Scouting Reports on Each of the Presumptive First-Round Quarterbacks
Beyond the interests of the draft sickos and armchair GMs, NFL draft classes are defined by the quarterbacks at the top of the first round. The draft is an exercise in hope above all else. Everyone is undefeated in April, and the new signal caller in your team’s uniform immediately changes your outlook for a few months because QBs don’t just move the needle, they are the needle in the NFL.
The top of 2023’s quarterback class blows ‘22’s out of the water from a prospect basis. The earliest QB taken last year was Kenny Pickett (20th) and another wasn’t selected until the third round. This year’s class may not have the no-doubt talent at the top that ‘21’s had with Trevor Lawrence, but it does match ‘21 and ‘18’s prospect depth at the top as far as draft classes in recent year. Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud, and Will Levis should all be gone within the first 15 picks. The flaws they have as prospects are unique to each, and are so wide ranging it offers for compelling comparison. The below is in no order but rather what approaches a scouting report for the regular fan that just wants to know a little about what makes each top passer in this year’s class tick.
Will Levis, Kentucky: Boring, and that can be O.K.
Levis does not have the aesthetic en vogue for quarterbacks at the highest level in 2023 and it has dinged him in the QB class zeitgeist. But who cares? As Steph Curry set the tone in basketball to make deep three-point shooting cool, so has Patrick Mahomes with his trick shot no-look passes and improvised throwing. The focus on the splash ignores the substance. What Curry does inside the arc with floaters, runners and layups is comparatively boring, but still impressive. Similarly, how Mahomes operates in the pocket won’t make highlight reels, but it does keep the Chiefs moving the chains.
A lot of what Levis does is not terribly exciting, but it can and will be effective at the next level. That’s fine. Will Levis is not a trick shot quarterback, nor is he particularly mobile or overwhelmingly accurate when he’s on the move—although he is a willing runner at times and will play through injury as he’s shown in multiple games. He does need to show more urgency inside the pocket with more deliberate movements and develop better instinctual pocket navigation in addition to a quicker internal clock. The combination between Levis at times holding onto the ball too long with Kentucky’s pass protection has gotten the Cats into trouble, especially because he can also fumble.
But he has a powerful arm on deep throws …
… and he can also pretty effortlessly throw intermediate balls with anticipation and zip. It’s not the greatest arm of all time, but it is more than enough to get the job done in the NFL. Where he has gotten in trouble is with decision making. It’s not just that the below throw is an interception, it’s that the process of the throw itself brings the interception into play because it’s not to the back pylon of the end zone.
Kelee Ringo????⬇️????
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 19, 2022
pic.twitter.com/oj177yiFXW
Levis came to Kentucky from Penn State and asked to perform in an NFL-like system that, in the simplest terms, pairs zone runs with play-action passes to generate deep shots. It’s a scheme in the league that elevates low-ceiling players like Brock Purdy, Jared Goff and Ryan Tannehill. You can obviously win playoff games with those players with the right mix of talent around them. Levis’s Kentucky experienced diminishing returns on the offensive line over the course of his time there in addition to a quarterbacks coach change from Liam Cohen (who has gone back and forth from UK to the LA Rams) to Rich Scangarello (who came from the 49ers). Head coach Mark Stoops built the Cats on a solid OL foundation, but it has eroded in the last couple years and it affected Levis.
There was a time quite recently that Levis’s ease of projectibility as far as scheme would have been the biggest asset to his draft case, but times have changed. The enduring question with Levis for those who write him off is: Are you simply bored by a QB that can do the boring things well enough, when that has been proven in some corners of the league to be good enough to win?
Anthony Richardson, Florida: Maybe he’s ‘The One’, or maybe he isn’t
Richardson is the “potential gets you fired” pick in the NFL draft, as the classic saying goes about how to evaluate the future when you have an obviously physically talented player. But looking past Richardson’s clear physical gifts if he beats your team for a decade can get you fired too. You will also hear on draft night that Richardson is a “project.” But dispelling the myth of what kind of project he is deserves explanation. What Richardson is not is a runner at quarterback or a quarterback looking to run more often than not. Richardson is trying to play like a big boy quarterback. He’s a savvy pocket negotiator who will read concepts out. When he breaks the pocket his eyes often do not immediately drop, rather they stay downfield to throw the ball.
— pickett’s pool (@PickettsPool) September 24, 2022
Richardson has a good process when it comes to being a passer. He is not a backyard football player just winging it, but when all hell breaks loose and you need him to be, he has that skill set in his locker like no other QB in this draft, which is why you can salivate over his attributes.
Teaching throw-first instincts and processing makes you one type of project; tweaking mechanics makes you another. He will have to improve his mechanics especially when moving to his left outside of the pocket. His throwing platform will also have to get more consistent. At times his feet can get too close together, causing a chain reaction in his body that forces an errant throw, but that can be worked on in the NFL. His footwork is part of what makes up the accuracy concern, as is Florida’s relatively aggressive passing game. No quarterback in this group was asked to do more from a volume perspective in his passing game from an intermediate and deep perspective. Those passes are inherently lower-percentage throws in nature, although he performs adequately when throwing them. What can be a bit concerning are the short passes that he will miss due to the combination of his mechanics and, at times, poor receiver play from his teammates. He’ll also have to develop better touch passes as he gains experience, but one wonders what happens if Richardson is paired with better wideouts.
