An Actual Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

Results From An Industry Pre-Draft Dynasty Rookie Draft

One of my favorite traditions in dynasty fantasy football is our yearly pre-NFL Draft rookie draft in the DFB Invitational League. The league, started by Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points, features a wide range of fantasy football industry heads. Scott (and teammate TJ Calkins), Rich Hribar, Matthew Berry, Evan Silva, Pat Thorman, Jeff Collins, Danny Kelly, Graham Barfield, Bob Harris, The Seige, myself, and the Dynasty Trades HQ guys are all managers in this league.

In this last week, we wrapped up our rookie draft. As the league has been running since Andrew Luck was still a first-round pick in startups, it is a good look at what can happen in actual money dynasty leagues after picks have been moved around for five-plus years. What follows is the four rounds of our rookie draft and an analysis of where the pockets of value are in a weird rookie class.

First Round

1. Bijan Robinson – Davis Mattek
2. Bryce Young – The Seige
3. Anthony Richardson – Danny Kelly
4. CJ Stroud – Evan Silva
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Bob Harris
6. Jahmyr Gibbs – Bob Harris

This is how I expect most top-six picks in all dynasty rookie drafts to go, even after the NFL Draft. There would have to be a massive shake-up in a landing spot for another player to leapfrog JSN or Gibbs as the backend of the elite tier. For example, if Jordan Addison gets selected by the Chiefs or Bills, it is not hard to see him leapfrogging JSN in rookie ADP, which is in the realm of possibility.

I think there is an argument to be made for the QBs in any order. I think Richardson has to be ranked as the first QB off the board in SFlex or single-QB, but there is no doubt that Stroud and Young rank as “safer” selections. Richardson’s bust potential is far greater than either of the blue-blood QBs, but his rushing upside makes him the best fantasy QB in the class.

7. Quentin Johnston – Graham Barfield
8. Will Levis – Dynasty Trades HQ
9. Jordan Addison – Pat Thorman
10. Michael Mayer – The Seige
11. Zach Charbonnet – Davis Mattek
12. Zay Flowers – Pat Thorman

I like the selection of Johnston by Graham. I prefer his archetype of WR to Addison and Flowers, even though Addison and Flowers have lower “bust” potential and higher floors. As the only first-roundish WR who projects to play on the outside, he has better TD potential than the rest of this group. Levis could be the big value in this group simply because he could become a Daniel Jones-esque prospect and be a QB starter for five-plus years. Think of this as a Justin Herbert corollary. We were certain Herbert wasn’t that strong of a prospect, but he was one of the biggest dynasty value-gainers in his class.

I selected Charbonnet as I am turning a tanking dynasty team into a contender and need running back help. I would have preferred to take Mayer (this team I am drafting for has no starting quality TEs), and I think he will end up meeting the value of any player in this rookie class after the top-six guys. After Flowers goes, we enter into a group of ten or so guys you could argue for in any order.

Another thing to note about this draft is that several teams have no firsts, and there are others with almost no picks in the entire rookie draft. This is the reality of long-running dynasty leagues, so don’t take this as some sort of ADP gospel. It merely indicates where the market is generally before the 2023 NFL Draft.

Second Round

13. Dalton Kincaid – Davis Mattek
14. Jalin Hyatt – The Seige
15. Josh Downs – Danny Kelly
16. Hendon Hooker – Evan Silva
17. Israel Abanikanda – Pat Thorman
18. Sam LaPorta – Bob Harris
19. Darnell Washington – Davis Mattek
20. Marvin Mims – Dynasty Trades HQ
21. Devon Achane – Scott Barrett
22. Luke Musgrave – Danny Kelly
23. Cedric Tillman – The Seige
24. Kayshon Boutte – The Seige

Kincaid is a bit of a feel play for me (though I recently bet Anthony Amico that he won’t go in the first round of the NFL Draft at plus money). My team needs TE points, and there are several attractive landing spots for TEs in the top 50 packs. The same goes for my selection of Darnell Washington at the 2.07.

Hyatt and Downs deserve to be the top-end of the second-round WRs. They are both smaller WR prospects (as covered in the first edition of this newsletter) but should get good draft capital. I was surprised by Silva’s selection of Hendon Hooker. Still, in a weak class, finding a starting QB in the second round is a massive hit for a rebuilding team. Harris’s selection of LaPorta is also strong, and he will be a frequent target of mine in rookie drafts this offseason.

