Prediction of road dust concentration in open-pit coal mines based on multivariate mixed model

by Meng Wang, Zongwei Yang, Caiwang Tai, Fan Zhang, Qiaofeng Zhang, Kejun Shen, Chengbin Guo

The problem of dust pollution in the open-pit coal mine significantly impacts the health of staff, the regular operation of mining work, and the surrounding environment. At the same time, the open-pit road is the largest dust source. Therefore, it analyzes the influencing factors of road dust concentration in the open-pit coal mine. It is of practical significance to establish a prediction model for scientific and effective prediction of road dust concentration in the open pit coal mine. The prediction model helps reduce dust hazards. This paper uses the hourly air quality and meteorological data of an open-pit coal mine in Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021. Create a CNN-BiLSTM-Attention multivariate hybrid model consisting of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (BiLSTM), and an attention mechanism, Prediction of PM2.5 concentration in the next 24h. Establish prediction models of parallel and serial structures, and carry out many experiments according to the change period of the data to determine the optimal configuration and the input and output size. Then, a comparison of the proposed model and Lasso regression, SVR, XGBoost, LSTM, BiLSTM, CNN-LSTM, and CNN-BiLSTM models for short-term prediction (24h) and long-term prediction (48h, 72h, 96h, and 120h). The results show that the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention multivariate mixed model proposed in this paper has the best prediction performance. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²) of the short-term forecast (24h) are 6.957, 8.985, and 0.914, respectively. Evaluation indicators of long-term forecasts (48h, 72h, 96h, and 120h) are also superior to contrast models. Finally, we used field-measured data to verify, and the obtained evaluation indexes MAE, RMSE, and R² are 3.127, 3.989, and 0.951, respectively. The model-fitting effect was good.