BOLD Predictions For White Sox Pitchers In 2023

At the start of every season, many people like to project how a player will perform statistically. Fans like to give their take on how a player will do in the season, but there are certain resources that use different models to project how a player will perform, based on the last season. Here, we look at how these resources project the White Sox pitching staff. 

Dylan Cease

In 2022, Cease had a breakout season. He pitched to a 14-8 record with a 2.20 ERA to go along with 227 strikeouts. He finally displayed what everyone was hoping for when he was traded for Jose Quintana. He looks to build off that strong season and finish top three in the Cy Young. 

Baseball Reference projects him at 12-8 with a 3.09 ERA to go along with 199 strikeouts. ESPN has him less favorably pitching to a 12-9 record with a 3.47 Era and 242 strikeouts. Surprisingly, the one thing they could both agree on is 12 wins. I believe that is the absolute floor for Cease this year. Too many times did Cease get credited with a loss after only allowing 1-2 runs. I  believe that the offense will be much better and allow him 15+ wins this year. 

While I do agree that the ERA will likely be worse this year, I still believe it will be in the 2.9-3.1 range, which is still very good. He can keep it in the low 2’s again, but he must be able to control the walks. He will pile up the strikeouts, as he is an elite strikeout pitcher, so anywhere in the mid-200s will be the sweet spot. I look for Cease to build off last season and cement himself as a true number-one starting pitcher. 

Bold Prediction: Without Justin Verlander in the American League, Dylan Cease wins his first Cy Young award. 

Lance Lynn

Lynn started off the season on the injured list, and it took him a bit of time to get to midseason form. Towards the end of the season, we saw the Lynn that earned himself a three-year extension with the team. After seeing his performances in the World Baseball Classic, I trust that he will regain his old form. 

Baseball-Reference projects Lynn to a 9-7 record with a 3.55 ERA and 138 strikeouts. On the other hand, ESPN, not as high on Lynn, projects a 10-8 record with a 3.8 ERA and 170 strikeouts. I would have to align more with the Baseball Reference projections, as they project more with his career averages. While Lynn is in his mid-30s, I still believe he has a couple of good to elite seasons left in the tank. Lynn is an absolute workhorse and that will not change this year. I can see him getting 12 wins with a 3.4 ERA in a solid bounce-back year. 

Bold Prediction: Lance Lynn has an elite first half, earning himself the start in the All-Star Game.

Lucas Giolito

After a stretch of three very good seasons, Giolito struggled through 2022. It was the second-worst season of his career, and to make things worse, his velocity was significantly down. Now, coming off an offseason where he slimmed down, he looks to regain his 2019 form. If Giolito can get his velocity up and perfect his third offering, he should be able to put together a solid stat line in a contract year. 

Baseball-Reference has Gio with a 10-8 record with a 4.13 ERA to go along with 171 strikeouts. ESPN is very similar, projecting him to go 10-9 with a 4.01 ERA and 200 strikeouts. Both of these resources like Giolito to bounce back, and they especially love him in the strikeout category. If the spring is any indication of the season, I can see his ERA floating around the high 3s for most of the season. Giolito is one of my favorite picks for comeback player of the year and with tens of millions of dollars on the line in free agency, he should have a good year. 

Bold Prediction: Gio has a good year and finishes top 5 in strikeouts in the MLB.

Mike Clevinger

After many good years in Cleveland, especially terrorizing the Sox, Clevinger finds himself on the 2023 team after an offseason that was riddled with controversy. The best way to make people forget about the baggage he brought here is to pitch like a Cy Young candidate. While that is unlikely, if he is healthy he could come close to some of the good years he put together in Cleveland. 

In terms of projections, ESPN has him with a 7-8 record, a 4.5 ERA, and 114 strikeouts. That is surprising, as his stats last year in an injury-riddled season were better than that. On the other hand, Baseball Reference projects him with a 7-7 record, a 4.11 ERA, and 99 strikeouts. I believe that will be much closer to his actual stat line for the season. 

Clevinger, like Giolito, is also in a free agency year. He does have an option on his contract, but after the events in the off-season, it is unclear if they will pick it up. If he pitches well and does not force the White Sox hand, another team will definitely sign him to a multi-year deal.  

I think that Clevinger will pitch well this year, all things considered, and outperform his 8-million-dollar price tag. If remaining healthy, he will blow past the strikeout projections that ESPN and Baseball Reference gave him. 

Bold Prediction: Clev pitches well for a full season, not missing any starts.

Michael Kopech

Once a promising prospect, Kopech faced plenty of adversity early in his career. Shortly after getting called up, he had to get Tommy John, and once finally healthy, he opted out of the Covid year. Since returning, Kopech has looked good as a reliever and as a starter. Now a full-time starter, he looks to build off his solid 2022 campaign. 

ESPN projects Kopech to pitch to a 4.02 ERA with an 8-8 record, including 148 strikeouts. But, Baseball Reference has him pitching to a 3.6 ERA with 112 strikeouts and a 6-7 record. I believe that his ERA will be closer to the Baseball Reference projection, while the strikeouts and the record align closer with the ESPN projection. 

Both of these projections could be on the lower side for Kopech if he takes the next step in his ascension toward a number one pitcher. If his velocity and health hold up for the whole season, he could receive some Cy Young votes. Unfortunately, after his first start in the spring, his velocity was down in the low 90s. Let’s hope that he was just working on some things, as that will not cut it in the regular season. 

Regardless, Kopech knows how to pitch and should cement himself as the White Sox number 3 starter if he can stay healthy. 

Bold Prediction: Kopech finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting after a strong season that sees him stay healthy and keep his velocity up.

Overall, both Baseball Reference and ESPN are very low on these pitchers for some reason. Luckily, they are just projections and in no way have any impact on the way that they pitch. Maybe it is the optimist in me, but I believe that every pitcher will be better than each of their projections, as I am very high on the Sox’s chances to win the division.