Premier League Predictions: Chelsea, Liverpool and Brighton all to lose on Wednesday
Sky Sports’ tipster Jones Knows previews the midweek Premier League action and wants to oppose favourites Chelsea, Liverpool and Brighton on Wednesday.
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Nottingham Forest vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m kicking every ball with Roberto De Zerbi as Brighton try to stage a late fight for a Champions League spot – they are still to play Manchester United and Newcastle, so all is certainly not lost on my 9/2 investment. However, I can’t be having them at 1/2 with Sky Bet for this away day.
The fatigue factor from Wembley, both mentally and physically, hasn’t been factored into that price. Brighton’s squad lacks depth so rotation won’t really be an option for De Zerbi despite all his key men playing 120 minutes in the FA Cup semi-final. The hangover factor has been at play before. All four of the last ‘non-big-six’ teams have lost their subsequent match following an FA Cup semi-final defeat, including Brighton themselves in 2019 when losing 5-0 at home to Bournemouth.
Image: Roberto De Zerbi consoles Solly March after he missed the crucial penalty for Brighton on Sunday
Forest have only lost two of their last 12 games at home – to Newcastle and recently Manchester United, while De Zerbi’s boys have only kept one clean sheet under his watch on the road in the Premier League in 12 matches and in that encounter Bournemouth created an expected goals tally of 1.74. One goal for Forest might just be enough for a precious point – or even victory. At 5/1 with Sky Bet they are worth a swing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Chelsea vs Brentford, Wednesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is a classic case of if this was just Team A vs Team B based on recent form, underlying data and league positions then Brentford would not be 4/1 with Sky Bet for three points. You could argue they’d be closer to 2/1 – over an eight per cent difference. The name of Chelsea is holding the price of a home win which looks ludicrously short at 4/6 with Sky Bet. But this isn’t the Chelsea we know. This is a club in transition and doing a very bad job of it.
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It’s now just four wins in their last 22 Premier League games and they’ve scored just 22 goals in 25 league games since Thomas Tuchel was sacked – only three teams have scored fewer. Meanwhile, the man in the dugout has lost 15 of his last 18 games as a manager. Frank Lampard’s stock has never been lower.
Image: Frank Lampard has won one of his last 18 matches as a manager
Can he be trusted to have found a solution with his unbalanced squad full of central midfielders and goal-shy wide plays? I’ll need some convincing.
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It’s simple, but backing Brentford, who have won at Man City and drawn at Arsenal this season, on the double chance market – to win or draw at 6/5 with Sky Bet – looks the obvious but potentially profitable shout.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Liverpool, Wednesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
One result shouldn’t mask longer-term problems. That’s a lesson we’ve learnt from Liverpool this season. They made me look a fool against Leeds – not hard many will argue – when I was happy to take them on at odds-on and they rammed a 6-1 win down my throat.
However, I saw little to be swayed that Jurgen Klopp has this Liverpool side back to their best in the 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest. Yes, they got over the line, but to create just 0.37 worth of expected goals from open play and to concede twice to a Forest outfit that had scored just five away goals all season was alarming.
Well, it’s time to be a fool again. I’m against Liverpool here again at 17/20 with Sky Bet.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the clash between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest in the Premier League
They remain vulnerable having lost 12 of 23 away games in all competitions this season – and their record at teams lower than them in the current table is still worth raising. In nine games, they’ve won once and have failed to score in six of those matches, including defeats at Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Brentford.
West Ham’s current buoyant mood, potency on the counter-attack and physicality at set-pieces makes them a dangerous opponent. I’m all over following the Hammers to make this a difficult evening for Klopp’s men. My main play is a rather safety-first one by taking West Ham double chance – to win or draw – at 11/10, but both teams to score and West Ham to win 7/2 certainly is worth serious consideration.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Wednesday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The match result markets do look on point to me, with Arsenal big outsiders at 9/2 with Sky Bet to leave Manchester with three points, while City are 8/15. For those that do still believe an Arsenal title win remains on the cards, I’d advise taking the 9/2 for an away win in this one rather than the 3/1 on them in the Premier League title market. It’s a bigger price and all logic points towards this match being must-win for their title hopes. Whether City will give them any sort of sniff is debatable.
