Will the 49ers move up from historic low entry point in the NFL Draft?
SANTA CLARA — On the last Friday of this month, the 49ers finally will be “on the clock” at the NFL Draft, after 98 picks have come and gone. That is the current order, at least.
Pick No. 99 marks the 49ers’ lowest entry point ever in the NFL Draft. Not exactly Friday Night Lights excitement, is it?
Armed with 10 other picks, they certainly can and likely will move up the queue.
How high should they go — and how much can they offer — for those one or two players envisioned as finishing touches for this winter’s Super Bowl push?
The first round is likely out of reach for a second straight draft, having dealt those selections to the Miami Dolphins in the 2021 haul for the No. 3 overall pick, quarterback Trey Lance.
Come Friday, April 28, the Niners will be in play, either by mortgaging more picks to climb back in the second round, or by staying put at Nos. 99, 101 and 102 to cap the third round.
General manager John Lynch is not one to sit idle. Well, at least not until last year’s draft, after which he noted: “Our first draft without any trades. That was interesting, but I think it worked out well for us.”
The 49ers sat tight and made nine selections, starting with defensive end Drake Jackson late in Round 2 (No. 61 overall) and literally ending the draft with quarterback Brock Purdy (No. 262 overall).
The only time the 49ers’ first pick came later than No. 61? That was in 1977, when they entered at No. 65, selecting wide receiver Elmo Boyd in the third round; they were idle the first two rounds after trading those picks in a 1976 package for Jim Plunkett.
That 1977 draft was the only previous time the 49ers did not make a first- and second-round selection. Their first pick came in the second round eight times, including Roger Craig (1983; No. 49) and Randy Cross (1976; No. 42)
Where did all of this year’s high-pick equity go?
– The first-round selection (No. 29) is the final payment on the 2021 package they sent to Miami to get Lance. (The New Orleans Saints now own that pick, after it went through the Dolphins and the Denver Broncos in trades involving linebacker Bradley Chubb and then coach Sean Payton.)Analysis: Lance remains an unknown after four starts in two years and an ankle fracture, but he’ll be QB1 in offseason workouts while Purdy recovers from elbow surgery.
– The 49ers’ second-round pick (No. 61) went to the Carolina Panthers in last October’s trade for Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers also yielded third- and fourth-round picks this year and a 2024 fifth-rounder.
Analysis: McCaffrey made his second Pro Bowl and is a two-way threat as a runner and a receiver. Best to avoid needing him at quarterback in an NFC Championship Game.
Late in the third round, the 49ers own a trio of compensatory selections by way of the NFL’s minority-hiring push of coaches and general managers. It’s the payoff for staff departures in 2020 (Jets coach Robert Saleh and Commanders general manager Martin Mayhew); in 2021 (Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel) and this offseason (Tennessee Titans GM Ran Carthon).
Their recent trade history suggests the 49ers will trade up. They did so 13 times between 2017 and 2021, too often for prospects who did not pan out, such as Reuben Foster, C.J. Beathard, Joe Williams, Kentavius Street, Dante Pettis, and, Trey Sermon.
Projected cost to enter the second round: a pair of third-round picks and a pair of fifth-rounders (or offer up 2024 equity and/or a player). The lack of a fourth-round pick impacts their sales pitch.
Why move up in the draft when they’ve found All-Pros with later picks, who, by the way, come on cheaper rookie contracts?
This current roster no longer has glaring vacancies in its starting lineup. Any move up the Day 2 draft board (Rounds 2 and 3) must command a player who’ll challenge the penciled-in replacements at right tackle (Colton McKivitz), defensive end (Jackson) or nickel back (Isaiah Oliver). This draft is more about depth, which, as last season proved, is vital.
The 49ers certainly could also trade down from their third-round stash, seeing how a team might want to grab a player at Friday’s conclusion rather than let others sleep and dream up a Round 4 gem Saturday.
So, three weeks to mull over who could be worth trading up from No. 99.
And three weeks to hear more rumors about how the 49ers’ ever-chaotic quarterback situation could pivot. Just expect them to forge ahead with Purdy, Lance and Sam Darnold. Purdy’s encouraging recovery timeline of six months and salary-cap considerations are driving factors why the 49ers aren’t expected to pursue trades for Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson or Kirk Cousins.
As Lynch recently said at the owners’ meetings: “We’re insulated with other guys we have a lot of belief in, so if Brock’s not ready, we’ll hold down the fort until he is.”
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The 49ers’ draft order:
First round: None
Second round: None
Third round: Nos. 99, 101, 102
Fourth round: None
Fifth round: Nos. 155, 164, 173
Sixth round: No. 216
Seventh round: Nos. 222, 247, 253, 255
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49ers’ top pick in drafts without first-round selection:
1976: OL Randy Cross (No. 42)
1977: WR Elmo Boyd (No. 65)
1979: RB James Owens (No. 29)
1982: OT Bubba Paris (No. 29)
1983: RB Roger Craig (No. 49)
1986: DE Larry Roberts (No. 39)
1988: DE Danny Stubbs (No. 33)
1996: DE Israel Ifeanyi (No. 46)
2022: DE Drake Jackson (No. 61)
*All were second-round picks except for Boyd (1977, third round).