Once the draft hits Marvin Mims, we see a gigantic tier break. Given how little information we have on these prospects, we are mostly drafting off of mock draft data, which goes haywire after Mims. Cedric Tillman, who CJ took, has been getting plenty of attention because he is one of the few WRs in this class who isn’t built like a baby. The reason so many tight ends went here is two-fold. First, it is not a strong rookie class compared to the two we just had, and second, it is an above-average TE class. It is easy to pass on someone like Kendre Miller, who is a mid-RB prospect, for the potential of getting a TE who might score 100+ points as a rookie.

Third Round

25. Tyjae Spears – Scott Barrett
26. Kendre Miller – Danny Kelly
27. Roschon Johnson – Danny Kelly
28. Jonathan Mingo – Evan Silva
29. Trey Palmer – Pat Thorman
30. Xavier Hutchinson – Bob Harris
31. Tucker Kraft – Davis Mattek
32. Zack Kuntz – Pat Thorman
33. Tank Bigsby – Dynasty Trades HQ
34. Tyler Scott – Scott Barrett
35. Sean Tucker – Rich Hribar
36. DeWayne McBride – Davis Mattek

Hit rates for wide receivers decreases dramatically as we get into the back half of rookie drafts. This is both true in the data but also intuitively. Running back production comes from opportunity, and wide receiver production comes from skill. It is easier for NFL teams to identify WR skill, but also harder to find. For RBs, we frequently see Day 3 NFL Draft picks contribute immediately as rookies, even if their teams move on from them. As such, the strategy employed by many managers in this league is to throw darts at RBs the later we get in drafts, and I think that is 100% correct.

Barrett and Kelly started the round with three straight RBs, while Pat Thorman and I continued finding TE points. Team Barrett spent another pick on Tank Bigsby after adding Tyjae Spears. After the NFL Draft, we will have far more clarity on which of these specific RBs will have a straightforward path to fantasy points as a rookie. However, for this draft, it is simply a matter of putting shots on goal. Frankly, it was probably bad that I took Kraft (or Kuntz) instead of Bigsby, based solely on hit rates. Still, there is not much difference in the RBs available here and in round four. The one player who could be different is Roschon Johnson, who I have pegged as the best RB “sleeper” in this class.

Team Barrett and Danny Kelly handled this round and the relevant uncertainties well.

Fourth Round

37. Deuce Vaughn – Davis Mattek
38. Chase Brown – Pat Thorman
39. Zach Evans – Danny Kelly
40. Evan Hull – Evan Silva
41. AT Perry – Bob Harris
42. Dorian Thompson-Robinson – Bob Harris
43. Rashee Rice – Graham Barfield
44. Jayden Reed – Dynasty Trades HQ
45. Tank Dell – Scott Barrett
46. Kenny McIntosh – Scott Barrett
47. Clayton Tune – Rich Hribar
48. Michael Wilson – Danny Kelly

Look, if Deuce Vaughn makes it, I am going to be rolling the Sklansky bucks. His athletic profile is not great, and he is literally the smallest player in the history of the NFL Combine. His production at K-State was so good that I couldn’t imagine not taking him in every fourth round of rookie drafts this year.

Thorman, Kelly, Silva, and Barrett continue the theme of mining RBs who might end up in good landing spots. The hit rates for fourth-round rookie picks are so low that it is hard to argue there is an optimal strategy for using them. Thirty-seven players deep into an NFL class on offense, there probably aren’t many starters. The RBs taken here will have an easier route to playing time but finding a fantasy starter with what is usually a wasted asset is a huge win.

Tank Dell is a fascinating prospect who, much like Vaughn, is also incredibly small but was hyper-productive at Houston. The Clayton Tune and DTR gambles are indicative of the format. They are unlikely to ever play, but even one year of Davis Mills-esque production is a huge win.

TL;DR

The 2023 NFL rookie fantasy football draft class is relatively weak. We have a strong top-six and four likely starters at quarterback entering the league. That is a considerable influx of QB talent taking up four of the 32 starting QB jobs. If all four stick for their rookie contracts, these selections will be almost unfairly valuable. After that tier break, it is hard to argue a late-first this year will turn into a cornerstone of any dynasty roster. Even Addison and Flowers could be a new-wave Jalen Reagor.

The weakness of the class gets exposed in the second round. Generally speaking, seconds in dynasty leagues are undervalued, but there is a good argument for turning your seconds and thirds into veteran contributors this year. That is what I did with my later selections. I tried hard to trade away the 1.11 and the 2.01 for a vet starter but was rebuffed. I also used the 1.08 to trade for Geno Smith and Jared Goff.

You could say, “If everyone says the class is bad and is scared, I should be buying,” and I won’t try to change your mind. Ultimately, we don’t know how these guys will perform at the NFL level.

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