Kevin McCarthy's bill to raise the debt ceiling squeezes by in the House after a series of contentious last-minute changes to secure enough GOP votes

• Kevin McCarthy's bill passed the House on Wednesday with 217 Republicans signing on.
• It comes after he agreed to some last-minute changes to the bill to appease GOP holdouts.
• Still, it's highly unlikely to be signed into law as it faces a Democratic-controlled Senate and White House.

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy just got his debt ceiling legislation passed by the seat of his pants.

On Wednesday, McCarthy brought the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 to the House floor, even as some members of his own party remained skeptical. The bill ultimately passed by 217-215 votes, with four GOP lawmakers and all Democrats voting against it. Under the legislation — which still has a long road to becoming law — the debt ceiling would rise by just $1.5 trillion, or until March 31, 2024, depending on whichever comes first. The package would slash spending by $4.5 trillion and further increase work requirements on public welfare programs, ban student loan-forgiveness programs, and clawback earmarked pandemic spending.

GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Tim Burchett were reportedly among the Republicans that voted against the bill's passage.

When the official time on the vote wound down, the count was 213 against to 206 in support of final passage. Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois, who had been talking to reporters in the Speaker's lobby, popped his head into the chamber while Republican votes still lagged behind. "I wonder who hasn't voted?" Quigley said, chuckling as he walked away. Four minutes later, GOP leaders gaveled the vote closed after sewing things up in their favor.

But it is far from a done deal. It faces a Senate with a razor-thin Democratic majority, who are unlikely to sign onto anything making welfare more difficult to access and rolling back their blockbuster Inflation Reduction Act. It's a chasm that both parties have been circling as the country inches closer to a potentially disastrous default, which could leave millions of Americans instantly unemployed and throw the country into a recession. 

Democratic senators insisted on Wednesday that the House bill is dead on arrival in the Senate.

"I don't think it will have any impact on what happens in the Senate," Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat, told Insider of the House bill on Wednesday afternoon. "We are having several subcommittee hearings today to discuss and debate the president's budget and what we should spend. And that's what should happen. I don't know what the House is engaging in, but it's not ultimately going to make a difference in the outcome." 

But Moody's Analytics finds that the GOP's plan could still cost the country 780,000 jobs, and exacerbate a potential downturn with the uncertainty of yet another debt ceiling fight in under a year.

And, even if the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 lands on President Joe Biden's desk, Biden has said that he'll veto it. The White House Office of Management and Budget said in a statement that the president has "been clear that he will not accept such attempts at hostage-taking" and that Republicans "must take default off the table."

"While taking the full faith and credit of the United States hostage is irresponsible under any circumstances, this legislation would ask hard-working Americans, the middle-class, seniors, children, and people with disabilities to shoulder the burden of devastating cuts, while doing nothing to ensure that wealthy or large corporations pay their fair share," OMB said.

Sen Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat, echoed the White House and insisted Republicans are "taking us up to the edge" of default. 

"Really the conversation is about should we or shouldn't we default on our obligations?" he told Insider on Wednesday. "That's not something we can do."

But GOP Sen. Ron Johnson told Insider that he thinks House Republicans "are doing the right thing."

"What we've certainly told House members — especially those who've never voted for an increase in the debt ceiling, like I've never voted for one — if we attach to it fiscal controls, if we use the debt ceiling as it's designed to be used, yeah, I would support it," he said. 

That means that both parties need to come to an agreement on an approach to raise the debt ceiling before the country hurdles into a default, expected early this summer. While Biden continues to refuse to negotiate with McCarthy on the topic, McCarthy has not budged in his stance that negotiations must happen to stave off a default. 

"Now remember what this bill is. This bill is to get us to the negotiating table," McCarthy said on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post. He added that even amid some concerns among his members, they would still vote for the bill "to make sure the negotiation goes forward because we're sitting in $31 trillion in debt."