MMO 2023 NL East Preview: Miami Marlins

The National League East projects out to be one of the best divisions in baseball. With that in mind, and the fact the regular season is just a few days away, let’s take a look at each of the teams. First up, a team that projects to be in the bottom two.

The Miami Marlins went into the 2022 season with high hopes of obtaining a wild-card spot. Already loaded with young pitching, the Marlins brought in Jorge Soler, Avisaíl García, and Jacob Stallings to retool their offense. However, the product of their highly-praised offseason was a failure as the team dealt with underperformance and injury throughout the entire season.

After finishing the 2022 season with a 69-93 record, major changes occurred during the offseason. The Marlins parted ways with Don Mattingly — who won NL Manager of the Year in 2020 — and replaced him with Skip Schumaker, who has never managed in Major League Baseball. The fish also made seven trades, bringing in players, both hitters, and pitchers, to improve a mediocre lineup and bullpen from the season before.

It seems like the Marlins go through a metamorphosis every offseason. After trading for multiple bullpen arms and the reigning AL batting champ Luis Arráez, only one question remains. Is this the year they sneak into the playoffs?

Projected Lineup (Fan Graphs)

1.  Luis Arráez – 2B
2.  Jazz Chisholm Jr. – CF
3.  Jorge Soler – DH
4.  Garrett Cooper – 1B
5.  Avisaíl García – RF
6.  Jean Segura – 3B
7.  Jesús Sánchez – LF
8.  Jacob Stallings – C
9.  Joey Wendle – SS

Lineup Assessment

The Marlins’ offense looks decent on paper.

Arráez — the major acquisition the Marlins got from the Twins for Pablo López — is a huge presence at the top of the  lineup. He led the American League with a .313 batting average in 2022, while also walking at a higher percentage than he struck out. There’s no reason to believe Arráez’s 2022 season was a fluke as well, the former Twin holds a career .314 batting average, .374 OBP, and 120 OPS+.

With a real answer at the top of the lineup, the Marlins have the luxury of moving Chisholm Jr. to the second spot in their lineup. While Chisholm is electric on the base paths and gets on base at a .325 clip, he was the Marlins’ only real power threat in 2022. Although he only played in 60 games, Chisholm hit 14 home runs — the second most on the team — and finished with a team-leading .535 slugging percentage. By moving him to the second spot in the lineup, the Marlins can maximize Chisholm’s power potential without striping him of his most valuable tool. His speed.

After Chisholm, the middle of the lineup is filled with “what-ifs.” Soler and García — who played 72 and 98 games respectively —  need to have bounce-back seasons for the Marlins to succeed. That may seem like a big ask, after García recorded a 65 OPS+ and Soler slugged .400. However, if both of them return to their 2021 selves, the Marlins will have a formidable top of the lineup.

The bottom of the lineup also looks underrated. Segura — who was signed to play third base — had a good run with the Phillies. From 2019-2022, Segura recorded a .755 OPS while striking out only 14.2% of the time. Behind him is Sánchez, who could potentially have a break-out season. The 25-year-old was in the 96th percentile for max. exit velocity in 2022 and has lowered his strikeout percentage every year in the league. If he can stay healthy, Sánchez has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs out of the seventh spot in the lineup. Wendle is also worth mentioning for the Marlins due to his past OBP success. If he can record an above .300 OBP again in 2023, the Marlins’ lineup turnover consistently.

The Marlins’ offense is the definition of pesky. They’re going to get on base, steal bags, and record base hits. However, everything mentioned is contingent on health. The only Marlin to play in over 119 games in 2022 was Miguel Rojas, and he was traded to the Dodgers in the offseason. Again, if Chisholm Jr. plays 140 games, and García returns to the player he was in 2021, this lineup may produce runs.

Players Lost

The term lost may not apply to the Marlins, since all their notable players not returning were traded away.

López was moved to the Twins — along with prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio — for Arráez. The trade helped both sides, as the Marlins needed a proven MLB bat to deepen their lineup, and the Twins needed another front-line starting pitcher. While losing López hurts any rotation, the Marlins have a plethora of young and talented starting pitchers. They easily gained more than they lost by acquiring Arráez.

