Why has Stanford star Haley Jones’ WNBA Draft stock dropped?

Haley Jones may not have ended her college career at last weekend’s Final Four in Dallas, but her presence was felt nonetheless.

The former Final Four Most Outstanding Player was featured heavily in ESPN’s commercials promoting the WNBA Draft, where she’s expected to be a first-round pick this upcoming Monday.

But in what may be a surprise for a player who was considered the No. 1 overall recruit nationally when she left high school in 2019, there’s a chance that the two-time All-American will not be a lottery pick.

The main reason is Jones’ struggle to develop her jump shot.

In the three years Jones won Bay Area News Group girls player of the year at Archbishop Mitty-San Jose (2016-2019), she made 39.2% of her 227 attempts from deep. When she got to Stanford, though, Jones only took 20 3-pointers in her first 44 games and made just four during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 regular seasons.

Stanford’s magical run in the 2021 NCAA Tournament offered some hope for growth, as Jones made 5-of-8 shots from 3-point range in leading the Cardinal to the national championship. But her shooting has regressed since, going 11-for-45 (24.4%) on 3-pointers in her junior season and just 3-for-32 (9.4%) in her senior year.

That regression has made the 6-foot-1 guard’s outside shot the No. 1 concern about her game for WNBA executives and analysts.

“That’s what you hear from everybody … the red flag is the inability and the lack of willingness in terms of the 3-point line,” said ESPN analyst Rebecca Lobo in a pre-draft conference call this week. “I fully expect her to be on a roster this and getting minutes — she has so many great qualities that translate to the WNBA. But in terms of why she may have gone from a projected No. 2 pick to a little lower than that, it’s the range on her 3-point shot.”

The outside shot was the primary concern that several WNBA executives expressed in The Athletic’s anonymous survey about draft-eligible players last month. It’s likely why, in mock drafts released this week, both ESPN and The Athletic have Jones falling out of the lottery (top four) and being taken with the No. 6 pick by the Atlanta Dream.

Brooke Weisbrod, ESPN’s color commentator for Stanford’s two NCAA Tournament games this season, noted that teams were “daring her to shoot” from outside. Weisbrod doesn’t share the executives’ unease about Jones’ shot.

“I’m not that concerned that she can’t hit 3s on the regular right now,” Weisbrod said last month. “I think that’s something that comes over time, you’ve just got to get in the gym. And also, give yourself a little grace. You don’t have to have the complete game coming in.”

Jones clearly is aware of the perceived issues with her shot. During the Final Four weekend, she posted a video on Instagram of her working on her 3-point shot with a basketball trainer in Los Angeles.

Former Stanford wing & projected first-rounder, Haley Jones working with skills coach Drew Hanlen.
(haley.jonesss/IG)

Jones is a career 21.7% shooter across her four collegiate seasons and will need to expand her shot profile at the next level. pic.twitter.com/ysIiD2OyjI

— Hunter Cruse (@HunterCruse14) March 31, 2023

She believes in her ability to take and make outside jumpers during practice, but admits she might have a mental block once she gets in a game.

“I’m not as stressed out about it as many people make it out to be,” Jones said on the Locked On Women’s Basketball podcast last month. “It’s just going to come with time and me just taking more and not getting in like, ‘Oh my god, I missed,’ or, ‘Oh my gosh, I can’t shoot another one.’ For me, it’s like, if I take one in a game and I miss, I’m done. I’m not doing it again, just because I get in my head about it. I think it’s really just a confidence thing for me.”

Stanford head coach Tara VanDerveer said she “would describe Jones as more of a scorer than a pure shooter.” She referenced a different former Mitty star, Aaron Gordon, as a player who was able to add a 3-point shot at the professional level.

“Are there things that each player that’s drafted will need to work on? Yes,” VanDerveer said this week. “Haley can do whatever she puts her mind to. If she wants to be a great shooter, she will be.”

Beyond the shot, Jones has a versatile and diverse skill set that makes her a compelling WNBA prospect. She averaged 13.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game in her career and brings a strong presence on the defensive end, too.

“She has incredible passing skills, she’s extremely versatile. She’s not a player that you can put in a box,” VanDerveer said. “She can play multiple positions, she’s an extremely intelligent player, she really understands the game extremely well. She has a lot of the intangible things that you can’t teach.”

Weisbrod also sees a lot of those intangibles and versatility, but actually sees Jones’ passing ability as an elite-level skill.

“That is a gift and she’s got it,” Weisbrod said. “Watch some of the one-handers that she does — with her long nails, too. I’m just like, ‘How? How do you do it?’ — and it’s just there. Some players make you get anxious when you watch them play, but she does not. She has a calming effect when I watch her play.”

She’ll have to work to keep that calming presence as the game speeds up at the next level. But Jones is looking forward to going fast.

“What’s so enticing about the WNBA is the pace — I have so much fun playing with speed, pushing and going,” Jones said. “It’s going to be a bit of a learning curve, but it’s one that I’m excited to take on.”