Pack Analysis: Scotland Forwards
Another Six Nations tournament is done and once again time to pick over the forward stats from a Scottish point of view. This time we’ll include all Scottish forwards who played more than a collective 40 minutes over the 5 games and we’ll look at carrying, tackling and both positive and negative impacts. We’ll also have some comparisons with the top performers across all teams to gauge how our players stacked up. Stats are all taken from the 6N official site.
Carrying Stats
There are two really easy callouts on this chart and both are up amongst the major positives Scotland can take from the tournament. Jack Dempsey’s carrying was on a different level to pretty much everyone else in the Scotland pack. Other than Pierre Schoeman who I’ll talk about in a minute and Jonny Gray who impressively got through a lot of work in the last two games nobody else carried more often per 80 and he was far more effective than everyone else as well averaging around 7 metres per carry.
If we take a look at the tournament’s top forward carriers below (minimum 100 minutes played with the size of the circle representing the number of minutes played) then Dempsey is right up with the likes of Ireland’s Dan Sheehan and not far off the seriously impressive Lorenzo Cannone of Italy. There are also some impressive numbers from second rows Flament and Chessum too – who both carried more often than any Scottish lock bar Jonny Gray and significantly more effectively as well, up at around 6m per carry.
Schoeman on the other hand didn’t go as far in the carry: on average down at around 4m but he offered himself to make those metres at a rate of just under an unbelievable 16 times per 80 minutes. Again we can compare him to the opposition (minimum 100 minutes again). Ellis Genge and Cyril Baille also feature, showing that Schoeman isn’t the only loosehead who can compete with the back rows that are more common on the chart, and though those back rows may have made more metres per carry nobody can match Schoeman’s workrate. France’s Alldritt, Italy’s Negri, Ireland’s Doris and Wales’ Faletau all show up well as the carrying workhorses in their respective packs. Even the much-maligned Alex Dombrandt is not bad either.
Schoeman and Dempsey have been serious additions to the Scotland pack and provide really strong carrying power from loosehead and number 8 respectively to a degree that previous incumbents haven’t been able to offer.
Others including Watson, Turner, both Fagersons and Jonny Gray all worked hard during the tournament and got through their share but Schoeman and Dempsey’s numbers stand up against anyone else’s in the tournament. I see a fair few comments not impressed with Jonny Gray and Watson and though the latter didn’t play a huge amount they both stack up reasonably well statistically
Perhaps if you don’t have the pinball-style mega carries the rest aren’t as eye-catching.
On a slightly more negative note the contributions of Richie Gray and Gilchrist were both poor when it came to carrying and though they’ve definitely enough else to their game to ensure they’ll both be back in the mix for starting spots, this is a clear area for improvement for the second row.
Did Jonny Gray do enough to suggest it should be him and one from the other two to give us a better balance in the boiler house?
He was not the strongest carrier in terms of metres made but he did put his hand up often and carried hard into traffic during the France, Ireland and Italy games he featured most in.
Personally I’m leaning towards the brothers Gray as our best combination now with Richie’s set-piece ability and Gray’s work-rate looking a good combination. If we could unearth a second row who carried as much as Gray but a bit more powerfully, making a couple more metres on average per-carry it would be a major plus equivalent to the impact Schoeman and Dempsey have had in their positions.
Tackle Stats
| Nation | Tackles Made | Tackles Missed | Tackle Success % |
| England | 706 | 147 | 83% |
| France | 822 | 102 | 89% |
| Ireland | 705 | 121 | 85% |
| Italy | 694 | 127 | 85% |
| Scotland | 831 | 78 | 91% |
| Wales | 742 | 144 | 84% |
Moving onto more defensive stats and first of all, the effort in this aspect of the game from Scotland’s forwards was pretty outrageous as you can see above. No set of forwards made more tackles and no pack missed less either. Scotland’s success in the first two games was built on very solid defence and high workrate off the ball from the forwards and even as the tournament drew on and tougher opposition materialised in France and then Ireland the pack were able to maintain an extremely high level here and it’s a major strength of the team.
There used to be a time when Jonny Gray and Hamish Watson would wow with their 100% success rates in the tackle. Impressively 7 players were able to maintain such a high level during the tournament and only a single player dropped below 90%. If you’re looking for Jonny Gray he came in for Grant Gilchrist to start the last two matches and picked up almost exactly where Gilchrist left off with both averaging around 17 per 80 with none missed and Jonny is tucked in underneath his fellow lock on the chart.
