The 49ers might trade Trey Lance but leaning on Brock Purdy to start is super risky
Being a prisoner of the moment is one of the worst states of mind to hold as an NFL team. Living in the all-too-recent past is a recipe for disaster in a sport where your outlook can flip on a dime from year to year.
That appears to be the precise mix the San Francisco 49ers are considering with their top quarterbacks, Trey Lance and Brock Purdy.
On Wednesday, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that San Francisco is “fielding calls” for a trade of Lance, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The main reason being? The 49ers seem to wholeheartedly believe in Brock Purdy- the Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 NFL Draft- as their future quarterback. (Never mind that Purdy isn’t even sure if he’ll play this year after suffering an elbow injury.)
It’s a bold thought process, to be sure. It might even have some merit after Purdy “helped” take the stacked 49ers to last year’s NFC title game. But, barring an unlikely deal for a true star signal-caller, it doesn’t change anything about their forthcoming Super Bowl prospects.
It keeps them in the same static place.
Sources: The #49ers have received inquiries from several teams looking into a potential trade for former No. 3 pick QB Trey Lance. The conversations have been the result of SF fielding the calls, not making them, with teams aware that Brock Purdy is likely the future starter. pic.twitter.com/ddOZjZq5Xn
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 19, 2023
The 49ers trying to recoup any assets from their selection of Lance isn’t surprising. While it hasn’t been all his fault — a redshirt rookie year and an unfortunate injury twist of fate — has turned Lance into a relative disappointment in the Bay Area. Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch had hoped the naturally-gifted Lance would finally be the long-term answer that took their offense to the next level.
Instead, as bona fide Super Bowl contenders, the 49ers are mired in a bizarre holding period with a quarterback that probably still needs much development before he’s ready to compete with the big boys. I don’t know about you, but I’d also be seeking other options under center if my former top draft pick had 102 career pass attempts through two seasons.
It’s a no-brainer.
By that same token, the 49ers opening the door to life without Lance because they think Purdy can take over the top is foolish. I understand they feel emboldened by the recency bias of Purdy’s success in 2022, but there’s little to suggest much of any of that was sustainable.
Was the 49ers’ run to the NFC title game, where they won 12 straight games from Halloween weekend to late January, a product of Purdy being a dynamite difference maker? Or was it that San Francisco possesses one of the best rosters in the NFL, which would buoy almost any starting quarterback who plays a mistake-free, way-too-safe brand of football?
I have a hard time considering what quarterback wouldn’t look fine, at minimum, if their weapons were George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey, and they had an offensive line supported by future Hall of Fame anchor Trent Williams.
Moreover, Purdy’s Expected Points Added (EPA) of .23 is the highest for a rookie quarterback since 2016, is irrelevant through this prism. His yards per pass attempt of 8.1 is also pretty exemplary and also largely meaningless. A massive underlying caveat proves such statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.
Jimmy Garoppolo, the quarterback Shanahan and Lynch wanted to move on from in 2022 before Lance’s injury, had almost an identical EPA per RBSDM! Jimmy Garoppolo — who, again, the 49ers wanted to replace because he was holding them back — had nearly an identical yards-per-pass attempt.
It’s almost as if an incredible supporting cast, with the sport’s best offensive play-caller, who combine to turn the safety bumpers on in the bowling lanes for their quarterbacks, makes them look better than they really are.
Who would’ve thunk?
So, if you genuinely believe it’s the former scenario about Purdy being the reason the beyond-stacked 49ers qualified for the NFL’s final four: I have a Golden Gate Bridge to sell you.
The 49ers are probably right to try and move on from Lance. At a certain point, when you can win a Super Bowl, you can’t afford to wait for anyone to blossom, regardless of their high draft status. But there’s little to suggest that Purdy will be the quarterback who finally takes them over the top. There’s little to suggest the 49ers aren’t simply settling on Purdy being better than the low bar of play they’ve seen from their signal callers over the last half-decade.
If anything, Purdy is the same brand of uninspired, limited malaise that would only disappoint them again next winter.