49ers draft preview: Five predictions that could go right or wrong
SANTA CLARA – The 49ers don’t do boring drafts.
Something will surprise you the next three days, even if they’re not “on the clock” until No. 99 overall Friday night.
Predicting what they’ll spring on us is an exercise based on educated guesses, historical trends, insider knowledge, and, if you’re into conspiracy theories, Reddit-room sleuthing.
We already know how “kind of painful” it was for general manager John Lynch to sit out last year’s first round. He recalled Monday that “it’s a lot of sitting and waiting and seeing names go off that you really like.”
Last year’s boredom was overcome by Day 1 trade drama. Deebo Samuel’s trade request went unfulfilled, while fellow wide receivers A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown were moved from their respective teams. Three months later, Samuel signed a contract extension.
In 2021, the 49ers surprised many by ignoring Alabama’s Mac Jones in favor of North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.
In 2020, the biggest news came on Day 3, when Trent Williams arrived via trade from Washington to replace Joe Staley, who had kept his retirement under wraps.
Go back to Lynch’s first draft with coach Kyle Shanahan, back in 2017. They traded down from No. 2 overall to No. 3, selected Solomon Thomas there, then moved back into the first round for red-flagged linebacker Reuben Foster.
OK, enough with the retrospective surprises. Here are some thoughts on what the 49ers might do in the coming days, including with their 11 picks, none of which are in the first two rounds:
1. NO TRADING LANCE
The 49ers will not trade Lance this week, not after just two unproven years, at the cost of $11 million in dead money with Brock Purdy’s recovery timeline still uncertain and with Lance’s ankle recovery still ongoing.
Don’t expect them to ship out their 2020 first-round selections: defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Kinlaw has minimal value because of knee injuries, but he’s healthy enough now they envision him as a bonus reserve. Aiyuk’s value skyrocketed after his first 1,000-yard season. “We’re trying to do something special this year,” Lynch said, “and Brandon is going to be a big part of that and beyond.”
Maybe the 49ers are more willing to part with two other recent picks who are buried on the depth chart: cornerback Ambry Thomas (2021 third round) and running back Ty Davis-Price (2022 third round).
2. LINEMAN COMES FIRST
Either a versatile defensive lineman or an offensive tackle arrives with the first pick, depending on who’s rated higher once the 49ers are on the clock, at No. 99 or higher.
Retrofitting the defensive line was job No. 1 this offseason, and they made strides by signing Javon Hargrave and Clelin Ferrell. If, for the seventh time in nine years, the first spend their first pick on a defensive lineman, look for YaYa Diaby (Louisville), Zach Harrison (Ohio State) or Derick Hall (Auburn).
Colton McKivitz is bucking for a promotion to replace right tackle Mike McGlinchey, but the 49ers may want a safeguard as another option there — or in case left tackle Trent Williams cashes out in the next year or so. Names to watch: Tyler Steen (Alabama), Matthew Bergeron (Syracuse), Anton Harrison (Oklahoma). Picking a guard or center first is unlikely, but if it means better protection for Purdy, go for it.
3. TIGHT END FRIDAY
A Day 2 pick will be spent on a tight end for the first time in a decade (Vance McDonald, 2013 second round), and a Day 3 pick will come, too. This regime can no longer ignore nor wait for one to complement and back up George Kittle. The only tight ends drafted since 2017: Kittle (fifth round, ‘17), Kaden Smith (sixth round, ‘19) and Charlie Woerner (sixth round, ‘20). Kittle, Woerner and 2018 undrafted gem Ross Dwelley are the only ones on the current roster. Candidates: Luke Musgrave (Oregon State), Sam LaPorta (Iowa), Brenton Strange (Penn State), Davis Allen (Clemson), Payne Durham (Purdue).
4. LOCALLY GROWN
Wide receiver Michael Wilson or Elijah Higgins will become the 49ers’ first Stanford selection since their 2017 first pick, Solomon Thomas at No. 3. What about the other locals?
Safety Daniel Scott would like to be the first Cal player drafted by the 49ers since Andre Carter in 2001, but don’t bank on that drought ending. San Jose State’s Viliami Fehoko (St. Francis High) could be a great find, but other teams know that, too.
Two local high school products who could fit but may be out of the 49ers’ price point: defensive end Isaiah Foskey (De La Salle High-Concord; Notre Dame) and quarterback Jake Haener (Monte Vista High-Danville; Fresno State).
5. DRAFT BOARD CHAMPS
The Seattle Seahawks will draw the best grade among NFC West teams in day-after draft columns. They have two first-round picks (Nos. 5 and 20), three on Day 2 (Nos. 37, 52, 83), then five more on Saturday. The Cardinals could trade down from No. 3 to add to their eight-pick rebuild. The Rams, with no first-rounder for a seventh straight year, finish with eight picks in Rounds 5-7.
Just don’t expect the 49ers to emerge with an 11-man class. Eight is enough. When they were coming off their most recent Super Bowl loss, they drafted just five guys in 2020.