MMO 2023 NL East Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

We have finally made it to Opening Day, and next up on our preview of the National League East is the defending National League Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.

The 2022 Phillies had a rollercoaster season. After starting the year 21-29, they fired Joe Girardi and hired Rob Thomson to be the interim manager. Under Thomson, the Phillies went 65-46, and claimed the final Wild Card in the National League. The Phillies struggled down the stretch, going 14-17 to finish the season and holding their Wild Card spot by just one game over the Brewers. Despite the slow finish, the Phillies caught fire in the Postseason. They beat the Cardinals, Braves and Padres on their way to their first pennant since 2009, but their Cinderella run was cut short by the Houston Astros in the World Series.

Looking to build off their success, the Phillies made big moves to improve their roster. They signed Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker, and traded for Gregory Soto.

Projected Starting Lineup (per Roto Champ)

1.  Trea Turner – SS
2. Kyle Schwarber – DH
3. J.T. Realmuto – C
4. Darick Hall – 1B
5. Nick Castellanos -OF
6. Bryson Stott – 2B
7. Alec Bohm – 3B
8. Jake Cave – OF
9. Brandon Marsh – OF

Lineup Assessment 

The Phillies’ lineup still has three terrific hitters at the top of the order, but injuries have severely hurt the overall depth of the lineup. The most notable absence is 2021 MVP Bryce Harper, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. The star right fielder is not expected to return until near the All-Star break, but the Phillies decided not to put him in the 60-day IL in hopes of him returning sooner. Jake Cave has had a terrific spring, but considering he has a .614 OPS over the last three years, the Phillies will most likely have a hard time making up for Harper’s bat in his absence.

The Phillies lost another of their big bats just a week before Opening Day when Rhys Hoskins tore his left ACL while fielding a ball in a spring game. With Hoskins out for the year, Darick Hall will be the primary first baseman in Philadelphia. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and hit .254/.282/.522 with nine home runs in 41 games. Hall profiles similarly to Hoskins as hitters who won’t hit for a great average but will provide home runs. The main difference between the two is while Hoskins was on of baseball’s best at drawing walks, Hall had just a 3.5 walk percentage last season. Hall will run into some homers, but Hoskins’ ability to get on base will be missed by the Phillies in 2023.

Although they are missing two significant bats, the Phillies will be adding one of the league’s best in Trea Turner, who signed an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Phillies this winter. Turner is the full package as a hitter. He hit .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases for the Dodgers in 2022. With the move to Citizen’s Bank Park and the new enlarged bases, a 30-30 season is not out of the question for the Phillies’ new shortstop.

Right behind Turner in the lineup is Kyle Schwarber, the NL leader in home runs in 2022 with 46. Schwarber has been the epitome of three true outcome hitting. He hit just .218 last season while striking out 200 times, but he was sixth in baseball with 86 walks. With the shift being banned in 2023, Schwarber is a sure to benefit from a few extra-base hits to go with all the walks and home runs.

J.T. Realmuto re-established himself as the best catcher in baseball in 2022. The Phillies’ backstop hit .276/.342/.478 and recorded his first 20-20 season with 22 home runs and 21 stolen bases. He also took home his second career Gold Glove Award. Despite playing the most physical demanding position, he has played in at least 125 games (not including 2020) in every year since his first full season in 2015.

Until Harper returns, the lineup will take a significant hit after the top three. After Hall, Castellanos will be looking to bounce back after struggling in his first year in Philadelphia. His OPS dropped from .939 in 2021 to just .694 in 2022, and his home run total dropped from 34 to 13. He hit three home runs and hit to an OPS of .842 in spring, but his average was just .235, so the Phillies will have to hope that he can find the production he provided in Cincinnati to help them stay in the division race.

After Castellanos, the lineup is fairly underwhelming for a team coming off a pennant. Stott, Bohm, Cave and Marsh were all below league average based on their wRC+ in 2022. They traded for Cristian Pache on the eve of Opening Day, but the former top prospect has hit just .156 in his MLB career.