A word also for Ewan Ashman who didn’t play enough minutes to make the chart but also managed 100% making 11 tackles in just 30 minutes during the rearguard effort against Italy, that sort of impact will bode well for his future prospects. George Turner is a really dynamic player who provides a lot of upside but has been near the bottom of Scotland’s tackle success percentages after both the Autumn and 6 Nations tournaments. Ashman is equally as powerful a carrier and offering a stronger defensive contribution could give him the edge if he wants to usurp the current first-choice hooker.
Moving on, if Dempsey’s carrying impact perhaps wasn’t surprising given that’s what he’s renowned for afterall, a serious bonus for Scotland was his impact in defence. 55 tackles at a 98% success rate and at a rate of just under 19 per 80 minutes is seriously impressive. After the Autumn Nations I thought Fagerson would be hard to shift from the 8 shirt because of his workrate on both sides of the ball but Dempsey has stepped into that position and made the shirt his own without a doubt. He’s added power to our carrying game with no let-up in graft.
A quick look at the best defenders in the tournament (minimum 50 tackles and 90% success rate and this time the size of the circle indicates the number of tackles):
Matt Fagerson may have been overshadowed a bit by Dempsey but he still led the tournament with 83 successful tackles so unsurprisingly does well here with Dempsey, Ritchie and Gray also featuring, a tackle success rate just under 94% isn’t bad at all and provides some good context for how strong some of the other performances on this chart are.
Cannone had a brilliant tournament and again shows up well as do several other unsurprising names like the excellent James Ryan and Josh van der Flier of Ireland and Thibaud Flament who was monstrously dynamic in the French second row.
Positive Impacts
For the next two areas we’ll focus purely on Scotland. As in the Autumn, Jamie Ritchie carried the majority of the team’s turnover threat leading the way with 5 and he also pitched in with his share of other impacts to lead the team in terms of positive actions. There was actually a reasonable spread of turnovers across all the forwards and unsurprisingly given their carrying stats both Schoeman and Dempsey left some bruised shoulders with 7 and 8 broken tackles respectively.
Again unsurprisingly given their roles in the side and eye-catching dynamism George Turner and Matt Fagerson provided a good amount of impact on both sides of the ball but I’ve got to mention Jonny Gray here as well. Gilchrist and brother Richie clearly provide a big upside for Scotland with their experience and line out ability but I think Jonny made a good effort towards putting his best foot forward in their absence. We’ve already seen his defence was as solid as usual and he put his hand up to carry often and where the metres were the hardest to make in the tight. But he’s also contributed significantly in terms of dominant tackles with a team-leading 6 and a couple of turnovers and offloads to boot. He even broke a tackle as well!
Negative Impacts
Matt Fagerson made an impressive attempt to rack up his penalty count off the bench against Italy, he was squeaky clean in terms of errors in the Autumn but he’s not had the same luck in the Six Nations matching Jamie Ritchie with 16 negative impacts, and he’ll need to reverse that trend if he wants the 8 shirt back off Dempsey in the future. Both he and Ritchie I’m sure will be focused on cutting out these errors going forwards, Ritchie will always cop a few at the breakdown but will be frustrated to have been penalised for dissent and marched back by the referee on more than one occasion, though he’s learning as captain all the time and in general I believe conducts himself well. The tight 5 collectively did well here, Turner carries hard and often so the handling errors are perhaps to be expected but everyone else kept the errors to a minimum. Schoeman and Zander Fagerson got through a lot of minutes and mountains of work and rarely made mistakes and keeping the scrum penalties down to 2 apiece is impressive as well. The scrum finished on a high against Italy.
Summary
In my opinion, the end result of this tournament was about where we expected. A little way off France and Ireland but better than the rest for now. I do think though that there are several positives and additionally some work-ons that we can identify. Starting with the positives:
- Dempsey stepped up to the plate as a top class 8. Whether it was ball in hand or in defence Dempsey’s impact stacks up against the best in the tournament and he looks cemented in as first choice 8 now.
- Matt Fagerson might have lost the 8 shirt for now but he’s still one of our best players and Luke Crosbie didn’t look out of place either. Factor in Rory Darge on the injury comeback trail and depth in the back row looks really strong.
- Collectively as a defensive unit the pack is outstanding and this should give us a really strong foundation to build on. The stats available don’t always shine a light on the set piece in the same way but the scrum whilst Fagerson and Schoeman are on has been very good and the lineout when Richie Gray is playing looks stable too.