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I’m concentrating on full-backs, fouls and cards for my angles for the monster match. Whoever marks Bukayo Saka is always liable to be exposed in one-on-ones. In Saka’s last 13 starts, the opposition left-back has made 18 fouls and picked up five yellow cards. That healthy strike-rate hasn’t been noticed by the markets if – as the early team news suggests – Aymeric Laporte plays down that side in the absence of Nathan Ake. Laporte is 8/11 for one or more fouls, 7/2 for two or more fouls and 100/30 to be carded. All look live runners to my eye.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Everton vs Newcastle, Thursday 7.45pm
Everton have only managed to score two or more goals in one of their 16 home games this season.
It’s hard to see their flimsy attack being potent enough to achieve scoring twice against one of the tightest defences in Europe and a rampant attack that has found the net 13 times in their last four matches, so the starting point for this game is to oppose a home win which is aligned with the market, who have Newcastle at 8/11 with Sky Bet. No good there then.
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There might be a chance of digging out an edge against in the market in Newcastle’s corner count. Eddie Howe’s team tendency to work overloads down the sides, usually involving Kieran Trippier, means they have won the most corners of any team this season (209). I like the 11/8 with Sky Bet for them to win seven or more against Sean Dyche’s team who do offer up lots of territory so chances for opposition corners are high. Five of the last six teams to face Everton have managed to win seven or more, so a corner-winning machine like Newcastle should be seriously threatening that line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Southampton vs Bournemouth, Thursday 7.45pm
So-called ‘six-pointer’ matches where relegation is concerned are assumed to be cagey, low-scoring affairs. Not this season. Since the start of March, the 12 matches to involve two team with genuine relegation worries have seen an average of 3.4 goals scored per game with scorelines like 0-4, 1-5 and 2-4 popping up. The market is leaning towards a lack of goals but I’ll happily play the over 2.5 line at Evens with Sky Bet.
In a game where goals look on the menu, it seems wise to also back the best striker at the pitch to get at least one of them, especially when he’s priced up at 3/1 with Sky Bet to do so. Step forward Dominic Solanke.
Along with finding the net in the wins over Fulham and Tottenham, no player in the Premier League has had more shots in April than Solanke (17) to a backdrop of a healthy 2.41 worth of expected goals, highlighting that the chances falling his way are of high probability for a striker of his class. The markets don’t tend to respect him – but I certainly do. And he’s a huge slice of value to find the net again against a team that are odds-on to finish bottom.
Image: Dominic Solanke is a 3/1 shot to score vs Southampton
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Tottenham vs Manchester United, Thursday 8.15pm
The goal expectancy for this encounter looks too high, meaning the play has to be oppose goals at the odds available.
You can bet your last penny that Tottenham will play in a very safe defensive structure after their complete capitulation at Newcastle. When a team is on the end of a bit of a hiding, there is a theory that their next game will be all about being defensively secure. And laugh at Spurs all you want, when their focus is sharp, their defence, especially at home, is one of the best in the Premier League. In the last 16 months, Spurs have the fourth-best home defensive record when it comes to expected goals against and only recently as February kept consecutive home clean sheets against Chelsea, West Ham and Manchester City.
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And when you add Manchester United’s recent malaise in front of goal, the case for a low-scoring encounter is an easy one to make. Erik ten Hag’s men have only scored 11 goals in their last 10 matches across all competitions and only have 19 goals to their name away from home in the Premier League – eight teams have scored more.
With both teams happy to adopt similar counter-attacking styles, it may take a while for this to burst into life – if it does at all. The under 2.5 goal line at 6/5 is worth chancing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
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