Lovie Smith’s 2-point conversion completely changed the 2023 NFL Draft

Winning in Week 18 changed the entire draft for the Texans, Colts, Panthers and Bears

January 8, 2023 — The Texans and Colts just want it to all be over. Houston is 2-13-1, looking to close out the season and rebuild with the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, while Indianapolis is still licking its wounds from the disastrous hiring of Jeff Saturday and a complete collapse after firing Frank Reich.

Despite their shared disappointment, the Week 18 game between the Texans and Colts is remarkably close. The AFC South rivals are fighting for pride, and nothing else. Davis Mills throws a 28-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Akins with 50 seconds left on the clock. It’s one of the best throws of Mills’ horrific season, cold comfort for a player who is destined to be replaced.

Down 31-30, the Texans have a decision to make: They can either kick the extra point and extend the pain of the 2022 season into overtime, or play to win. Love Smith makes his choice.

From a football perspective it’s the right move. This is absolutely how a coach should coach, and a team should play — but in an instant the Texans completely changed the NFL Draft for their team, and everyone else in their orbit.

What the Texans’ win did to the draft

Beating the Colts in Week 18 only hurt Houston and boosted their AFC South rival. Had Houston lost, they would have locked up the No. 1 overall pick at 2-14-1, while the Colts at 5-11-1 would have fallen to the No. 7 pick behind Detroit.

It would have locked up the No. 1 QB in the class for the Texans, and they would be selecting Bryce Young with the first pick tonight, like they always wanted. Now they’re left pondering if they should take a step down to the next rung of quarterbacks, or draft defense and hope to find their franchise QB somewhere else in the draft.

Meanwhile, it put the Colts in a position to find their quarterback, without destroying their draft capital in the process. This is a fluid situation, and there’s a very real chance Indianapolis could trade up on Thursday night, but moving up from No. 4 is substantially less expensive that jumping up from No. 7.

It’s not just Houston and Indy though ...

As we see the draft tea leaves swirl together, we can see mammoth shifts that extend beyond the AFC South as a result of the two point conversion. If the Bears aren’t picking No. 1, then Carolina are unlikely to trade up in the draft, because a driving force behind the deal was controlling their destiny when it came to finding a new quarterback.

It’s entirely possible the Bears still find a trade partner, perhaps still with Carolina, but without that No. 1 pick they likely don’t get WR D.J. Moore in the trade. Alternatively, the Panthers might sit at No. 9 and hope a quarterback falls to them, rather than trading up at all — which the Colts have very little motivation to try and move up to No. 2 or No. 3, knowing the teams drafting ahead of them don’t need quarterbacks.

The short version of what the two-point conversion did is:

• Houston missed out on Bryce Young
• Carolina doesn’t get their QB
• The Colts get a QB
• The Bears don’t get D.J. Moore

That’s a lot of stuff to happen from one brief play.

Was the two-point conversion the right call?

That’s a difficult question to answer. On a macro level, absolutely not. Winning a pointless Week 18 game caused immeasurable damage to the Texans that we might not know for years down the road. If Bryce Young becomes a franchise-altering QB and the rest of the class is fine, but unremarkable, then it will live in infamy forever.

However, there’s also something to be said about being a coach first, not an extension of the front office. It was Smith’s job to win games, and motivating them to play hard in a meaningless game that fans hoped they lose, says something about the tenacity of his convictions.

Hindsight years down the line will tell us more, but the 2023 NFL Draft was truly defined by this cold afternoon in January.