Will ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ extend its Best Drama Supporting Actress Emmy reign?

The Commanders of the Faithful will probably rule over Gilead for quite a while still, but “The Handmaid’s Tale” may not do the same over one specific Emmy category: Best Drama Supporting Actress.

The dystopian Hulu drama has produced a total of 10 citations in the category, including at least one for each of its first four seasons: two for Ann Dowd — who won — and Samira Wiley for the first season; three for Alexis Bledel, Dowd and Yvonne Strahovski for the second; one for Wiley for the third; and four for Madeline Brewer, Dowd, Strahovski and Wiley for the fourth.

Of these nominated cast members, all except for Bledel — who exited the show ahead of the fifth season — are eligible in the category again this year, but none are in the top eight in our drama supporting actress odds at this moment. Per our current predictions, the likeliest nominees are, in this exact order, Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”), Sarah Snook (“Succession”), Rhea Seehorn (“Better Call Saul”), Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”), Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus”), Christina Ricci (“Yellowjackets”), J. Smith-Cameron (“Succession”) and Meghann Fahy (“The White Lotus”).

SEE Don’t count out ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ for another Best Drama Series Emmy nomination

“Handmaid’s” not placing in the top eight is likely due to the general uncertainty about how the show will perform at the Emmys after it earned mixed critical and audience reception for its fifth season — which aired last fall — and was completely passed over by the major guilds over the winter, including, for the first time, the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild of America Awards. The last time it received middling reviews and performed below expectations at the guilds, for its third season, it took a hit at the Emmys, dipping to a series-low 10 bids, but still managed to squeak out a nom for Wiley in this category. But even that year, it still had a number of guild nominations, including two for the show’s cast and its lead Elisabeth Moss from the SAG Awards, under its belt heading into the Emmys and enough overall support to get into Best Drama Series. So now that it lacks the backing of the guilds and is not expected to get into series, according to our odds, can it still field at least one Best Drama Supporting Actress nominee?

The most encouraging news for the supporting actresses of “Handmaid’s” is that the acting branch of the TV academy has been the show’s biggest advocate throughout its run. Of the 75 Emmy nominations and 15 wins the series has racked up, 27 and six, respectively, have been for acting. And considering it earned 10 of those 27 total bids the last time it was eligible, for its fourth season in 2021, there is no evidence to suggest that the actors have cooled on the timely drama just yet. Sure, it was shut out at SAG for the first time, but remember that there is no guaranteed overlap between the guild’s nominating committee — which consists of around 2,500 randomly selected SAG-AFTRA members who have not served on a committee for at least eight years — and the TV academy’s acting branch in any given year. So there’s a good chance the actors in the TV academy are higher on “Handmaid’s” Season 5 than those who were part of the SAG nom comm.

What’s more, there has been speculation that Coolidge, Seehorn and Snook may defect to the lead actress category. Should any, let alone multiple, of them decide to make the move — we’ll know by May 9 — that will open the door for at least one of the “Handmaid’s” actresses to slide in.

SEE Mckenna Grace could continue this Emmy streak for ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’

The most likely to do so would be, per our odds, Strahovski and Dowd, who are in 12th and 14th places, respectively. On paper, Dowd makes the most sense of two as a returning nominee since she’s the only person to have prevailed for and, along with Wiley, been nominated thrice for “Handmaid’s” in this category. She also has a baity storyline in the fifth season as her character, Aunt Lydia, begins to change her ways after two of her handmaids (Brewer and Mckenna Grace) are put in harm’s way. However, it’s Strahovski who could benefit the most from the return of the restricted ballot as she gets her biggest showcase yet — and gives what is arguably her series-best performance — this season, in which her character, Serena, goes from grieving her husband’s death to giving birth to becoming a quasi-handmaid. Plus, there could be an urgency to reward the Australian actor as she’s one of just few “Handmaid’s” series regulars to have not won an Emmy yet.

Wiley and Brewer are much lower in the odds, in 20th and 43rd places, respectively, but neither should be counted out either. Despite not having an individual storyline this season, Wiley, who was nominated for and won guest actress for the show’s second installment in 2018, is the only cast member besides Bledel to have been shortlisted for all four seasons and survived the last time “Handmaid’s” underperformed. And while Brewer has much sparser screen time in the fifth season than she did in the fourth, she already surprised with her bid last time and has juicy enough material to do it again.

So while “Handmaid’s” will probably have a more difficult time than ever before breaking into Best Drama Supporting Actress, don’t be surprised if it’s sent good weather by Emmy voters and continues its blessed streak in the category.

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