Players Lost

The Phillies did not lose any major players from their 2022 team, but they lost some of their pitching depth. Zach Eflin, Brad Hand, Kyle Gibson, Noah Syndergaard, David Robertson and Corey Knebel all departed in free agency this past offseason. While the team has made moves to make up for some of the arms they lost, we will have to wait and see if the quality-over-quantity approach helps the Phillies’ pitching staff.

Jean Segura, the team’s starting second baseman for the past four seasons, signed a two-year deal to join the Miami Marlins. He is likely the most significant player to depart from Philadelphia this year, but with the addition of Turner, the Phillies should be more than happy with the production they got from their middle infield.

 Pitching

• Aaron Nola (11-13, 205 IP, 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 6.3 fWAR)
• Zack Wheeler (12-7, 153 IP, 2.82 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 4.1 fWAR)
• Taijuan Walker (12-5, 157 1/3 IP, 3.49 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 2.5 fWAR)
• Bailey Falter (6-4, 84 IP, 3.86 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 0.6 fWAR)
• Matt Strahm (4-4, 44 2/3 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 0.3 fWAR)

Like the lineup, the Phillies’ rotation starts incredibly strong before being depleted on the backend due to injuries. Ranger Suárez was expected to open the season as the Phillies’ fourth starter, but after experiencing forearm tightness in the World Baseball Classic, it is unclear when his season will start. Andrew Painter, the Phillies’ top pitching prospect and one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, entered spring with a chance to win the fifth spot in the rotation before a UCL sprain erased any hope of him being on the Opening Day roster. With those two pitchers down, the back of the rotation will feature Bailey Falter and Matt Strahm. The two left-handers are far from sure things, but until Suarez is back on the mound, the Phillies will need both of them to hold the fort.

At the top of the rotation, the Phillies have two of baseball’s best Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. The co-aces are both workhorses that give their team a chance to win any night they take the mound. Even without Harper and Hoskins, the Phillies will be in the playoff hunt with these two pitching every five days.

While it may not be a Trea Turner sized splash, the Phillies signing Taijuan Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract was a great move for their pitching depth. Walker will undoubtedly be the third-best starter in the Phillies’ rotation, and he will give them a steady third option behind Nola and Wheeler. He struggled mightily in the second half of the 2021 season and had a lesser decline in the second half in 2022, but that can likely be attributed to the injuries that led to him pitching just 67 1/3 innings total from 2018-2020. Walker was excellent in the first half in both of his two seasons with the Mets, making his first All-Star team in 2021 and pitching to a 2.79 ERA through July in 2022. If Walker can put together a consistent season from start to finish, it would be a huge boost to this team.

The biggest addition to the bullpen was trading for former Tigers’ closer Gregory Soto. Soto has been an All-Star each of the past two seasons for Detroit, pitching to a 3.34 ERA, but his 5.4 walks per nine could come back to haunt the left-hander if he doesn’t improve on his control in 2023. The Phillies also signed Craig Kimbrel, who wasn’t bad in 2022 with a 3.75 ERA, but his 27.7% strikeout rate was well below his 40% career mark. Along with Seranthony Domínguez, the Phillies are expecting to close by committee to start the season.

Top Prospects

The aforementioned Andrew Painter is the top prospect in the Phillies organization and is arguably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. The 6’7 right-hander was the 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft. He dominated in 2022, pitching to a 1.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 155 strikeouts and just 25 walks across 103 2/3 innings. He started the season in Single-A before advancing through High-A and finishing at Double-A, and he was excellent at every level. It is still unclear when he will return to the mound, but even though he will just be turning 20 next month, it won’t be long before Painter is on an MLB mound.

Like Painter, the Phillies’ No. 2 prospect Mick Abel is a tall, hard-throwing right-hander who was drafted in the first round. Abel will start the season in Double-A, as he still needs to work on his command, but with the uncertainty at the backend of the rotation, a strong start could help him earn a 2023 call-up. Griff McGarry, the Phillies’ No. 4 prospect, has the hardest fastball of the big three prospects, but walks have been a big problem for him since his days at the University of Virginia. The former fifth-round pick reached Triple-A last season and pitched in seven games as a reliever. With his stuff, he could potentially be called up to join the bullpen in 2023.

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