Heavy rain threat ending tonight, rain chances next week with low pressure in the Gulf
Another round of heavy rainfall impacted the area this morning. This dumped another inch or so on already saturated grounds, especially across Jeff Davis, northern Vermilion, Acadia, Lafayette, and southern St. Landry where radar estimates show upwards of 5-8 inches fell overnight.
As of Noon today, we're getting a much-needed break in the rainfall, so the water should begin to recede pretty quickly in areas where high water is typically an issue. More waves of rainfall could be possible through the afternoon and evening, but hopefully rainfall rates stay below an inch per hour in this activity. At the very least, this break in the action will give the water time to drain before any additional activity occurs later today.
Rain chances will go down later tonight and tomorrow is look drier and drier on the models. Quiet conditions are expected for Easter Sunday as well with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
One notable change in the forecast is rain chances slowly increasing with each update for the Monday-Wednesday of next week timeframe. Models looked much drier for this time period a few days ago, but both the GFS and European models are now developing a cut-off low across Texas, moving it southeastward into the northwestern Gulf by Tuesday. Interestingly enough, these same models are developing a surface low, along an old frontal boundary, across the northwestern Gulf by Tuesday. This low meanders and loops before moving into the northern Gulf coast by Thursday.
This time of year surface lows in the tropics are complicated. They usually do not have the type of environment to become fully tropical (warm-cored), so they end up hybrid systems or normal cold-cored low-pressure systems. Analyzing data on this, it appears this low will likely be attached to the front and NOT fully tropical in nature. The only model that remotely comes close to making it a warm-cored tropical system is the GFS model, which has also performed poorly over the past few hurricane seasons. The European model keeps it a mostly cold-cored system, meaning this wouldn't be a tropical system, but could act in some of the same ways. Depending on its location relative to the coast, it could bring additional storms Tuesday and Wednesday along with breezy winds. The effects would be the same either way, and no one is wanting the A-name off the list this early in the year anyway!