A dialogue is vital to set policy directions

In complex, challenging conditions, political confrontations and even armed conflicts tend to end in a stalemate. Then, finally, the most contentious issues are settled on the negotiating table.

It would be pertinent to note that the move for a dialogue between the PDM government and the PTI was initiated when the police and the PTI workers were engaged in one of their worst street confrontations. And the country, trapped in a political stalemate and economic stagnation, was sinking into a deepening quagmire.

Yet the government’s dialogue initiative seems to have been somewhat eclipsed by political confusion, particularly by the apparent official anti-democratic move to arrest ex-prime minister Imran Khan or ban PTI. The political confrontation between the two main political rivals and the all-pervasive polarisation in the country seems to already push the ‘neutrals’ into political territory.

In two high-level meetings chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, one of which was attended by two top military officials, it was agreed that elections to all assemblies should be held simultaneously.

The government’s initiative seems to have been somewhat eclipsed by political confusion, particularly by the apparent official anti-democratic move to arrest Imran Khan

In a citizen-based democracy, political parties compete to promote the welfare of their voters, which helps them build a strong political base. Poor government performance, however, results in economic and political instability, as witnessed now.

The quagmire in which the country has landed underlines the need for all movers and shakers of the economy to evolve a consensus, to begin with, on a common minimum national agenda. In economics, the top priority must be developing a strategy and a roadmap to achieve sustainable, inclusive and indigenous development with macroeconomic stability. That can happen only through democratic governance.

The deepening political polarisation, stalemate and stagnation and the corresponding worsening economic crises are two faces of the coin. To put the political economy on an even keel, political and economic solutions must be synchronised and implemented simultaneously and effectively.

To strengthen democratic norms in politics, the first priority in any dialogue should be accorded to settling issues relating to the election process and fixing the national election date.

Confronted by the complex ground realities, the PDM and PTI leadership seem to be possibly aware that they would not gain anything, and both may ultimately suffer. The lame-duck PML-led government urgently needs to bring down the political temperature to provide breathing space to the economy.

Seeing things in this context is the Planning Commission’s initiative to launch a study on Vision 2035 and Vision 2047 aimed at identifying policy choices in consultations with all the stakeholders and adopting a roadmap for swift socio-economic development.

Officials say the findings and the recommendations of the study will be shared with political leadership so that a national consensus is built on how to steer the country towards sustainable economic prosperity despite uncertainties along the way.

The future needs assessment and targeting setting in Pakistan Outlook 2035 will be done based on the following pillars: developing human and social capital, achieving sustained, indigenous and inclusive growth, democratic governance, institutional reforms and modernisation of the public sector, energy, water and food security, private sector and entrepreneurship-led growth, developing a competitive knowledge economy through value-addition, modernising transportation infrastructure, and greater regional connectivity.

Going by the selected topics, officials say the needs assessment and target setting will be done based on two scenarios — the business-as-usual scenario and the aspirational or transformation scenario.

Faced with multiple crises that cannot be resolved in the short term, the next elected government, however much trusted by the people, is likely to lose its political capital sooner than later, as PML-N did in Punjab. Its economic performance has to meet the expectations and aspirations of the people, without which there can be no political stability.

If there is a political consensus on crucial issues on how to put things right, the possibility of fair and free elections putting in place a resuscitated sovereign parliament will improve. That is needed to empower the next elected government to make policies and enforce them more effectively.

Regarding the current state of affairs, analyst Durdana Najam says, “The place where the politicians belong, where matters related to the people of Pakistan belong, from where emanates rule of law to govern the country, is deserted.”

Imran Khan has agreed to a multiparty moot for the sake of “greater national consensus” on elections. He was convinced by a civil society delegation calling itself “mediators” that other parties were also stakeholders in the political and electoral process. The PTI chairman also wants the government to take confidence-building measures.

All independent political parties need to cooperate with each for evolving a common minimum national agenda while pursuing their maximum programme, with the overriding objective of working for the common good.

Earlier, the PTI chairman had indicated his willingness to talk to “anyone” for “the country’s progress, interest and democracy”. Even otherwise, the former prime minister has been reviewing and changing his party’s policies with baffling flexibility.

Adhering to democratic norms on a selective basis, he was willing to talk to anyone except the ‘thieves’ in power. That included talking to the ‘neutrals’ whom he had constantly been blaming for the ouster of his government through a vote of no-confidence. He was reportedly advised to talk to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Generally, the yawning “trust gap” between the two major political rivals is seen as a formidable barrier to overcome in any possible negotiation. But at the same time, analysts suggest that the opportunity should be seized by both hands.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, March 27th, 2023