Fast Risers: 2021 Draft Pitchers Climbing the Ladder
Mike Vasil, Photo by Ed Delany of MMO
The Mets 2021 draft was nothing short of incredible. After an initial panic by fans after failing to offer Kumar Rocker a contract, all Mets faithful should be ecstatic about how the draft class is shaping up as they navigate their way up the MiLB ladder towards the MLB summit. While this piece focuses on the pitchers slated for Double-A to start the 2023 season, it is worth mentioning that RHP Calvin Ziegler and MIF Wyatt Young had great 2022 campaigns and LHP Nick Zwack, RHP Carson Seymour, and LHP Keyshawn Askew were wins from a draft and scouting perspective even if they were traded. RHP Trey McLoughlin will likely start in High-A Brooklyn, but he spent time at Driveline this offseason and is another arm to keep an eye on, as his riding four seam starts to climb towards the mid-90’s.
Four pitching prospects from the 2021 draft class will likely start the season on the Double-A Binghamton roster. RHPs Dominic Hamel and Mike Vasil will be in the starting rotation, LHP Nathan Lavender will be in the bullpen, and RHP Christian Scott will vie for a starting role but may take time building up after a spring training injury.
Thus far, Vasil is the gem of the group. He put on a show all season in 2022, including an impressive All-Star stint in the Arizona Fall League. Vasil had 103 K’s in 86.2 IP across all levels of the ’22 season, and while he had a 5.13 ERA in High-A Brooklyn in the second half of last year, his 1.17 WHIP and 0.8 HR/9 rate indicate he had a bit of bad luck. The “bad luck” is backed up by his 3.72 FIP and 3.48 xFIP in Brooklyn, per Fangraphs metrics. Vasil has elite stuff on the mound as he touches 98 mph on his four seam fastball and has shown distinct offspeed shapes, showcasing a sharp low-80’s curveball, an upper 80’s cutter, and solid change-up with good separation from the heater. Like all Mets MiLB arms this spring, Vasil has been working with the new, heralded director of pitching development, Eric Jagers, on sharpening up his arsenal. Vasil has been toying around with a sweeping slider to compliment the downer curveball, and has been less reliant on the cutter. It remains to be seen which pitches he takes to games come April, but due to the velocity and talent in his arm, expect polished weaponry.
#Mets RHP prospect Mike Vasil was solid in his High-A debut, striking out 7 for the Cyclones over 4 IP.
Outside of a home run — his first surrendered as a — Vasil gave up mostly soft contact. pic.twitter.com/nlXgWSFwd8
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) May 29, 2022
Hamel was perhaps the highest-rated prospect following the draft, signing for the most money of any pitcher in this incoming Double-A group at $755K (other bonuses: Vasil $181K, Lavender $125K, Scott $350K). He had an up-and-down season last year, show both flashes of dominance and outings with command issues. Hamel managed to put together a solid 29.4 K% and a 11.4 BB%. His changeup and curveball are solid offerings, used at a combined 21% rate. His primary pitches are his four-seamer with good ride, averaging around 93 mph, and slider with a “slutter” shape at 84 mph. He has already eclipsed his 2022 top velocity of 95.4 this spring, seeing numbers north of 96 mph in his recent outings in St. Lucie. Expect Hamel to be a reliable Double-A arm with potential to make his debut in 2024 as he finds consistency and increased fastball velocity.
Scott also had a turbulent 2022, but his fastball and obvious talent will propel him quickly to Double-A. He had a rough showing in the fall league, sporting a double digit ERA (10.38), and struggled to stay healthy throughout the season. Scott had plenty of success in Low-A and High-A, however, pitching over 30% better than league averages at both levels (xERAs under 70). Unfortunately, his health struggles have continued into this spring, as he has been sidelined since February 17 with a torso injury. In Scott’s last outing, his fastball was cranking in the 94-97 mph range, and his slider got up to 88. He has big league stuff and so long as he stays on the field, he will keep progressing quickly through the system.
Lavender doesn’t quite have the big fastball that the rest in this group do, but he is a clear favorite of skipper Buck Showalter, pitching significantly in 2022 and 2023 MLB spring training games. So far this spring, “Lav” has an impressive stat sheet of 3G, 3IP, 0H, 3BB, 4K. He struck out a massive 34.3% of hitters in 2022, indicating that his low 90’s fastball (60% usage) plays up significantly due to a low 5-foot-4 inch release height, good extension at six-foot-eight, and above average vertical break (~17″). With few lefties in Mets’ system, he has the inside track to a high-leverage relief role in Binghamton.
All four of these arms will likely get their first taste of MLB action sooner rather than later. Whether those debuts come with the Mets or another team following trades for MLB talent, there’s no debate that these players’ rapid ascent play a large part in the Mets rise to No. 5 in Baseball America’s farm system rankings.
*Round of applause for the amateur scouts*
An additional detail worth noting is that this group of progressing and talented arms doesn’t even include the diamond in the rough from the 2021 class, UDFA Grant Hartwig, as he will start the season in Triple-A Syracuse before competing for an MLB call-up this season. Read more here for additional background on Hartwig’s rapid rise.
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