Premier League Predictions: Can Tottenham keep a clean sheet against Man Utd?
Sky Sports’ tipster Jones Knows previews the midweek Premier League action and wants to oppose favourites Chelsea, Liverpool and Brighton on Wednesday.
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Everton vs Newcastle, Thursday 7.45pm
Everton have only managed to score two or more goals in one of their 16 home games this season.
It’s hard to see their flimsy attack being potent enough to achieve scoring twice against one of the tightest defences in Europe and a rampant attack that has found the net 13 times in their last four matches, so the starting point for this game is to oppose a home win which is aligned with the market, who have Newcastle at 8/11 with Sky Bet. No good there then.
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There might be a chance of digging out an edge against in the market in Newcastle’s corner count. Eddie Howe’s team tendency to work overloads down the sides, usually involving Kieran Trippier, means they have won the most corners of any team this season (209). I like the 11/8 with Sky Bet for them to win seven or more against Sean Dyche’s team who do offer up lots of territory so chances for opposition corners are high. Five of the last six teams to face Everton have managed to win seven or more, so a corner-winning machine like Newcastle should be seriously threatening that line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Any winners for Jones Knows this midweek?
- Nottingham Forest to beat Brighton: 5/1
- Brentford double chance vs Chelsea: 11/10
- Fulham 3+ offsides vs Villa: 11/8
- Fulham 4+ offsides vs Villa: 5/2
- Marc Roca 2+ fouls vs Leicester: 13/8
- Leeds 1-1 Leicester: 7/1
Southampton vs Bournemouth, Thursday 7.45pm
So-called ‘six-pointer’ matches where relegation is concerned are assumed to be cagey, low-scoring affairs. Not this season. Since the start of March, the 12 matches to involve two teams with genuine relegation worries have seen an average of 3.4 goals scored per game with scorelines like 0-4, 1-5 and 2-4 popping up. The market is leaning towards a lack of goals but I’ll happily play the over 2.5 line at Evens with Sky Bet.
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In a game where goals look on the menu, it seems wise to also back the best striker at the pitch to get at least one of them, especially when he’s priced up at 3/1 with Sky Bet to do so. Step forward Dominic Solanke.
Along with finding the net in the wins over Fulham and Tottenham, no player in the Premier League has had more shots in April than Solanke (17) to a backdrop of a healthy 2.41 worth of expected goals, highlighting that the chances falling his way are of high probability for a striker of his class. The markets don’t tend to respect him – but I certainly do. And he’s a huge slice of value to find the net again against a team that are odds-on to finish bottom.
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Image: Dominic Solanke is a 3/1 shot to score vs Southampton
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Tottenham vs Manchester United, Thursday 8.15pm
The goal expectancy for this encounter looks too high, meaning the play has to be oppose goals at the odds available.
You can bet your last penny that Tottenham will play in a very safe defensive structure after their complete capitulation at Newcastle. When a team is on the end of a bit of a hiding, there is a theory that their next game will be all about being defensively secure. And laugh at Spurs all you want, when their focus is sharp, their defence, especially at home, is one of the best in the Premier League. In the last 16 months, Spurs have the fourth-best home defensive record when it comes to expected goals against and only recently as February kept consecutive home clean sheets against Chelsea, West Ham and Manchester City.
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And when you add Manchester United’s recent malaise in front of goal, the case for a low-scoring encounter is an easy one to make. Erik ten Hag’s men have only scored 11 goals in their last 10 matches across all competitions and only have 19 goals to their name away from home in the Premier League – eight teams have scored more.
With both teams happy to adopt similar counter-attacking styles, it may take a while for this to burst into life – if it does at all. The under 2.5 goal line at 6/5 is worth chancing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
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