Trey Lance trade scenarios: Why would 49ers move on with Purdy health uncertain?
SANTA CLARA — Trading away Trey Lance seems like a preposterous idea for a team that just ran out of quarterbacks to dash last season’s Super Bowl bid.
A week away from the NFL Draft, other teams are at least inquiring about Lance, according to an NFL Network report Wednesday morning.
No trade is imminent and the 49ers are “fielding the calls, not making them, with teams aware that Brock Purdy is likely the future star,” NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport clarified in a Twitter thread.
The 49ers just opened their offseason program Monday, with Lance, Purdy and newcomer Sam Darnold in their quarterback stable. Purdy is only 5 1/2 weeks removed from elbow surgery that will keep him sidelined into the summer.
Lance figures to serve as QB1 when practices are allowed to start May 1, through the minicamp in mid-June, and likely into training camp, all while being challenged by Darnold, formerly of the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers.
If Lance leaves, it’s Darnold or bust, at least the next few months while Purdy recovers? That is illogical, unless a more heralded veteran comes in return (more on that below).
And, yet, we may as well ponder the “Trade Lance” possibility:
WHO ARE THE ‘MULTIPLE TEAMS’?
The NFL’s quarterback landscape is ever-changing, with next week’s draft serving up potential franchise saviors/busts after a whirlwind of moves (trades, retirements). Lance could be very appealing to teams disinterested in the draft’s offerings or at their position in it. Such as:
Tennessee Titans: New general manager Ran Carthon worked the past six years from the 49ers, he knows Lance well, and perhaps he knows it’s time to potentially upgrade from Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis.
Houston Texans: They hold the No. 2 overall draft pick. If the Carolina Panthers take Bryce Young at No. 1 and the Texans don’t want C.J. Stroud or another draft prospect, they should select a defensive maestro for first-year coach DeMeco Ryans, the 49ers’ former defensive coordinator who’s seen as much of Lance’s potential as anyone.
Indianapolis Colts: Owner Jim Irsay annually shuffle quarterbacks. They have the No. 4 draft pick, which is likely too low to grab Young and Stroud. Is Lance a better risk than selecting Anthony Richardson or Will Levis for first-year coach Shane Steichen.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers still has not been traded to them, and perhaps courting Lance rekindles any hint of leverage they may have in closing that deal with the Green Bay Packers. Mind you, when the 49ers picked Lance at No. 3 overall in 2021, the Jets had just passed on him for Zach Wilson at No. 2.
Minnesota Vikings: Lance returns to his native state, and the Vikings prepare to move on from Kirk Cousins. They’re financially strapped to Cousins this year ($49 million hit to the cap if he’s traded before June 1, $29 million after it), but he could be up for a long-anticipated reunion with Kyle Shanahan the following year, if Purdy’s comeback goes awry.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE?
Of course the 49ers won’t get an even return on their 2021 investment, what with Lance still a mystery (four career starts) but also with an injury history that most recently lists him coming off an ankle fracture.
They sent three first-round draft picks and a third-rounder to Miami two years ago to move up for Lance. What would be the 49ers’ asking price for him?
Even one first-rounder is likely out of reach. The Texans own picks Nos. 2 and 12 – beyond the Lance realm — but also No. 33 (second in the second round). The Titans are at No. 11, then at No. 41. The Colts go from No. 4 to No. 35.
Without a first-rounder in return, perhaps the 49ers can be swayed by a second-round offering and a matching figure in the 2024 draft? Probably not, but the hypotheticals are flying this time of year, at least for another week until the draft is done.
Check back in late October when Lance’s trade market is more realistic, when his health won’t be such a mystery, nor will Purdy’s.
PLAYER-FOR-PLAYER DEAL?
Lamar Jackson for Lance and a package of 2024 and ’25 picks? Nah. Jackson’s salary demands, worthy or not, are out of the 49ers’ price range the way they’ve structured their payroll with high-cost deals at other positions.
