat’s! You have questions, I’ve got answers …

From Dan Vachalek (@Dyhard): Any word on the exact return the Packers are looking for in exchange for Aaron Rodgers? And what has been offered by NYJ so far? With Rodgers out of the NFC North and GB looking to rebuild, where does the rest of the NFC North stand? And is it the Lions’ division to take?

Dan, I’d just say that if the 13th pick was on the table, with maybe a little sweetener, I think the deal would probably be done already. And in calling around, asking teams that are uninvolved what they’d give up, just about everyone said it should be a Day 2 pick this year, fronting a package with a conditional pick or two on the back end. That, to me, is where I think you could get creative.

To me, a fair price would be the Jets’ second-round pick (No. 43) and a conditional pick this year or next or both. One idea could be to have one pick be, at baseline, a third in 2024 that becomes a second if Rodgers makes the Pro Bowl on the original ballot and a first if the Jets get to the Super Bowl (meaning the pick would be, at most, No. 31). Or you could a ’25 pick that rides, in part, on whether he plays in ’24. Or, again, both.

Either way, there’s a deal to be done here, and I do think that, with a couple of days to let things settle, cooler heads will prevail and the GMs, Joe Douglas in New York and Brian Gutekunst in Green Bay, will work something out that makes sense for everyone.

As for your second question, I don’t think this means Green Bay is rebuilding. That roster is still in good shape, with young stars like Jaire Alexander and Rashan Gary (coming off an ACL tear) to build around, and a raft of promising high draft picks on board and developing. If Jordan Love plays well (Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson coming along would help in that regard), the Packers are there with the other three teams in what should be a tight division race, with the Vikings and Lions coming off strong years, and Chicago building.

From Michael Marino (@MarinoMLB): When does Rodgers get done? Is it really 99% complete and just working out the money like some have reported?

Michael, I think trade comp is the last piece. Obviously, now we know Rodgers’s intentions. I also don’t see the contract being a problem for the Jets, after they met with the quarterback. So it’s on the GMs to get a deal done.

From AJ (@VonKlef): Any team not named the Jets that could trade for Rodgers at the 11th hour?

AJ, no. The ship’s sailed on that. The Raiders are one team that investigated everything, but obviously now they’ve gone with Jimmy Garoppolo. I supposed you could get creative and look at ideas like the Commanders or Titans. I’m just not sure, based on where those teams are in building their rosters, that they would want to make that splash, or that Rodgers would necessarily go there. So I think it’s Rodgers or bust …

From riskadvisor (@riskadvisor): Does Lamar Jackson have any option but to go back to the Ravens at this point? Seems like QB-needy teams made their moves or will draft one.

Sure, it’s something someone could consider. It just takes a lot of box-checking for a team to get itself there. Are you willing to run an offense to fit him? Are you comfortable with his injury history? How far are you willing to go on fully guaranteeing a contract, knowing he hasn’t finished either of the last two years, and that running the ball is such a big part of his game? How do you feel about giving up two first-round picks on top of that?

The Ravens, despite all of this, have been all in on Jackson in a lot of ways—from how they run their offense to whom they hire as coaches to which players they acquire—and the reason it’s hard to find suitors for him is because it’s hard to find teams willing to pull so many of those levers at once.

Should someone? Yeah. The Colts would be interesting, particularly if they wait until after the draft to do it (and thus keep the No. 4 pick). I still like the idea of the Commanders, though it doesn’t look like that’ll happen.

I also do understand why teams would be hesitant.

From Anita B. Jainow (@alternateyoshi): Do you take Jalen Carter at 14 if he’s there?

Anita, I’d be turning over absolutely every rock to try to get every answer possible on just who Carter is a player, person and teammate.

What we know is there were serious questions about Carter’s football character and how he’d fit into an NFL team, which scouts harbored in the fall. That changed during the NFL scouting combine when a warrant was issued for his arrest connected to a fatal January crash that killed two members of the Bulldogs’ football program (Carter pleaded no contest to those charges this week).

Less than two weeks later, he showed up to Georgia’s pro day nine pounds heavier than in Indy and struggled to make it through position drills. Those in attendance said Carter looked visibly out of shape.

At this point, that’s who Carter is to NFL teams. And as my old friend Troy Brown, Tom Brady’s first star slot receiver in New England, used to say, “Money only makes you more of what you already are.” So that’s what you have to deal with if you’re a team with a high pick.

