Are Bettors Overreacting To Jets’ Potential After Aaron Rodgers Trade?
Aaron Rodgers is officially a New York Jet. This should come as no surprise as the trade has been vocalized by both parties for months now.
Yet, since the terms of the deal were reported, the Jets have been the most bet team to win the division, conference and Super Bowl at BetMGM.
DraftKings Sportsbook has given the Jets the sixth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, at 14-1. The only teams ahead of them? The defending champion and favorite Chiefs, the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. One thing in common with all those teams? They have established MVP-caliber quarterbacks (outside of the 49ers) all 27 years old or younger.
Aaron Rodgers is 39 years old and has been very open about the possibility of retirement. His back-to-back MVP run just a few years ago was impressive, but it’s time for the new age of quarterbacks to take over. Plus, the AFC is loaded and will be a much tougher path for Rodgers than the NFC and certainly the NFC North was.
Despite playing in an easy conference, Rodgers ranked 26th in ESPN QBR, in the neighborhood of Matt Ryan, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield. His rating of 39.3 was far off from the numbers of the quarterbacks he joins in the Super Bowl conversation this season. Mahomes and Allen ranked No. 1 and No. 2 at 77.6 and 71.4, respectively. Rodgers ranked among the bottom half of quarterbacks in EPA and finished with a completion percentage of just 64.6% — lower than Mac Jones, Jared Goff and Ryan Tannehill. He also finished top 10 in interceptions, the most since his first year as a full-time starter in 2008.
Despite the influx of money on Rodgers’ new squad in the betting market, sportsbooks aren’t sold on Rodgers being the savior just yet.
“We’ll have to see how they look on the field before moving them any shorter,” Bet MGM senior sportsbook trader Halvor Egeland said.
In my opinion, I think the odds have a better chance of getting longer when the season starts. Don’t get me wrong, Rodgers will be remembered as one of the best quarterbacks in football. He is no doubt an upgrade from past Jet signal-callers and will likely provide a spark to the offense. Sure, Rodgers is worth a few more wins. However, the price on the Jets seems like a bit of an overreaction to me. For example, the line for their regular-season wins is not only set at 9.5, which is a big jump from last year’s 5.5, and it’s heavily juiced to the over. I see value on the under at plus money. The four-time MVP struggled to find chemistry with his new weapons in Green Bay following the departure of Davante Adams and I don’t see him picking up chemistry any quicker with the developing talent in New York.
Yes, the Jets finished with a top-five defense led by defensive rookie of the year Sauce Gardner. Yes, their offense showed a lot of promise and I’m excited to see what offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson is able to do in his second year. Still, it’s too tough of an AFC that is only getting better, for me to think the Jets are a Super Bowl-caliber team. If anything, wait until the season starts and growing pains reveal themselves. Buy low then, instead of chasing the number that is getting shorter with all the hype.
If you’re still inclined to put money on the Jets right now, consider Rodgers to take home the award he is most familiar with. DraftKings has him listed at 18-1 to win MVP. If the Jets are truly a Super Bowl contender by the end of the season — while it won’t be all thanks to Rodgers — he will surely be the one most recognized for it. A $10 bet would win you $180 dollars – a little to win a lot and a good way to satisfy your preseason-Jets-craving.
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