NFL Draft 2023: Expect These Teams to Move Up and Down in Tonight’s First Round

It’s draft day. It’s finally here. Let’s go!

• And, to me, what best defines this draft class is what’s happening with the teams between 10 and 14—in order, the Eagles, Titans, Texans, Packers and Patriots. I’m told all five of those teams have been making calls to teams above them about trading up and down. And it’s no coincidence that, in a year when everyone seems to be looking to trade down, it’s the group in that alley of picks that are looking both ways at this intersection of the draft.

“They’re going up because you start to run out of guys there,” says one head coach Wednesday night. “And if you’re there and you can’t get up, then you’re in no-man’s-land, and you’re looking to go back.”

Indeed, that implicitly tells the story of this year’s class.

You have the eight nonquarterbacks at the top—three pressure players for your defensive front (Will Anderson Jr., Jalen Carter, Tyree Wilson), two corners (Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon), two offensive linemen (Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski) and Texas’s stud running back Bijan Robinson. I think seven of the eight go in the top 10 tonight, with QBs mixed in, and then you’re into the Eagles, Titans, Texans, Packers and Patriots range.

The Titans have been the most aggressive about going up, but I could see Philly going as far as five spots up, too. And, again, both of those teams, and the others could look at going down.

We mentioned earlier in the week that the Packers like Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid at tight end. They might be able to get one or either, say, four or five spots down. Then, you consider New England, and if the tackles they like are gone, do they go best player (I’ve heard the Patriots connected to edge defenders Lukas Van Ness and Nolan Smith) at a position that’s not necessarily a need spot? Or trade down?

That’s all part of the chess game that’s going on now where I think the market will flip from being quality-driven (in the top 10) to needs-driven (thereafter).

• Van Ness, who’s only 21, is one name that continually comes up with teams in the first half of the first round. I do think there’s a wide range of outcomes for him, but he’s seen as a guy who’s a really good player already with room to grow.

“I’d liken him to Ryan Kerrigan,” says another head coach. “He can play inside and outside, you can put him at the 3-technique, the 4–I, and as a 5, a 7, and a wide in a 4–3. He was a really good player, and this kid has a chance to be, too.”

“Right now, he’s not that good, but you’re betting on the come with him,” says an AFC GM. “He wasn’t even a starter [at Iowa]. But he’s versatile, he can play in any scheme, 43, 34, he can inside, outside, and he’s gonna get bigger and stronger.”

He’s already 6'5" and 272 pounds at, again, a young age for a draftee. I mocked him to Atlanta at eight Wednesday, and could see him going at 10 to Philly, 12 to Houston, or 14 to New England. And while we’re there, I think Nolan Smith, a much smaller (6'3", 235) but wildly athletic edge guy (with sterling character and football makeup), is right in this mix, too, potentially for the Patriots, Steelers (17) or the Seahawks (20).

• I heard Houston has been legitimately torn this week over whether to go quarterback or edge rusher at No. 2, and owner Cal McNair is pretty involved in the discussion on that. One argument for going edge rusher first would be that the drop-off in edge rusher in what you’d get at No. 2 vs. No. 12 (where you could be forced to reach for someone such as Clemson’s Myles Murphy) is steeper than it is at quarterback. This debate also is why GM Nick Caserio, known as a bit conservative, is exploring a trade up from 12.

• The Steelers are another team that we’ve mentioned exploring a move up—a move I’d expect would be for a tackle. Right now, I think they probably stick and lean to defense.

• A more specific need that could be addressed is in Buffalo, and that’s for a slot receiver to take Cole Beasley’s place. To that end, there's been a good drumbeat on the Bills’ love for North Carolina’s Josh Downs. In my mock, I gave them TCU’s Quentin Johnston instead, as a year-ahead replacement for Gabe Davis (a 2024 free agent). I also think it’s possible, given the makeup of the receiver class, the Bills go get someone such as Iowa LB Jack Campbell or Alabama DB Brian Branch at the end of the first round.

Campbell would fill the void left by Tremaine Edmunds, and Branch would give them a safety to eventually inherit the throne held by Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, with the idea that he could contribute as a nickel corner right away.

• The Commanders, I’ve heard, have discussed trading back. One name to watch if they do is one I gave you in last night’s notes, and that’s Mississippi State’s feisty, slight star corner Emmanuel Forbes. As we said, he’s done really well through the process, with his 6'1", 166-pound frame standing as the one drawback.

• I asked one GM about the flip in the narrative surrounding Kentucky QB Will Levis over the past few days—for a month, he seemed to be sinking like a stone, and now the way he’s being talked about has done a 180—and the answer I got back was interesting. “Those teams probably went back and looked at his 2021 tape,” he says. We mentioned the Sam Howell corollary on that.

• If teams are going into the top 10 for a nonquarterback, I could see where it’s for an offensive lineman, either Johnson or Skoronski, and that’s because the group of tackles after those two is a little concerning. With each of the presumed next four (Tennessee’s Darnell Wright, Georgia’s Broderick Jones, Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison, Ohio State’s Dawand Jones), there’s either a work ethic or a maturity or a weight question that’s led to concerns over the overall football makeup. Johnson and Skoronski, in those categories, have no issues.

At this point, I’m having a hard time seeing Johnson get past, maybe, the seventh pick or so, and Skoronski is also solidly in the top 10.

• At least we know who the first pick is gonna be.