NFL Mock Draft: Using Betting Odds To Project Top 15 Picks
The NFL draft betting market is fluid, to say the very least, and that’s especially true as the countdown goes from days to hours.
It also seems like every year is even more unpredictable than the last, or at least that’s the industry line. Of course, that doesn’t stop the entire football world from trying to predict what will happen.
We’re no different. While we’re certainly not grinding through tape or checking in with sources at team facilities, there are breadcrumbs to follow — like the betting odds. It’s not an exact science, obviously, as the odds aren’t purely a prediction of what will happen, rather it’s a reflection of how bettors are wagering their money. But it’s a fun exercise nonetheless.
So, after digging through some readily available draft odds and pairing them with the latest news from the actual smart people, here’s our “mock draft” for the first 15 picks.
All betting lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
1. Carolina Panthers — QB Bryce Young (-1000)
New head coach Frank Reich says the organization has reached a consensus with the top pick, and just about everyone — except for maybe some Reddit bros — thinks the Panthers will call Young’s name.
2. Houston Texans — DE Tyree Wilson (+125)
Wilson has been one of the draft’s biggest risers. The freaky Texas Tech edge rusher could make a lot of money for bettors who jumped on him early in the process if the Texans stay in the state with the first pick of the DeMeco Ryans era.
3. Arizona Cardinals — DE Will Anderson (+200)
OK, so here’s where it starts to feel like this is all a waste of time. The Cardinals, for starters, could very easily trade out of this pick. FanDuel has Anderson as the favorite here, but DraftKings makes Paris Johnson Jr. the favorite. ESPN.com on Wednesday noted Arizona’s interest in the offensive lineman, so perhaps the +400 at FanDuel is a worthwhile investment. And if a team really likes C.J. Stroud despite the falling stock, maybe they trade up to make sure they get him here.
4. Indianapolis Colts — QB Will Levis (+130)
The Colts are (still) desperate to find their next franchise quarterback. Levis is nowhere near the slam dunk Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were, but that’s probably not going to stop Jim Irsay from keeping someone like Levis in blue and white.
5. Seattle Seahawks — DL Jalen Carter (-115)
There might already be Seahawks jerseys with Carter’s name being printed. He’s an odds-on favorite at FanDuel and even money at DraftKings.
6. Detroit Lions — CB Devon Witherspoon (+100)
It’s a really deep cornerback draft, but Witherspoon is the consensus standout. Detroit could use a physical corner to go to war with the likes of Justin Jefferson, D.J. Moore and Christian Watson for the next handful of years.
7. Las Vegas Raiders — CB Christian Gonzalez (+320)
Going back to that same ESPN story, Matt Miller said to “keep an eye on” the Raiders and cornerbacks. The betting odds say it’s either Gonzalez or Johnson here — both are +320 — so using that information from Miller, we’ll mock the Oregon corner to Vegas here.
8. Atlanta Falcons — RB Bijan Robinson (+250)
ESPN’s Todd McShay thinks Robinson is the draft’s No. 2 prospect, as does Scouts Inc. NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah has Robinson No. 3, and Pro Football Focus ranks him at No. 8. Robinson is a stud NFL prospect, but will teams be willing to draft a running back this high? According to some reports, the Falcons might be willing to do so, and he would be an interesting fit in Arthur Smith’s developing offense. Atlanta had an underrated defense in 2022, so this could be a really strong value play for a team unafraid to buck the trend. One other player to consider in this No. 8 slot might be Georgia pass rusher Nolan Smith (+550). The Packers have the ammo (and motivation with rival Chicago at No. 9), reportedly like him — they love UGA defensive stars — and maybe Atlanta will be willing to trade back if it thinks Robinson might fall.
9. Chicago Bears — OT Darnell Wright (+300)
You can’t go wrong with beefing up the offensive line here, and we’ve got the draft board falling right into place for Ryan Poles without an O-lineman picked to this point. Wright is the slight favorite at this position at both FanDuel and DraftKings, so he gets penciled in here.
10. Philadelphia Eagles — OT Peter Skoronski (+240)
Mel Kiper Jr. recently mocked Skoronski to the Eagles, and the Philly roster is so good that it can afford to take a relative luxury like an offensive lineman here. It’s never a bad idea to draft a big guy after you just gave your quarterback a record-breaking contract a few weeks earlier.
11. Tennessee Titans — QB C.J. Stroud (QB first position selected: +115)
Offensive lineman technically is the favorite here, but we’re editorializing a little bit now outside the top 10. The Titans had been connected to Florida’s Anthony Richardson, but passing up on Stroud, who was projected at one point to be a potential No. 1 pick, is too tempting.
“There’s no way (Stroud) gets past Tennessee at that spot,” an executive told ESPN’s Jordan Reid this week.
12. Houston Texans — WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (U12.5 +250)
This is the toughest pick so far, based on odds, because the market for number-related picks only goes to 10, and the first position drafted prop applies to the No. 2 overall pick for the Texans. After going defense with their first selection, offense makes sense here, and it doesn’t sound like Richardson is on their radar. So, game-changing wideout it is.
13. Green Bay Packers — EDGE Nolan Smith (DL first position selected: +200)
After missing out on another first-round wideout, the Packers can take solace in the fact that they didn’t have to trade up to get Smith. They could also go offensive line or even force the issue with another receiver (Quentin Johnson), but we’re trusting the process here.
14. New England Patriots — OL Broderick Jones (OL first position selected: +200)
Bill Belichick is impossible to predict, but the odds say offensive line, and Johnson is the best still available, so here we are. We do know Belichick likes big boys from Georgia.
15. New York Jets — OT Paris Johnson Jr. (OL first position selected: -300)
Every sign points to the Jets drafting a hoss to protect Aaron Rodgers, and it all comes up Gang Green as Johnson falls to them at 15.
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