MMO 2023 NL East Preview: Atlanta Braves
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The start of the 2023 MLB Season is just days away. We are continuing our NL East preview here at Metsmerized with the Atlanta Braves, the reigning division champions.
Atlanta spent most of last season trailing the New York Mets in the division, but a sensational run from June through September helped the Braves erase a 10.5-game lead to win the NL East pennant. They failed to continue that momentum in the playoffs though, as the Philadelphia Phillies defeated them in the National League Divisional Series, three games to one.
The Braves bring back much of the same roster from a season ago, with the most notable departure being shortstop Dansby Swanson, who signed a seven-year, $177 million deal with the Chicago Cubs. Expect to see Atlanta in the race for another division title under the management of Brian Snitker.
Projected Starting Lineup (per Roto Champ)
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Ronald Acuña Jr. – RF
- Matt Olson – 1B
- Austin Riley – 3B
- Sean Murphy – C
- Michael Harris II – CF
- Ozzie Albies – 2B
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Marcell Ozuna – DH
- Eddie Rosario – LF
- Orlando Arcia – SS
Lineup Assessment
The Braves continue to put out a lineup that is one of the best in all of baseball, each and every year. Having a guy like Ronald Acuña Jr. at the top of the order is a nightmare for opposing pitchers. The outfielder was still recovering from a torn ACL as the 2022 season began, an injury he had to monitor throughout the year. It showed in his numbers, as he finished the season slashing .266/.351/.413 for a career-low .764 OPS. With Acuña at or near 100 percent following his run with Venezuela at the World Baseball Classic earlier this month, expect to see him have the type of season that will put him in the MVP conversation.
Matt Olson may not have had the overall numbers he would’ve liked at the plate last season (.240 AVG and a career-high 170 strikeouts), but the power was certainly there for the Atlanta native. The first baseman had 34 home runs and 103 runs batted in with an OPS at .802. Olson not only plays great defense, but he is always in the lineup, playing in all 162 games last season. Austin Riley is already one of the best third baseman in all of baseball at the age of 25. The 2015 first round draft pick finished sixth in MVP voting for the 2022 season, slashing .273/.349/.528 with 38 home runs and 93 runs batted in. Riley may not get as much attention as other stars, but he is in for another stellar season with the Braves.
Sean Murphy going from the Oakland Athletics to the Braves wound up being one of the more underrated moves of the offseason. The catcher is best known for what he does behind the plate, although he does have some power in the tank (35 home runs over the last two years). Travis d’Arnaud has been a solid piece in the Braves lineup for the last three years, but the addition of Murphy may send the former Met to more of a part-time role.
The play of Michael Harris II was maybe the biggest reason why the Braves won the division in 2022, despite being a rookie with 114 games of MLB experience. His speed and ability to track balls in either gap may put him in a position to win a Gold Glove in his first full season. Ozzie Albies was limited to 64 games last year, missing time with a broken foot and a fractured finger. The health of the two-time All-Star will be a major talking point for the Braves throughout the season.
Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario and Orlando Arcia round out the lineup for Atlanta. All there of those guys had down seasons in 2022, so the Braves will be looking from them bounce back. If Arcia is unable to provide enough from the shortstop position, Vaughn Grissom may get another shot to be an everyday starter.
Players Lost
The loss of Dansby Swanson is a big one, especially considering how far he has come as a pure hitter. Replacing his qualities will have to be done by committee, given the inconsistencies of Arcia and Grissom. Backup catcher William Contreras was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers and outfielders Robbie Grossman and Adam Duvall signed with other teams in free agency.
Kenley Jansen was the team’s closer in 2022, but he opted to sign a deal with the Boston Red Sox. His absence should not create too many problems, as Raisel Iglesias can set right back in as a closer. Starter/long reliever Jake Odorizzi elected to sign with the Texas Rangers in free agency.
Pitching
Here at the Braves’ five projected starters (2022 statistics in parentheses)
- Max Fried (14-7, 185 1/3 IP, 2.48 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 5.0 fWAR)
- Spencer Strider (11-5, 131 2/3 IP, 2.67 ERA, 1.83 FIP, 4.9 fWAR)
- Kyle Wright (21-5, 180 1/3 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 2.9 fWAR)
- Charlie Morton (9-6, 172 IP, 4.34 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 1.5 fWAR)
- Jared Shuster (In AA & AAA: 7-10, 139 1/3 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.048 WHIP)
The fifth spot in the Braves rotation is up for grabs, although it does sound like Shuster may get the first shot at it. The No. 1 prospect in the Braves system pitched to a 1.45 ERA in 18 2/3 innings this spring, catching the eyes of many within the organization. If the young lefty does struggle to begin the year, the team can go Huascar Ynoa, a guy who had a lot of success in 2021 (4-6, 91 IP, 4.05 ERA).
Two additional pitchers to keep an eye on throughout the season are Ian Anderson and Mike Soroka. Anderson shined as a rookie in 2020, but his struggles in the early portion of last season resulted in the right-hander finishing the year in AAA. If he can regain the stuff he showed during the 60-game season (3-2, 32 1/3 IP, 1.95 ERA), he may find himself back in the rotation. Soroka has a much different story, as he burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2018, and was even a National League All-Star the following year. But injuries have stunted his growth, as the pitcher has missed the entirety of the last two seasons.
Atlanta has quite a few weapons in the bullpen, with Raisel Iglesias holding it down in the ninth. The former Los Angeles Angel is not the only dominant arm, as A.J. Minter pitched to a 2.06 ERA in 70 innings of work last season. Expect to see guys like Collin McHugh and newly-signed Lucas Luetge have important roles in their bullpen as well. The x-factor is Kirby Yates, who threw just seven innings last season. The one-time All-Star has been a dominant reliever in the past, although injuries have kept him off the mound for the majority of the last two years.
Top Prospects
Shuster was mentioned above as a guy who can crack into the rotation to begin the season, but even if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, Braves fans should expect to see him in 2023. Many of their other top prospects are a few years away from appearing in the majors. One guy to keep an eye on is No. 6 prospect Braden Shewmake, who can play either middle infield position. If the Braves are unable to find production from that shortstop position, he may get a look in the middle of the season. No. 8 prospect Darius Vines could get a call-up to help the Braves in the bullpen, as he is expected to make his major league debut at some point in 2023. Dylan Dodd, a left-handed pitcher and their No. 10 prospect is someone to watch out for. The 2021 third round draft pick has pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings during spring training.
Top prospects in the Atlanta Braves system have shined early in their careers, with Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider being the two most recent examples. It would not be a surprise if someone like Shuster and Shewmake makes an immediate impact during the 2023 season.
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