In terms of the work-ons:
- I think the dependence on the starting props is a concern. In terms of props, only Andrew Porter played more minutes than Schoeman (probably also indicating a similar reliance for Ireland). On the other side of the scrum Zander Fagerson played 250 of the 320 minutes possible, after missing the opening game against England. Both played well throughout the tournament but there is a clear drop-off when they’re replaced – never more clear than their early removal against Ireland in the 53rd minute.
WP Nel is still fine at scrum time but his carrying stats are some way off Fagerson. Both Bhatti and Berghan look solid at best off the bench to me – fine against most but not really showing evidence of being strong impact players able to pick up where Fagerson or Schoeman leave off when we need to go toe to toe with the likes of Ireland or South Africa for 80 minutes.
At loosehead a fully fit and firing Rory Sutherland would be a real plus point on the bench as would Oli Kebble finding his best form. Kebble is a giant of a man and at his best was a real force in both the scrum and in the loose so fingers crossed he comes again. At tighthead the cupboard looks bare but I think we can only hope that Murphy Walker can return to fitness and gets the gametime needed to build on his early promise. He can both scrummage destructively and be dynamic in the loose so would add to the bench if he carries on fulfilling his potential.
- I called out the second row as an area of potential improvement after the Autumn Nations and I’m still not sure we’ve got enough from this area. Richie Gray’s return has been very welcome and he’s nailed on, the set piece functions so much better with him in the side and he generally puts himself about enough so one slot is sorted. But Gilchrist I’m more dubious of, maybe I’m harsh because he works very hard and his defensive impact is good. He’s also a leader and may be contributing in ways not tangible in the above stats. But his carrying was non-existent during the first couple games and historically hasn’t been a strong point of his either, during the Autumn both he and Richie Gray carried less times per 80 than Jonny as well.
Perhaps I’m harsh but I think we need more, especially when you look at what England got from Chessum and France from Flament. Skinner and Cummings didn’t really get enough opportunity to show what they can offer but I think Jonny Gray did pretty well. His workrate belied his lumbering frame and he clearly offered more ball in hand than Gilchrist which I think is vital if we’re not to become completely and predictably dependant on Schoeman (and to a lesser extent the rest of the frontrow) and Dempsey to make the hard yards. As an example his 43 metres made against Italy’s reasonably robust defence close into the ruck (second only to Dempsey and Schoeman) was a welcome addition and if he can contribute those numbers more often it would help balance the carrying workload amongst the pack much more evenly.
As I said I think both Grays are our best bet currently but the likes of Cummings and Skinner could add massively to the pack if they can combine defensive workrate and set piece ability with a strong carrying offering as Jonny may not be the answer either.
I actually suspect Gilchrist will return to the second row alongside Richie Gray but hope the pairing can step up to share the load when it comes to carrying going forwards to a greater extent.
Just to deep dive into the carrying from the second row a bit I’ve pulled together the carrying stats from last year’s 6N, the Summer tour games against Argentina, the Autumn Internationals and this years 6N.
I’ve excluded Jamie Hodgson and Glen Young as neither played more than 100 minutes. So I’ve been championing Jonny Gray but he’s actually been the least effective carrier in terms of metres per carry. I’m going to argue he was slightly more effective, creeping towards 4m per carry during the 6 Nations just gone but the stats do tell unarguably he’s in a league of his own in terms of carrying workrate. He’s carrying around twice as often on average as any of our other selections at lock.
To look at this another way: I’ve also looked at the percentage of these appearances where they’ve played at least 40 minutes and hit the 20 metre mark for metres carried. Sam Skinner actually comes out on top here, making at least 20 metres 4 out of the 5 times he’s played 40 minutes or more. Jonny comes in second at 62.5% whilst Gilchrist, Richie Gray and Cummings hit 23%, 20% and 0% respectively. I think that’s interesting and it does open up the conversation a bit. For me we need the sheer workrate of Jonny in the second row to take the pressure off of the likes of Dempsey and Schoeman as Richie Gray and Gilchrist just aren’t big contributors ball in hand. Skinner is effective though, could he be tasked with carrying more? Or Could Jonny add more oomph per carry getting his average per carry up over 4? Could someone else be even more effective or am I discounting Gilchrist too quickly or ignoring the rest of his game? What do you think?
That’s everything from me this time but as always all feedback welcome and I’m really interested in your thoughts on the pack’s performance over the 6 Nations.
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