The fallout is that teams that thought they’d have no shot at getting Carter—viewed by many as the single most talented player in the draft class—are now turning over every rock so they’ll be prepared if he slides. Now, to be clear, I don’t think he’ll fall out of the first round.

But could this be like what happened with fellow Apopka High alum Warren Sapp in 1994, where the presumptive top talent dropped all the way to No. 12? Sure, I could see that. And I think, to answer your question, Anita, once you get into the teens, the idea of holding your breath and taking him becomes very, very appealing.

From Jp (@utpoz72): Where will D-Hop get traded to?

JP, I’m really not sure. The ask is similar to what the Texans got for DeAndre Hopkins—a second-rounder plus something else of value. And at this point, trading for him would be more complicated than it was then. He’ll turn 31 in June. He’s got a lot of miles on his legs, to the point where he doesn’t practice much and has to be managed through his weeks. And while that’s existed with him for a while, only recently has it cost him time on the field. After missing just two games over his first eight NFL seasons, he’s missed 17 over the last two years (six due to his PED suspension).

He's also due $19.45 million in cash.

That said, when Hopkins has been able to play, he’s been really, really good. If you project his stats from nine games last year over a full 17, he was on pace for a 121-catch, 1,354-yard, six-touchdown season. So the idea of his going to the Jets with Rodgers would be kind of fun. Stylistically, his toughness and grit would project well to Baltimore. We’ll see what happens. But, again, it’s not as simple as pulling up a highlight reel and saying, I want that guy. For the teams involved, there’s a lot more to it than that.

From pat (@yelahtap): People forget how elite JSN was two years ago. Why is his buzz so low? Was probably better than Wilson and Olave during college.

Pat, I do feel relatively qualified to answer this one. It’s interesting because Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave would both say, when all three were in college together, that Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the best of them. And his stats back that up, with the record-breaking sophomore year he had at Ohio State, posting 95 catches, 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns despite having the 10th and 11th picks in the following year’s draft playing in his position group.

So why would Olave and Wilson say what they did? Smith-Njigba is their buddy, of course, so that’s part of it. But it’s also because, as those in the program saw it, Smith-Njigba had maybe the best change-of-direction and ball skills of all of them, and probably the best combination of body control and explosion, too, which is how he distinguished himself in the slot with the other two on the outside.

There are, of course, a couple of things working against Smith-Njigba. One is that he played mostly in the slot and the other two played both inside and out. Another is that Wilson and Olave ran in the 4.3s at the combine (JSN can address this one at his pro day next week). A third is that, while it's impressive he carved out that niche in a loaded receiver room (and was part of why Jameson Williams transferred), he didn’t really have to be the guy in the offense, with coverage geared to stop him on a week-in, week-out basis.

But in the end, I still believe that whoever takes him is gonna get a hyperproductive, chain-moving, difference-making receiver.

From Ricky Dawson (@metmyneeds): Who do you think the Panthers are going to take at the number one draft slot? Thanks.

Ricky, I don’t know, and they don’t know. I understand people are having trouble believing this, but Carolina really did move up feeling very comfortable about a couple of the quarterbacks, while wanting to give the four top guys a fair shot through the process. That’s where the flexibility to trade down comes in: If the Panthers feel like three guys are worthy of the top pick, maybe they’d drop a couple of spots to recoup some of the capital that they gave up in making the trade with the Bears.

The Texans could be an interesting team to keep an eye in that sense. Houston considered moving up to No. 1, and the Bears looked at the double trade scenario, where they’d have gone from one to two to nine. Ultimately, Houston may not have been quite ready to pull the trigger, but if the Texans get hot on, say, Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, it might make sense for them to give up a pick to go up, particularly since they’ve already went through the exercise with Carolina.

Now, if I had to guess? I’d say Young is the leader for the Panthers, but I think Stroud has advocates in the building, and this isn’t close to over yet.

From SuperBeast1239 (@SuperBeast1239): Do/should the Bills make a big trade for Derrick Henry or another player?

Super, no. The Bills are, as I see it, sort of where they are with the current core of players. They’ve rewarded Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Von Miller, Tre’Davious White and Dion Dawkins with contracts befitting cornerstones. They have a second wave of guys who are really good and have deals to match. Their core group is their core group.

So I think it’s on to the draft (mostly) for them.

From Wendell Ferreira (@wendellfp): Do you foresee a scenario where the Packers try to extend Jordan Love as soon as possible?

