Marin unemployment rate jumps to 3.1% in January

Unemployment rose in California during the first month of the year, with Marin County seeing a 3.1% increase, according to state labor data released on Wednesday.

“It looks like everybody took a hit,” said Randall Weaver, a labor market consultant with the California Employment Development Department.

Marin had the fourth-lowest unemployment rate of all 58 counties in the state in January. San Mateo County had the lowest rate at 2.6% followed by San Francisco at 2.8% and Santa Clara County at 3%.

The statewide rate also rose from 3.9% in December to 4.6% in January, according to the data. The national unemployment rate saw a decrease from December to January, dropping from 3.5% to 3.4% and then increasing to about 3.6% in February.

The California Employment Development Department is set to release February unemployment data on Friday.

Marin is typically among the top counties with the lowest unemployment rate in the state. The rate is based on the employment status of Marin residents, who typically have higher-paying jobs that are not as impacted by economic downturns such as occurred during the pandemic.

For the number of jobs located in Marin, all industry sectors remained static or decreased jobs, Weaver said.

“It’s going to be really interesting to see what February’s numbers look like to see whether that is an anomaly,” Weaver said.

The retail sector dropped about 300 jobs from December to January, which Weaver said is typical after the holiday season. The leisure and hospitality sector, which includes hotels, bars, restaurants and other businesses, was down 600 jobs month over month. Business and professional services jobs, which include most of Marin’s office jobs, we down about 400 jobs month over month and also were down about 300 jobs compared to January 2022, according to Weaver.

Adjusted for seasonal changes in employment at the start of the new year, Marin’s unemployment rate increase is likely not as high, said Marin Economic Forum chief economist Robert Eyler. Marin’s job sector and labor force recovered well though still have not returned to pre-pandemic levels.

“If you look on a year-to-year basis, the Marin County economy has definitely improved for its residents and also the people that work in Marin County,” Eyler said. “2022 was a good year for Marin County, generally speaking.”

Overall, Marin should not expect job growth and a little more unemployment but at a much lower level than statewide, Eyler said.

“Because Marin County is just a more vibrant economy than the state is on average,” he said.

The failure of two U.S. banks this month — Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — are not expected to have a major impact on Marin County employment numbers, Eyler said. The Federal Reserve’s decision to increase its key interest rate by a quarter-percent on Wednesday morning may impact local jobs or hiring decisions among local businesses, he said.

“It slows down growth,” Eyler said. “If it’s going to cost me more to finance growth, the supposition is that I’ll hire at a slower speed than I would have otherwise.”

January unemployment rates

Marin County: 3.1%
Statewide: 4.6%
U.S.: 3.6%

Corte Madera: 3.9%
Fairfax: 7.4%
Inverness: 8.6%
Larkspur: 1.4%
Mill Valley: 2.1%
Novato: 3.2%
Point Reyes Station: 0%
San Anselmo: 2.8%
San Rafael: 2.8%
Sausalito: 3.6%
Tamalpais/Homestead Valley: 2%
Tomales: 0%

Source: California Employment Development Department; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics