Hotline mailbag: Media rights and expansion timelines, linear calculation, SDSU’s wait, survival odds
The Hotline mailbag is published every week. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line — or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Which will come first: Spring, or a Pac-12 media rights deal? Also, what’s the absolute latest that anyone in the past has signed a new media deal? Still seems like the Pac-12 can drag this out another six months or so and be just fine. — @Taquineur
Well, spring is here, and there’s no deal. Nor does it seem like the Pac-12 is on the brink of announcing a deal.
We can speculate on reasons for the holdup, with one possibility being the media rights piece and the other being expansion: The legal aspect of drawing up contracts and formally adding members takes time.
If the Pac-12 intends to land three planes at once — reach a media deal; sign a grant-of-rights agreement; and officially add new schools — before it announces anything, well, that could draw this saga out for several more weeks, at least.
We don’t know if that’s the case, but it seems reasonable to conclude the Pac-12 won’t announce a media deal until the grant-of-rights component has been signed.
Why? Because without the schools binding their revenue to the conference, the media deal is meaningless. And the deal itself probably depends on an expansion decision, because of both the media markets and the game inventory available.
So we have a difficult time envisioning a scenario in which any of those pieces are handled — and announced — separately. (To be clear: That is merely Hotline speculation. On this piece, too, the conference has been radio silent.)
But if nothing is announced until it’s all announced, and the announcement includes formal membership invitations, that could be part of the holdup.
Which brings us to the risk factor of a delay.
The Hotline has argued repeatedly that time and risk move in lockstep in the realignment game.
The longer it takes to secure a media deal, and lock in your membership, the greater the chance of disruption and, potentially, extinction.
That disruption could result from external forces (economic factors, for example). Or it could be internal, with a university president or two losing faith in the process and/or simply panicking.
In a formal sense, you’re correct: The Pac-12 could wait several more months before signing a media deal and grant-of-rights agreement that take hold in the summer of 2024.
For context, consider several previous timelines:
— The Pac-12 announced its current deals with ESPN and Fox in May 2011 for a contract cycle that began in July 2012 (timeframe: 14 months out).
— The Big Ten’s current deal reportedly was agreed to in principle in June 2016 for a contract cycle that began in July 2017 (timeline: 13 months out). However, the conference didn’t formally announce that contract until late July 2017.
“We have labored in bringing our agreements to maturity,” explained then-commissioner Jim Delany. “The (game) selection I wouldn’t say is tricky, but it is sensitive. Any change requires you to go back.”
— And in case anyone has forgotten, the Big Ten announced its new contract in August 2022 — after adding USC and UCLA — for a contract cycle that begins in July 2023 (timeframe: 11 months out).
Put another way: If the L.A. schools hadn’t announced their departures last summer, forcing the Pac-12 to accelerate its jump to the negotiating table, the conference would be in the heart of the window right now … just as it was back in 2011.
As long as the presidents don’t panic and external forces remain at bay, the Pac-12 could wait until June or July to finalize and announce the three pieces.
The risk would be substantial. But there’s nothing within the contractual guts of the media rights process that prevents an agreement from being reached 11 or 12 months prior to the start of a new cycle.
What is the deadline date for San Diego State to avoid higher exit fees from the Mountain West? — @kirkkern
I cannot speak to that issue with any certainty but would presume any increase in exit fees probably comes either 12 or 13 months before departure.
If SDSU were to join the Pac-12 on July 1, 2024, at the presumed start of the next media contract cycle, the university would need to formally notify the MW by June or July.
However, we’ll add one interesting twist: USC and UCLA aren’t joining the Big Ten until Aug. 2, 2024.
Exactly what that means, we cannot say. But it’s possible that the next Pac-12 media contract cycle won’t begin until Aug. 2, 2024, to align with the departures of the L.A. schools.
That might create more time in the expansion process before SDSU must notify the MW.
If San Diego State is invited and accepts Pac-12 membership (say, starting in July 2024) how much of this year’s NCAA Tournament earnings will the Aztecs be able to keep? — @hebridesdrifter
My assumption is the MW’s contract works in the same fashion as the Pac-12’s current deal.
UCLA and USC won’t take any NCAA units earned in the Pac-12 with them to the Big Ten, and SDSU’s revenue from the Final Four run wouldn’t follow it into the Pac-12.
The Aztecs would be entitled to their MW share only during their contract term in the conference.
How does the Pac-12 balance academics and an accretive brand value to potential additions to the conference? — @benwilkinson
Each president will weigh the factors differently as the group moves to a consensus. But institutional fit (academics, culture and geography), financial fit and competitive fit are the three broad considerations.
And remember, those pieces are being assessed on a long-haul basis.
The presidents are undoubtedly casting an eye to the end of the next contract cycle and attempting to position the Pac-12 for success when it returns to the negotiating table.