Wendell, I think they’ll exercise Love’s fifth-year option, which would lock him in for 2024 at a fully guaranteed cost of $20.27 million. It’s a little bit of a risk, of course, without getting to see Love play full time, but it gives the team some control over the situation, with the franchise tag at the position potentially costing $15 million more. And I think the Packers will then let him play, and make a decision on an extension after this season.

Which is to say Love’s got a pretty important stretch of 17 games coming this fall, and for more reasons than one.

From NaronStradomus (@theTNShow): What’s the latest on the Laremy Tunsil trade/contract extension rumors? He wants to reset the market but it doesn’t seem like the Texans are willing to do it and if traded, what type of compensation is expected?

I think the Texans will hang on to Tunsil—they were listening on him, as I understand it, but not shopping him, and the benefit of doing that is getting a valuation of a player. As I see it, the return (and they could get a first-rounder) probably wouldn’t be enough to justify destabilizing your line with a rookie quarterback likely coming in. So I’d agree with Houston’s standing still in this situation and trying to work out an extension with its left tackle.

From Con (@c_mahoney23): Broncos are shifting from pass-first to run-first it seems. How do they rank this year and can Russ mesh with Payton’s system to become a wild-card team?

I think it’s a little strong to say they’re becoming a run-first team, but there’s no question that Sean Payton’s fingerprints are all over the moves the Broncos made this week. The idea that he could trade a receiver while paying linemen Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers very much lines up with how the Saints operated over his 16 years there—they invest and invest and invest up front, with the feel that Payton could figure it out at the skill positions.

It worked, too, for what it’s worth.

All of it should help Russell Wilson. The key, to me, will be how Payton deploys Wilson in the run game and how willing a participant Wilson is in that. In the end, in Seattle, Wilson pushed back on the idea of being such an integral part of the ground game, yearning to prove he could play from the pocket like Tom Brady or Payton Manning. That didn’t go well. So it’ll be interesting to see whether Wilson resets his expectations this year, with a coach coming in who has just as much organizational leverage as he does.

From James (@carphalen5150): Bobby Wagner to the Cowboys? Will it happen this year?

Maybe! Dan Quinn would love to have him, I’m sure.

From Anthony Amico (@amicsta): What is the Will Levis market looking like right now? Feel like there is a ton of chatter about Stroud and Bryce at the top, obviously Richardson has been buzzing since the Combine—but its been relatively quiet on Levis. Is he a faller?

Anthony, it really depends on whom you talk to. Some loved Levin on the field and in interviews—and saw his dip in 2023 as attributable to injuries. Others felt differently. So I’d say his stock held steady at the combine in Indianapolis.

From Nick Miller (@NicholasMMiller): After restructuring his contract rather than an extension, do you really think we are witnessing the last year of Kirk with the Vikings? Does this make the Vikings a team to watch to trade up in the draft to get one of the top guys?

Nick, I think the Vikings are probably through with giving Kirk Cousins big, fully guaranteed contracts. But they really like him, and so the door is open for him to continue as a Viking, under the right circumstances.

I would also say I think the overall focus for Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell this offseason has been, and will continue to be, to get younger across the board. So I think they’ll go into the draft looking for numbers to refresh the roster in a bunch of spots, which you don’t do by making a massive move up. But we’ll see.

From Willie Lutz (@willie_lutz): What do you make of the Chiefs’ gamble on moving Jawaan Taylor to LT with the contract they handed out? Does that feel like sloppy business given that the Bengals ended up paying less for Orlando Brown Jr.?

No, Willie. I think the Chiefs’ move to sign Taylor was done largely to create long-term stability at the position in two ways. One, you know the Chiefs have Taylor for the next four years—and that Brown wasn’t going to be available to Kansas City for the price the Bengals paid him, after how last year’s negotiation went. Two, because they see him as their left tackle, but he’s played in the NFL almost exclusively as a right tackle, they have flexibility to look at left and right tackles at with the 31st pick, and simply pluck the best player.

If they do that, Patrick Mahomes will have his bookends for the foreseeable future whereas, a couple of months ago, they were still in a year-to-year situation with Brown and Andrew Wylie.

From Paul Vieira (@paulvieira): Do the Cardinals hold on to #3 to get the best defensive player on the board, instead of trading down?

Paul, I love the position the Cardinals are in. The top two picks will be quarterbacks. A quarterback-needy team is picking fourth. So if a team wants the third quarterback off the board, it has to call Monti Ossenfort. And if it’s the Colts coming up a spot? Then, Arizona could grab some capital and still get the best nonquarterback in the draft.

It’s a pretty good spot for a first-year GM and first-year coach.