Has the GOP's culture war been for naught?

Republican lawmakers have become increasingly focused on waging conservative culture wars. Over the past year, the GOP has racked up several wins surrounding issues such as abortion care and reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, and parents' rights over school curriculums.  

After the revocation of Roe v. Wade, several red-state legislatures have been able to pass more restrictive abortion bans. Last month, Republicans successfully passed a law restricting drag performances on public property in Tennessee, and others are taking aim at gender-affirming care for transgender youth. Conservatives have also turned their sights to public school classrooms, universities, and public libraries. GOP-run states are passing widespread book bans, lambasting critical race theory, and placing restrictions on what sports trans students are allowed to play. 

Legislative wins aside, some question whether Republicans' cultural crusade will work for them in the long run, as many of their measures appear unpopular among the general public. For instance, since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, polls show "public opinion on abortion in the U.S. has moved sharply leftward," Intelligencer wrote. Are Republicans out of touch? 

What are the commentators saying?

Republican culture war rhetoric has flopped in school board elections, where "candidates who ran culture-war campaigns flamed out," Juan Perez Jr. writes for Politico. The outcomes have "major implications for 2024" and should also "serve as a renewed warning to Republican presidential hopefuls like Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis," Perez adds. "General election voters are less interested in crusades against critical race theory and transgender students than they are in funding schools and ensuring they are safe." 

Ryan Girdusky, the founder of the conservative political action committee 1776 Project, defended the performance of the school board candidates he endorsed, telling Politico that they "didn't get obliterated." Still, he warns conservative candidates against assuming "that a blanket message on critical race theory or transgender issues is going to claim every district," and advised that they "don't tell parents something is happening if it's not happening, because then it doesn't look like you're running a serious operation."

The controversies over abortion restrictions, book banning, and similar cultural measures "reveal how much politics has become an intergenerational battle, with older traditionalists against younger progressives," David Hopkins opines at Bloomberg. Social issues that "divide voters along generational lines have become more central to the nation's political debates," Hopkins adds. He finds it "hard to imagine" that the GOP can successfully sway more young voters "by treating young adults' political views with contempt or characterizing them as gullible victims of liberal brainwashing."

As Republican presidential hopefuls prepare for 2024, "the fact that one cannot win a GOP primary without titillating culture-war addicts is undermining the party's prospects for winning the next general election," Eric Levitz comments in Intelligencer. Republicans fare better when they focus on economic concerns, Levitz adds, and each day "that the GOP's 2024 hopefuls display more concern with 'Marxist' educators than with high prices brings Joe Biden one step closer to re-election."

What's next for the GOP?

After a lukewarm performance in the midterms, Republicans are shifting their focus to who will represent them in the 2024 presidential race. Top possible GOP contenders for the White House "are increasingly focused on battles around LGBTQ issues and education," ABC News writes, "a dynamic that political operatives say is likely only to intensify in the lead up to next year's election." 

One issue that has garnered a lot of attention among the prospective primary contenders is transgender rights. After the Supreme Court codified same-sex marriage, The New York Times says, "social conservatives were set adrift." Attempts to curtail transgender rights have "reinvigorated a network of conservative groups, increased fund-raising and set the agenda in school boards and state legislatures." the Times adds.  Next year's election "appears poised to provide a national test of the reach of this issue." After some blamed the midterm losses on the focus on social issues, "it may prove easier for Republicans … to talk about transgender issues than about abortion, an issue that has been a mainstay of the conservative movement." 

"For many religious and political conservatives, the same-sex marriage issue has been largely decided — and for the American public, absolutely," Kelsy Burke, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, told the Times. "That's not true when it comes to these transgender issues. Americans are much more divided, and this is an issue that can gain a lot more traction."