Another player the Marlins lost by trade was Rojas, who was traded to the Dodgers for prospect Jacob Amaya. Rojas — who had been a Marlin since 2015 — was the unofficial captain of the team under Mattingly, and the last remaining piece of the Giancarlo Stanton Marlins. While Rojas’ bat was average at best, he was stellar in the field and was in the 98th percentile for outs above average.

The other notable Marlins lost were Brian Anderson, JJ Bleday, and Richard Bleier. Anderson — who hasn’t played in over 100 games since 2019 — was picked up by the Milwaukee Brewers after being non-tendered. Bleday and Bleier were moved in separate deals to bring in bullpen pieces, with the more surprising move being Bleday — who was the Marlins’ first-round draft pick in 2019.

Pitching

The Marlins’ greatest strength is their starting pitching. In fact, they may have one of the best, young rotations in baseball:

• Sandy Alcántara (228 2/3 IP, 2.28 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 8.0 bWAR)
• Jesús Luzardo (100 1/3 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 2.0 bWAR)
• Johnny Cueto (158 1/3 IP, 3.35 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.5 bWAR)
• Trevor Rogers (107 IP, 5.47 ERA, 4.35 FIP, -0.6 bWAR)
• Edward Cabrera (71 2/3 IP, 3.01 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 2.1 bWAR)

Braxton Garrett is the next man up in the Marlins’ rotation. The left-handed pitcher had a 3.58 ERA and 9.2 SO/9 in 88 IP last season. Sixto Sánchez is also on his way back from injury and is a threat to make the rotation. The former top prospect hasn’t pitched since 2020 and is aiming to return sometime during the summer.

A rotation doesn’t get any better when it starts with the reigning NL Cy Young. Alcántara was lights-out last season, leading the league in batters faced, innings, and complete games in 2022. The only negative coming into 2023 with Alcántara is his previous workload. The Marlins’ ace has thrown over 200 innings in consecutive seasons, and it may affect him this season.

Cueto was an underrated addition to the Marlins’ rotation during the offseason. Firstly, it allowed the Marlins to comfortably move López to acquire Arraez. Secondly, Cueto had a sneaky good season for a White Sox team that struggled in 2022. Even if the Marlins don’t get Cueto’s sub-4.00 ERA in 2023, his mentorship and leadership of the Marlins’ young (and prominently Latino) pitchers will pay dividends.

Luzardo, Rogers, and Cabrera fill out the rest of the Marlins rotation. The three of them are all 24 years old, meaning, we haven’t seen the best of them. While Luzardo and Rogers are trending in different directions, the name to focus on is Cabrera. The right-handed starter finished in the 86th percentile for whiff rate, mainly dominating with his 96-mph four-seamer and 86-mph slider. The only thing between Cabrera and stardom is his control, which parked him in the 8th percentile for walks. If Cabrera progresses the same way the other young pitchers have in Miami, the Marlins could compete with the Brewers for the best rotation in baseball.

The big question mark for the Marlins in 2023 will be their bullpen, which they attempted to fix in the offseason by acquiring A.J. Puk, Matt Barnes, and JT Chargois in various trades. While Dylan Floro and Tanner Scott shared the save opportunities in 2022, the Marlins’ are leaning towards a committee this season rather than a singular player. Bullpens are volatile, and the Marlins’ team could drastically change if their offseason additions have good seasons.

Top Prospects

The Marlins’ farm system is top-heavy and ready to make a difference during the 2023 season. Headlining the farm is 19-year-old Eury Pérez, whose debut in 2023 seems inevitable. If the Marlins have an injury to their rotation or need help in the bullpen, we could see the 13th-ranked prospect in MLB make his debut.

Three interesting names to look out for in 2023 are Jordan Groshans, Amaya, and Xavier Edwards. All three of them are 3B/SS prospects who could fill in for various Marlins’ infielders if they run into injuries. Looking at the 2022 games played for the entire Marlins’ roster, this situation seems almost inevitable. Amaya — a pure shortstop prospect — is the most likely to make his debut out of the three prospects. Wendle is injury prone and playing a secondary position at shortstop, leaving the door open for the former Dodgers prospect.

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