“Everyone knows Lamar’s skillset. Lamar’s a stud. I’m sure he’ll work it out there. Lamar’s a great player,” Shanahan said last month at the NFL annual meeting.
Redial the Packers from 2021 to make another eve-of-the-draft sales pitch? The Packers may be much more eager or willing to dish him, but, again, the 49ers’ financial structure makes him too cost prohibitive. They like their affordable, rookie deals with Lance and Purdy, as well as the one-year flier on Darnold ($4.5 million).
“We have three quarterbacks who are good with us right now,” Shanahan added on March 28, “and we’re pretty set with how we’ve built our roster salary cap-wise.”
The 49ers have $2.7 million in salary cap space, and still must sign their draft class; they have 11 picks, starting with three late in the third round next Friday.
WHY MOVE OFF LANCE?
It’s too early in Purdy’s recovery to know for sure he responds from his March 10 elbow repair, or when he’ll be fully cleared. But the expectation is that he could be fully cleared by September, perhaps early October.
Unloading Lance now means the 49ers are convinced that Purdy will make a successful comeback, and that he will recapture the magic of his late-season heroics (eight wins in replace of Jimmy Garoppolo before the NFC Championship Game injury).
It also would mean Darnold made a sensational first impression these first days of the offseason program, that he could steer the 49ers offense while Purdy recovers, after five troubling years with the talent-deprived Jets and Panthers,
Lance has not played enough games to fall totally out of favor with the 49ers, nor has he shown enough to warrant undying loyalty.
The 49ers have required three starting quarterbacks in 5-of-6 seasons under Shanahan, the lone exception being Garoppolo’s 2019 comeback that reached Super Bowl LIV.
It’s not a secret that Purdy’s play last season earned him the starting role going forward, which Shanahan and general manager John Lynch even said so last month.
“Trey’s a great person, but he’s also smart and knows what he saw. He knows the level Brock played at, so he understands that,” Shanahan said March 28. “I’ve talked to Trey the same way I’m talking to you guys right now, so he gets it. Trey’s just excited to be healthy, to come in and get those reps, and show us what he can do.”
The 49ers have had no qualms in cutting bait rather than try saving face for too long. Their first-round picks in 2017, Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster, didn’t pan out for a multitude of reasons. The big-money trade for Dee Ford backfired when, well, his back shelved him.
Poor personnel moves have been offset by scoring big in other areas, like finding All-Pros later in the draft (see: George Kittle, Fred Warner, Talanoa Hufanga) or scoring with stellar veterans such as Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, Charvarius Ward and more.
LANCE’S RESPONSE
Just being thought of on the trade market should remind Lance of the urgency to prove himself. He essentially redshirted his 2021 season behind Garoppolo by making early-season cameos and just two starts. Then he was a medical redshirt in 2022, having broken his right ankle in the first quarter of the Week 2 home opener against Seattle.
That did not detract from Lance remaining an upbeat, positive teammate during those seasons’ run to the NFC Championship Game. His teammates, most notably Purdy, are still strong supporters of him and his potential.
Lance surely has seen enough of NFL business over the past two years to know any transaction is possible. And fans are hyper-aware enough to know he doesn’t list the 49ers in his Instagram bio (but he does on Twitter, so there’s that).
If he knows other teams will be watching him as their future star, and if he knows a trade is not coming in the next week, then he needs to rise to the QB1 occassion put forth in the offseason program. He must leave no doubt he is a better option than Darnold if the 49ers open the season with Purdy still in rehabilitation mode. Then Lance can truly raise his market value, assuming his ankle responds from last year’s two surgeries and his dual-threat skills are matched by increased knowledge from two years in Shanahan’s system and reading NFL defenses.
If he can’t win back the job that was his a year ago, if the 49ers are indeed Purdy’s team for years to come, then, yes, Lance will need an exit strategy. Just not now.
For now, it’s just a hypothetical game in smokescreen season, to see how interested are the 49ers in trade calls. By the way, who picks up a phone anymore to call, when text messages fly and whispers are made between executives at the NFL’s scouting combine and annual owners’ meeting?