Will Florida's 6-week abortion ban backfire on DeSantis?

Florida's Republican-dominated legislature last week passed one of the nation's strictest anti-abortion bills, banning most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, when most women don't yet know they're pregnant. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) quickly signed the legislation into law. DeSantis, who hasn't declared his candidacy but is considered former President Donald Trump's top rival for the GOP's 2024 presidential nomination, didn't celebrate with a public ceremony. He quietly signed the bill in his office.

Polls suggested the bill was unpopular among voters in both parties. The new law, which won't take effect unless the Supreme Court rules that a previous Florida law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional, includes exceptions allowing abortions up to 15 weeks of pregnancy in cases of rape and incest. It also preserves existing exemptions to allow the procedure until up to 15 weeks into a pregnancy to protect the woman's life or health. 

Abortion is expected to be a key issue in 2024, as it was in the 2022 midterms when Democrats campaigned in opposition to new restrictions imposed by state Republican lawmakers since the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that had protected nationwide abortion rights. A late-February poll by the University of North Florida found that 75 percent of Floridians, including 61 percent of Republicans, were somewhat or strongly opposed to the six-week ban. A GOP megadonor, Thomas Peterffy, said he and "a bunch of friends" were putting donations to DeSantis "on hold" due to his "stance on abortion and book banning," two issues DeSantis has used to lure Make-America-Great-Again conservatives away from Trump.

DeSantis made a big mistake

DeSantis is doing everything he can to polish his conservative bona fides before 2024, said Julianna Goldman in Bloomberg. But there's a big difference between making vague promises to "expand pro-life protections" and signing one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country. DeSantis can't beat a Democrat "without the support of suburban women," and he's not going to get it by touting this abortion law. The Florida governor will find it hard to win primaries "if his extreme position on abortion rights alienates so many voters that even hard-core Republicans see him as unelectable."

Democrats will certainly try to use abortion against DeSantis, said Karen Townsend in Hot Air. But they'll do the same against any Republican. "Suburban women and independent voters, in particular, are supportive of abortion restrictions at the 15- to 16-week mark in pregnancy," but support drops for a six-week ban. Still, "this was a necessary move for DeSantis." As a GOP governor, "he certainly had to be able to check the box of signing a fetal heartbeat bill into law, joining the other red states that have done the same." Trump's legal troubles are "sucking all the oxygen out of the room" and DeSantis has to do everything he can to get the attention of conservative voters.

The quiet signing ceremony was telling

Hiding behind closed doors when you sign a controversial bill "isn't exactly the best look for an ambitious politician whose schtick is to project toughness," said the Palm Beach Post in an editorial. It shows that DeSantis knows "having one of the nation's most restrictive abortion bans, easy access to guns, belittling President Joe Biden, and 'owning the libs'" will win support in the primaries, but they're poison "outside of the GOP political bubble." Women want "safe reproductive health care" and DeSantis knows it. He'll "brag" about his new ban in "well-scripted appearances" to right-wing audiences outside Florida, but in the "real world" we can see his attempt to avoid the spotlight "for what it is — hypocrisy." 

If DeSantis simply wanted to boost his political fortunes, he "could have tried to maneuver his Legislature to make the law less restrictive, perhaps by lowering the 15-week ban to 10," said The Wall Street Journal in an editorial. "He didn't," so presumably he "supports the ban out of personal belief. That's admirable in our age of political cynicism." DeSantis knows if he runs for president he'll "have to defend the law on the national stage," possibly by saying "Florida's law shouldn't dictate to Wisconsin or Pennsylvania." The ban might help him or hurt him. "Now that the abortion die is cast, Mr. DeSantis' presidential chances may hang on how well he defends the law just signed."