The relative age effect is widespread among European adult professional soccer players but does not affect their market value

by Eduard Bezuglov, Ryland Morgans, Mikhail Butovskiy, Anton Emanov, Larisa Shagiakhmetova, Bekzhan Pirmakhanov, Zbigniew Waśkiewicz, Artemii Lazarev

The relative age effect (RAE) is most prevalent in highly competitive youth soccer and persists to a lesser extent in senior soccer. However, it is known that soccer players born in the second half of the year are as successful at senior level, indicating that they are equally talented although under-represented at youth level due to bias during the selection process, in which the emphasis is on more pronounced physical qualities in a specific period of time. Examining the prevalence of the RAE among professional soccer players depending on the level of competition and playing position, as well as analyzing the relationship between the player’s birth quarter and market value, are of scientific interest.

The dates of birth, playing position, and market value of all adult male soccer players included in the final rosters of teams from the top-division of 54 European countries, listed on www.transfermarkt.com on August 15th, 2020, were analyzed (18,429 soccer players in total). All players were categorized into four groups according to the quarter of birth (Q) and playing position. All teams were further sub-divided in groups depending on the soccer clubs’ level of representation in the UEFA Champions League.

Of 18,429 players, 30.9% were born in Q1, 25.7% in Q2, 23.8% in Q3 and 19.6% in Q4. The number of soccer players born in Q1 was lower in less competitive leagues. The number of players born in Q1 decreased as the level of competition decreased; the highest percentage of these players was observed in clubs that are among the top 50 ranked in UEFA or compete in the most prestigious European championships. The RAE was less pronounced in teams that participate in lower competitive championships. There was no significant difference in market value between players playing position and level of competition when born in different quarters. Although, the most expensive soccer players in the European championships were late-born forwards. Players of various groups differed in their market value.

The RAE is currently prevalent in all the most competitive senior soccer leagues and teams in Europe regardless of playing position. There are no significant differences in market value between players of the same playing position and level of competition when born in different quarters. The most expensive soccer players in the European championships are forwards born in Q4. These findings may indicate that the under-representation of “late-born” soccer players in youth, and then consequently in adult soccer, is not associated with lower talent, but with other factors, possibly based on physiological characteristics and socio-cultural factors. Further measures are needed to mitigate the discriminatory effects of selection bias based on the RAE.