Are Pac-12 survival odds down to 2.5 points? — @UHFootballFeed
The Hotline’s odds for Pac-12 survival have been trimmed to 3.5 points and will remain there until we see substantive reason for a change.
It’s the most likely scenario but not a given and subject to risk factors.
We view Arizona and Colorado as the schools most likely to get anxious. Arizona president Robert Robbins’ public comments that he’s willing to wait and let the process play out was factored into the line being set at 3.5 points, and not lower.
If the numbers in exposure and revenue are horrible (like projections are saying) then is the Pac-12 doomed? — @mlondo856
Yes, it is. And if a 9.5 magnitude earthquake strikes San Francisco, half the city will be in the ocean.
Projections are one thing, and there certainly are gloomy projections about the future of the Pac-12, particularly from fans and media outlets connected to the Big 12.
We won’t discount the potential for a bad outcome to the Pac-12 negotiations — that’s one reason the survival line mentioned above is merely 3.5 points.
But generally, nothing has changed over these nine months: Commissioner George Kliavkoff was hired to negotiate the best media deal possible for the conference. While the circumstances shifted on June 30, the directive remains in place.
Either he does or he doesn’t.
And as we have written repeatedly, the most likely outcome is a media deal that satisfies the membership, and everyone moves ahead together.
Are there really not enough time slots left on traditional college linear networks to get the Pac-12 to Arizona president Robert Robbins’ goal of more than 50 percent of the games? And if so, would that require new linear partners or just new times (weeknights/super late?) — @jjfuller72
We can only estimate using known data points.
The Pac-12 currently has approximately 55 percent of its games on Fox and ESPN, with the other 45 on the Pac-12 Networks.
As a 10-team league moving forward, the Pac-12 would have approximately 65 home games within its media rights package: 45 conference matchups and 20 out-of-conference games (two per team).
To hit that 50 percent goal, the Pac-12 would need 33 games on linear networks.
Let’s say ESPN wants a regular Saturday night game and three or four afternoon or primetime matchups, plus four or five Friday games (to mirror the current total).
And we’ll toss a small package of games — four or five — to Fox for broadcast on FS1 at 7:30. (That remains an option, despite speculation to the contrary.)
That gets the conference to 26 or 27 on linear, or the equivalent of 42 percent of the total.
Can Kliavkoff reach 50 percent? Perhaps with some creative scheduling. Or maybe that isn’t necessary. Depending on other facets of the media deal — for instance: kickoff times set well in advance — the presidents could be satisfied with something close to 50 percent.
Keep two other things in mind with regard to the streaming discussion: 1) ESPN+ is streaming, just like Apple and Amazon; and 2) eventually, the ACC and SEC networks will be moved to ESPN+.
Most of the college sports content is headed to streaming.
Is Colorado State a viable option for realignment? — @mickbricks
Only if Colorado were to leave for the Big 12 but enough Pac-12 schools remained to keep the conference viable — a potential but unlikely outcome.
Otherwise, we don’t see how the Rams bring value.
Is Colorado the school most on the rise in the Pac-12? The Buffaloes have two teams in ESPN’s early pre-season top 25 for basketball and, of course, the great hire of Deion Sanders? — @em_buff
The Buffaloes certainly have momentum, to the extent that predictions actually matter.
For results in the three sports mentioned, Utah and USC are currently leading the way.
The Trojans sent both basketball teams to the NCAAs and had a breakthrough football season.
The Utes won the Pac-12 football title (again), shared the women’s basketball regular-season title and had a better-than-expected showing from the men.
If CU’s three teams meet the expectations laid out for the 2023-24 sports season, Boulder will be one of the hottest spots in the conference.
Odds that SMU gets into the Pac-12? Also, odds that a media deal is announced in the next week? — @lilcmac5
There is little chance of a media rights deal being announced next week, although the situation is fluid.
As for expansion, our latest probabilities are as follows:
Chance of expansion: 70 percentIf expansion, chance of SDSU being added: 99 percentIf expansion, chance of SMU being added: 85 percent
What are the odds the Pac-12 schedules Friday games? And with Friday games, wouldn’t 12 teams be a necessity? — @SoCal_Pony
The Hotline has assumed all along that Friday night games would be part of the next media package — it’s a competition-free programming window for media partners.
However, there are two options: A smattering of Friday games that mirrors the current schedule, or a full (weekly) slate of Friday games.
The conference could manage the former with only 10 schools and not place a burden on the teams.
But if any of the media partners — Amazon, perhaps — are interested in 12 or 13 Friday games, then expansion is essential in order to limit the commitment.
Is it inevitable that some FBS schools will soon classify their scholarship football and basketball players as employees? Are any Pac-12 schools open to this idea? — @TerryTerry79
The legal challenges to the NCAA sure suggest that endgame, either in a few years or late in the decade.
When (if) it happens, everything about major college sports will change.
I suspect most Pac-12 schools will agree to treating athletes as employees but wonder about Cal and Stanford.
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