SI:AM | The English Premier League Could Come Down to This

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Before a jam-packed NBA slate tonight, there’s a soccer game with enormous implications.

In today’s SI:AM:

???? The 40th anniversary of a draft that changed football

???? Yet another mock draft

???? Trae Young keeps the Hawks alive

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Can Arsenal hang on?

With a month left in the Premier League season, there are only two teams with a realistic chance of winning the championship—and they’ll square off in a match today that could very well decide the title.

Arsenal is currently in first place with 75 points, seeking its first league championship since 2004. Manchester City, which has played two fewer games than Arsenal, is in second with 70 points and seeking its third straight championship (and fifth in six years). A City win would put it two points behind Arsenal with two extra games to make up the deficit, while an Arsenal win would put City in the much more difficult position of having to make up an eight-point deficit.

City won the first league matchup between these teams in London in February, 3–1. The stakes were equally high for that one but despite City tying Arsenal in the standings with that win, the Gunners have moved back into first by virtue of playing two extra games.

Neither team has lost in league play since the Feb. 15 meeting, but Arsenal has left the door open for City by drawing its last three games. The most recent one was a 3–3 draw against last-place Southampton that saw the Gunners need two very late goals (in the 88th and 90th minutes) to escape with the point.

City, on the other hand, is riding a hot streak, having won six Premier League games in a row by a combined score of 18–4. It also cruised into the FA Cup final (to be played June 3 against Manchester United) by outscoring opponents 12–0 in its last three cup matches and beat Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarterfinals. But that also means that Arsenal, which was eliminated from the FA Cup (by City) and Europa League earlier, is more well rested than City. Arsenal has played four matches this month, while City has played six.

The biggest difference between the two teams shows up defensively. City hasn’t allowed more than one goal in any of its past 19 games (in all competitions), while Arsenal is coming off a disastrous display in which it allowed three goals to the worst team in the league. Arsenal’s defensive woes can be blamed on the absence of center back William Saliba, who hurt his back against Sporting Lisbon in Europa League play March 16. The Gunners went on to surrender the tying goal in the second half and lose on penalties, then give up a total of seven goals in their three recent draws. City’s league-best offense could feast on the depleted Arsenal defense, especially now that it’s back at full strength. Manager Pep Guardiola rested several players during Saturday’s FA Cup match against Sheffield United, including John Stones, Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri, while Phil Foden was able to come off the bench and play 23 minutes in his first action since undergoing appendix surgery a month ago.

With that in mind—and considering the fact that the game is at the Etihad in Manchester—City has to be the favorite this afternoon. But no matter the outcome, it’ll be a thrilling race to the end of the season.

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Today’s Daily Cover story from Matt Verderame looked back at the 1983 NFL draft, which forever changed pro football.
• Less than 36 hours from now, the Panthers will be on the clock to open the NFL draft. Conor Orr gives his first-round predictions in our latest mock draft.
• Albert Breer gets the low down on this year’s QB draft class from NFL coaches.
• Breer also explains what the Aaron Rodgers trade means for Zach Wilson.
• Tom Verducci is ready to proclaim that the Rays, after their hot start to the season, are going to make the playoffs.
• The short-handed Clippers fought hard in their five-game loss to the Suns. But Chris Mannix asks: Where does this version of the roster go from here?
• The Nuggets closed out the T-Wolves in a tense Game 5 last night, while Trae Young’s game-winner has made things a little more interesting for the Celtics.
• Justin Barrasso explains why WWE introduced a new men’s world championship.
• These are the top men’s basketball transfers still in the portal, according to Kevin Sweeney.
• Pat Forde again questions the Alabama men’s basketball program after its latest controversy: “Tuscaloosa has become the Bad Judgment Capitol of College Basketball.”
• Fans continue to pack arenas as the NBA playoffs heat up, with the average Game 5 seat posted at $422, per SI Tickets.

The top five...

… things I saw last night:

5. Connor McDavid’s excellent job to hang on to the puck before his assist to Leon Draisaitl.

4. The very painful goal Zach Hyman scored by deflecting it in off his face.

3. Blake Sabol’s walk-off homer for the Giants.

2. Yuli Gurriel’s inside-the-park home run, the first of the season.

1. Trae Young’s deep three to beat the Celtics and force a Game 6.

SIQ

On this day in 1990, Nolan Ryan threw his 12th career one-hitter, tying the MLB record set earlier by which man?

• Walter Johnson
• Bob Feller
• Tom Seaver
• Mordecai Brown

Yesterday’s SIQ: What did Mariners manager Maury Wills instruct the grounds crew to do on April 25, 1981, leading to a two-game suspension?

• Move first base farther up the line
• Widen the batter’s boxes
• Stop cutting the infield grass
• Make the warning track narrower

Answer: Widen the batter’s boxes. During a game against the A’s, Oakland manager Billy Martin thought the batter’s boxes looked a little strange, so he asked crew chief Bill Kunkel to investigate. The umpires broke out a measuring tape and found that they were drawn seven feet wide instead of the usual six. They were redrawn, and the game went on, with Oakland winning 7–4 to improve to 16–1.

Seattle’s head groundskeeper was questioned to try to ascertain how such a mixup could occur. The groundskeeper said he was acting on orders from Wills. Three days later, the American League suspended Wills for two games.

Wills explained that he asked for the boxes to be enlarged because the A’s had complained about Seattle outfielder Tom Paciorek stepping out of the box, but claimed they were made a few inches wider, not a whole foot.

Wills, who had become the third Black manager in MLB history when the Mariners hired him the previous August, didn’t hold on to his job much longer. He was fired in early May after leading Seattle to a 6–18 start.