Breaking Down Patriots’ First-Round Options Ahead Of NFL Draft
The New England Patriots own the 14th pick in this week’s 2023 NFL Draft. Landing an impact player with that pick isn’t just important — it’s imperative.
“You can’t miss on those guys,” director of player personnel Matt Groh stressed last week in his pre-draft news conference. “That’s an investment. That’s a four- or five-year investment. … You’d better do your homework and make sure you get those guys right, from a character perspective and from a player perspective.”
That homework now is complete and ready to be turned in. The Patriots spent the last two-plus months closely vetting hundreds of college prospects, including dozens of potential first-round picks, as they constructed and finalized their draft board. Carrying a streak of four consecutive seasons without a single playoff victory, they know they need to ace this draft as they work to climb back into contention and navigate a now-loaded AFC East.
How will they kick things off Thursday night in Kansas City? Here’s a rundown of New England’s possible first-round approaches:
Draft an offensive tackle
The Patriots might be able to get by this season with the tackles they currently have (Trent Brown and Riley Reiff as the projected starters; Calvin Anderson and Conor McDermott in reserve roles). But with Brown and Reiff both entering contract years and prone to injuries, there’s little long-term stability in this group. At least one of the top four tackle prospects (Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright) should be on the board at No. 14, with Jones and Wright the most likely to be available at that spot. The former has tremendous upside and athleticism but would be the least experienced first-round pick of the Belichick era. The latter started 42 games in college and looks like one of the best overall Patriots fits in this draft, even if he might only be a right tackle at the NFL level.
Draft a cornerback
And ideally a taller, longer one after New England relied mostly on sub-6-foot players at the position last season. Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez and Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon are the top options, but both could be gone by No. 14. If that’s the case, would the Patriots consider Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. or Maryland’s Deonte Banks, who both play with their desired level of physicality in coverage? They’ve only drafted one first-round corner under Belichick, and that player (Devin McCourty, 2010) later moved to safety.
Draft a wide receiver
Wideout is another position the Patriots have targeted in Round 1 just once in Belichick’s tenure (N’Keal Harry, 2019), and Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba likely is the only receiver deserving of the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft. Smith-Njigba would be a great fit for New England’s offense — he’s basically a taller Julian Edelman — but history suggests it’ll wait to address that need until later. The Patriots’ receiving corps currently consists of JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne and 2022 second-rounder Tyquan Thornton.
Draft an edge rusher
While not a glaring immediate need, the Patriots have one top pass rusher who turns 31 this summer (Matthew Judon) and another who’s set to hit free agency after this season (Josh Uche). They did a ton of work on this year’s top edge prospects, bringing projected first-rounders Tyree Wilson, Nolan Smith, Lukas Van Ness and Myles Murphy in for pre-draft visits. Wilson likely will be unattainable — he could go as high as No. 2 overall — but the other three could be in play for New England. Don’t be shocked if this is how Belichick spends his first-round pick.
Draft a running back
Or, more specifically, draft Texas’ Bijan Robinson, who, based purely on talent, is one of the very best players in this draft. The problem: Using premier picks or handing out hefty contracts to running backs generally is bad business, and the Patriots already have one backfield stud in Rhamondre Stevenson. We’d be against taking Robinson at No. 14. But the Patriots reportedly are “absolutely intrigued” by him, so the possibility is there if he falls to them.
Draft a tight end
Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki have the potential to be a highly productive tight end duo in Bill O’Brien’s new Patriots offense. But both are on expiring contracts, and New England’s only other tight ends are practice squadders. Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer (the best all-around tight end in this draft) and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid (a standout pass-catcher who’s been comped to Travis Kelce) are possible targets at No. 14, though we’d recommend waiting a round or two and grabbing a different member of this historically deep tight end class.
Draft a quarterback
This would be a franchise-shaking decision and a resounding vote of no confidence in Mac Jones. It also would be a major surprise, considering the Patriots just drafted Jones 15th overall two years ago and team owner Robert Kraft has publicly thrown his support behind the embattled QB. But New England hosted Will Levis for a late pre-draft visit and reportedly has “real interest” in the Kentucky passer. How would the Patriots proceed if Levis, who could be a top-five pick, slides to No. 14? The same goes for Florida’s Anthony Richardson, whom they interviewed at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Trade down
If we’re ranking all of the potential first-round outcomes, this probably is the most likely. Belichick has a long history of trading back on Day 1 and acquiring additional assets. He did it in 2020 before taking Kyle Dugger early in Round 2, and last year before grabbing Cole Strange at No. 29. This year’s Round 1 Patriots pick is the franchise’s highest since 2008, but with this class featuring fewer elite prospects than most, New England could see value in moving down and adding an extra pick or two in Rounds 2-4. Possible targets in the high teens or 20s include Wright, Banks, Murphy and Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers.
Trade up
It hasn’t happened in over a decade, but the Patriots have made aggressive first-round moves in the past, most recently trading up twice in 2012 to land Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower. With 11 total picks this year and six in the top 135, New England has the ammo to move up into the low teens for a player like Gonzalez, Witherspoon, Skoronski, Johnson, Wilson or even Levis if any of them falls out of the top 10.
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