Relationships between total reserve and financial indicators of Bangladesh: Application of generalized additive model

by Md. Sifat Ar Salan, Mahabuba Naznin, Bristy Pandit, Imran Hossain Sumon, Md. Moyazzem Hossain, Mohammad Alamgir Kabir, Ajit Kumar Majumder

The reserve of a country is a reflection of the strength of fulfilling its financial liabilities. However, during the past several years, a regular variation of the total reserve has been observed on a global scale. The reserve of Bangladesh is also influenced by several economic and financial indicators such as total debt, net foreign assets, net domestic credit, inflation GDP deflator, net exports (% of GDP), and imports of goods and services (% of GDP), as well as foreign direct investment, GNI growth, official exchange rate, personal remittances, and so on. Therefore, the authors aimed to identify the nature of the relationship and influence of economic indicators on the total reserve of Bangladesh using a suitable statistical model.

To meet the objective of this study, the secondary data set was extracted from the World Bank’s website which is openly accessible over the period 1976 to 2020. Moreover, the model used the appropriate splines to describe the non-linearity. The performance of the model was evaluated by the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and adjusted R-square.

The total reserve of Bangladesh gradually increased since 2001, and it reached its peak in 2020 which was 43172 billion US dollars. The data were first utilized to build a multiple linear regression model as a base model, but it was later found that the model has severe multicollinearity problems, with a maximum value of VIF for GNI of 499.63. Findings revealed that total debt, inflation, import, and export are showing a non-linear relationship with the total reserve in Bangladesh. Therefore, the authors applied the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) model to take advantage of the nonlinear relationship between the reserve and the selected covariates. The overall response, which is linearly tied to the net foreign asset in the GAM model, will change by 14.43 USD for every unit change in the net foreign asset. It is observed that the GAM model performs better than the multiple linear regression.

A non-linear relationship is observed between the total reserve and different economic indicators of Bangladesh. The authors believed that this study will be beneficial to the government, monetary authorities also to the people of the country to better understand the economy.