Sharks update: Karlsson nears 100, Quinn on Lorentz, and are San Jose’s lottery odds locked in?

SAN JOSE – The first goal for the San Jose Sharks on Saturday is to close out what’s been a dreary season at home with a win over Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers. The second is to help Erik Karlsson reach 100 points for the year.

Karlsson had a goal and a highlight-reel assist Thursday in the Sharks’ 6-2 loss to the Colorado Avalanche at SAP Center, giving him 98 points, a mark reached only 15 other times by a defenseman in the over 100-year history of the NHL.

Karlsson is now poised to become just the sixth different NHL defenseman to reach 100 points in a season as the Sharks (22-40-16) play the Oilers (47-23-9) in the final game of the year at SAP Center. The Sharks then finish things up next week with games in Winnipeg, Calgary, and Edmonton.

Karlsson has scored at least two points in a game 28 times this season.

“We’ve all talked about what a special year he’s had,” said Sharks coach David Quinn, who saw his team fall to 8-21-11 at home this season. “It would be pretty cool to have it done here at home.”

Karlsson scored an even-strength goal at the 15:43 mark of the first period, poking a loose puck that was near the crease through Avalanche goalie Alexandar Georgiev’s legs to give the Sharks a 1-0 advantage.

Lorentz scores off the pass from Karlsson pic.twitter.com/VgzUrERiCX

— Sharks on NBCS (@NBCSSharks) April 7, 2023

After the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche scored four straight times to take a three-goal lead, Karlsson then assisted on Steven Lorentz’s even-strength goal at the 8:41 mark.

On the play, after Lorentz won a faceoff in Colorado’s zone, Karlsson took control of the puck, avoided a check as he darted toward the goal line, then doubled back toward the blue line and skated toward the middle of the ice.

Karlsson then found Lorentz near the side of the Avalanche net with a tape-to-tape pass that the Sharks’ centerman fired into a near-empty net with Georgiev out of position.

“He obviously did his thing with a few dipsy-doodles and a lot of guys would have shot that puck I would have been waiting for the rebound,” Lorentz said of Karlsson. “But he put that thing right on my tape and I’m not going to miss from there.”

The goal was Lorentz’s ninth of the season, setting a new single-season career high after he had eight for the Carolina Hurricanes last season.

The assist marked Karlsson’s 53rd point at home this season, the second-highest total in Sharks history. Joe Thornton had 65 points in 41 home games in 2006-2007.

“Great play,” Quinn said. “I liked the movement in that shift and obviously Karl has the ability to find people like that, but Lorentz had a really strong game again.”

A defenseman has scored 100 points in a season 14 times in NHL history. Bobby Orr did it six times, with his 139 points in 1970-71 still a single-season NHL record for a defenseman. Paul Coffey did it five times in seven seasons between 1983-84 to 1989-90, with Al MacInnis, Brian Leetch, and Denis Potvin each doing it once in 1990-91, 1991-92, and 1978-79, respectively.

With his two points Thursday, Karlsson moved past Phil Housley’s 97-point season in 1992-93 for the former Winnipeg Jets. Karlsson’s season is now the 15th-most prolific in league history for a defenseman, matching Potvin’s 98-point total for the New York Islanders in 1975-76.

‘Guys are rooting for him to hit that because it’s very special, what he’s doing,” Lorentz said. “It would definitely be nice to do it at home. We’re obviously focused on the win, but if he can get those two points, that’s obviously going help us win the game.”

QUINN ON LORENTZ: Lorentz, who turns 26 next week, is finishing his first season in San Jose on a positive note in Quinn’s eyes.

Lorentz has four goals and three assists in his last 22 games since Feb. 18 as he’s averaged about 12 minutes of ice time per game. But Lorentz has also established himself as one of San Jose’s top penalty-killing forwards, and his 51.7 faceoff percentage is a big improvement from the first two-thirds of the season when it was around 45 percent.

“He’s gotten better and better throughout the season and I think he’s really understanding what he’s going to need to do to be an everyday player in this league,” Quinn said. “His last few weeks have been the best hockey he’s played all year long. I think he’s really dialed into what he needs to do.

“He looks confident and comfortable with accepting what he is and he’s been productive offensively.”

Lorentz played a more man-to-man defensive system with the Hurricanes the previous two seasons and has adjusted to more of a zone defense with the Sharks.

“It was a little bit of a learning curve for me, but it’s paying off,” Lorentz said. “I love the systems and when you buy into the systems and you play an honest game, it works. So, definitely, I’m happy. I’m playing with probably the most confidence played with in my career so far. I just hope to keep that going.”

LOTTERY ODDS: Barring some upsets in the last week of the regular season, it’s looking like the Sharks will finish 29th in the NHL’s overall standings.

The Sharks have 60 points, still four points up on Columbus, Anaheim, and Chicago. All four teams have four games remaining. To fall one more spot, the Sharks would have to remain at 60 points and hope either the Blackhawks or Blue Jackets collect four of a possible eight points, with Columbus earning at least one win in the process.

Chicago has two points in its last 10 games and faces two, potentially three playoff teams on the way in. Columbus is 3-6-1 in its last 10 and has an easier schedule the rest of the way, but will still be underdogs in every game.

Anaheim is also 1-9-0 in its last 10 and finishes the year with games against Arizona, Colorado, Vancouver, and Los Angeles. The Ducks would need five points to pass San Jose because the Sharks own the first tiebreaker (regulation wins).

On the other end, with their loss to Colorado, and Montreal’s win over Washington, the Sharks can finish no higher in the NHL’s overall standings than 28th. If the Sharks do not win their remaining four games, or Arizona collects two points in its final three games, then San Jose will finish no higher than 29th.

Per tankathon.com, if the Sharks finish 29th overall, they will have a 9.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery, a 9.8 percent chance of drafting second, and a 15.4 percent chance of drafting fourth. They would also have a 44.9 percent chance of drafting fifth and a 20.5 percent chance of drafting sixth.