Is Game 2 a must-win for the Warriors? Here’s what history says about 0-2 deficits

Seemingly nobody is panicked about the Warriors’ Game 1 loss to the Lakers Tuesday night at Chase Center.

Los Angeles was better rested after the Warriors had to beat the Kings in an intense Game 7 Sunday in Sacramento. Golden State expects to wear down the Lakers’ stars with its fast-paced motion offense. LeBron James is limited by a foot injury already and Anthony Davis has a history of injuries.

The Warriors are seven-point favorites to win Game 2.

But what if those expected advantages don’t take effect before the final buzzer sounds Thursday night? What if the Lakers steal another road game in San Francisco and head home with two games in downtown LA looming for a Warriors team that struggled mightily on the road in the regular season?

Here’s what history says about Golden State’s odds of recovering from an 0-2 hole:

In NBA history, 446 teams have lost their first two games. Only 33 (7.4%) have recovered to win their series. The Warriors just did that last round against the Kings. One could argue they might be uniquely suited for such comebacks with their veteran savvy, or one could suggest a repeat is even less likely statistically.

Just two teams in NBA history have done it twice in a postseason — but both are recent examples: The 2021 Bucks, including their NBA Finals win over the Suns, and the 2021 Clippers, who rallied against the Mavericks and the Jazz in the first two rounds.

Those Clippers are part of another tiny group: Only six teams have ever gone down 0-2 at home and recovered to win the series. The ’21 Clippers lost the first two games of the playoffs in front of COVID-shrunk LA crowds, then won the first two full-capacity road games in Dallas and beat the Mavs in seven games.

If the Warriors drop Game 2 at Chase Center, they will have to follow a similar path. They won two road games in the Sacramento series — including that Game 7 forced by a blown opportunity at home in Game 6. After going 11-30 on the road in the regular season, they would have to take two of three games in LA from the Lakers, just to get home-court advantage back.

A win tonight would quell that tension, but until the Warriors even the series, the long road remains in play.

Here are the six instances of teams battling back from a 0-2 deficit earned at home:

1969 West Division semis: Lakers drop first two at home to Warriors, win next four
1993 West first round (best of 5): Suns drop first two at home to Lakers, win next three
1994 West semis: Rockets drop first two at home to Suns, win next three, lose Game 6, win Game 7
2005 West first round: Mavericks drop first two at home to Rockets, win next three, lose Game 6, win Game 7
2017 East first round: Celtics drop first two at home to Bulls, win next four
2021 West first round: Clippers drop first two at home to Mavericks, win next two, lose another at home, win Game 6 and Game 7