He is not the runner Cam Newton is, as his strength on the run isn’t necessarily near the goal line or in short yardage between the tackles—Richardson is a twitchy long strider and a freak athlete who, once he gets going, is really hard to catch.
Richardson is without a doubt the highest ceiling player in this QB class, but look past the jaw-dropping physical tools to find a player who may not be as raw as you might think.
CJ Stroud, Ohio State: Is the discourse around his flaw actually progress?
Stroud is just plain accurate. Pick your area of the field or your depth of target and you are hard-pressed to find many times Stroud flat out misses. What you’re more likely to see is a ball put on the money, not just to the right person in the right window, but to the right location in the right context at the right time.
Now, Stroud undoubtedly benefits from the fact that he’s played basically his entire career with at least two NFL receivers on the field at any given time, and not just glue guys, outstanding prospects at the position, including Marvin Harrison Jr. who may end up being one of the best WR prospects in years. That affects his accuracy (positively) because unlike his fellow QBs in this class, Stroud’s receivers rarely dropped passes. Some of that’s on him, some of it’s helped by his teammates making plays, but it doesn’t significantly change the fact that he is the most accurate QB in this class.
Stroud is a type of prototypical pocket passer and much closer to a finished product than the rest of the class. But when it comes to where he needs some work, the discourse around him becomes quite interesting. Stroud, to a fault, will hold onto the ball and stick into the pocket. He didn’t get pressured often behind Ohio State’s offensive line, but when he did he wasn’t the best at evading it. He also doesn’t typically run much or bail out of pockets. In this regard, Stroud’s status in this draft hints at progress for Black quarterbacks. His abilities as a passer are taken for granted to an extent and he won’t be confused for a runner. But it doesn’t mean he can’t run. In fact when he had to, he’s been good enough for it to add to a dimension in his game:
His ability with his legs was most notable against Georgia, when he and the Buckeyes pulled out all the stops to get close to unseating the eventual national champions. What you wanted to see, he put on display. He not only showed the ability to run, but the willingness to tuck the ball and do so multiple times. He evaded pressure, negotiated the pocket, moved with ease and evaded the toughest kind of rush for a QB to deal with in Jalen Carter and UGA’s interior pressure.
CJ Stroud vs Jalen Carter pic.twitter.com/y9G2MWxDEM
— The GOAT House (@GoatHouseNFL) January 1, 2023
It boils down to this with Stroud: Is he the guy you saw on New Year’s Eve, and can he still be that if the talent around him isn’t comparably as good?
Bryce Young, Alabama: He’s got what you can’t teach, but why?
Nobody in this group of players can take a game by the scruff of the neck and win it like Young can. He has shown time and time again that he has that skill set in spades. Throughout the process, he’s also become the presumptive No. 1 pick.
Young’s superpower is his mind. His ability to process is renowned, as is the amount Alabama’s coaching staff put on his plate from his early days as a starter. He can handle what he’ll be asked to do at the NFL level, because he’s already done much of it in Tuscaloosa. There’s something to be said for trying to overcome a deficiency with your mind, which brings us where you know we had to go with Young: his size. There is no reality where Bryce Young will ever gain four inches of height and 30 pounds. It obviously does not disqualify him from being the first pick in this draft, but it does mean he isn’t a slam dunk prospect, despite the fact that it appears the Panthers are set to make him the first pick.
This isn’t about him getting passes batted at the line of scrimmage (a misnomer about short quarterbacks), but it is a reminder that he’s had to play around his physical deficiencies. For instance, we see it in his straight drop-back, a nod to an older style of quarterbacking that actually allows him to see more of the field for longer than the common side-on drop-back. He drops deep in the pocket, which helps him see the field as well, but can also bring about pressure and sacks as it changes the angles of the opponent's pass rush. It means the scheme you’ll drop him in will have to work around his height and his size as well. Comps to Drew Brees ignore the Saints legend’s preternatural accuracy, and comps to Kyler Murray ignore the Cardinals starter’s speed advantage. Young is an outlier in many ways, and he’s his own version of a small quarterback. If he was taller, he’d be a no-brainer, but the reality of the situation is what it is. Young’s flaw is the most intriguing out of any QB in this class because it can’t actually be fixed., and as much of a problem as the height might be, his overall size also can be too. Young must and likely will learn how to slide and get down. It’s one thing he can significantly learn from Murray, who is as adept as a slider as there is at the position due to his past as a baseball player.
But remember, he didn’t wake up yesterday and magically shrink to 190 pounds. For the last few years he’s learned how to play at this size to thrive in the SEC, but it is something he’ll have to prove he can do at this level just like he had to at the college level. If you can look past all of that (and it’s apparent the Panthers seem likely to do so with their considerable QB support structure), then what you’re getting is a unique playmaker who is great in structure and even better out of it. He will have to make sure he’s not going off script too much, but if you doubt Young now then get in line, because there are plenty of people who have been wrong about him before.