NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Receivers Rule

The last of the major NFL offseason events is complete after the conclusion of the 2023 draft, so we now have a clearer look at how rosters and depth charts will look as we get closer to the summer months and the start of training camps. It’s also time to take a look at some of the more popular future award player props for the upcoming season, including the favorites for the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year honor.

Last season, Justin Jefferson took home the crown after his 128-catch, 1,809-yard, eight-touchdown campaign with the Minnesota Vikings. He became the third wideout to win the award in the last five years, as Cooper Kupp (2021) and Michael Thomas (2019) won it in previous seasons. That leads me to my first trend pertaining to the Offensive Player of the Year Award winners, and it has to do with wideouts.

Since the dawn of the award in 1972, only one other receiver has won the award besides Jefferson, Kupp and Thomas. Unsurprisingly, that’s Jerry Rice. He did it twice, in 1987 and 1993. So, even though three wide receivers have won the award in the last four years, just 10% of the overall winners have played the wideout position.

We’ve also never seen a receiver win the award in back-to-back seasons, which is no bombshell since so few have won it even once in 50 years. If you still prefer Jefferson, who is the co-favorite to win the award again, keep this fact in mind. There are just two players who have won it in back-to-back-seasons (both running backs, and they both won it three years in a row): Hall of Famers Earl Campbell (1978-1980) and Marshall Faulk (1999-2001).

Current odds to win 2023 Offensive Player of the Year:

Justin Jefferson +1000
Ja’Marr Chase +1000
Christian McCaffrey +1000
Austin Ekeler +1500
Jonathan Taylor +2000
Derrick Henry +2000
Davante Adams +2000
Deebo Samuel +2000
Cooper Kupp +2000
Tyreek Hill +2000
Stefon Diggs +2000

Historically, quarterbacks (40%) and running backs (52%) have been the most likely skill positions to win the award. But in recent years, as mentioned, it’s the wide receivers who have been the honorees. The odds mirror that, as Jefferson (+1000) and Ja’Marr Chase (+1000) are among the three players favored to win in 2023.

What’s more, seven of the 11 players at +2000 or better odds to win are receivers. The top running backs are Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. If you’re looking for some options with more attractive plus-money totals, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are at +2500. Mahomes won the award in 2018 and is the lone quarterback winner in the last six years.

If the recent wide receiver trend continues, you might want to consider A.J. Brown or CeeDee Lamb, who at +5000 have the same odds as Christian Watson and Terry McLaurin. If you’re thinking of going with a rookie, maybe Bijan Robinson (who is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year), you might want to think again. Just one first-year player has even won the OPOY award, and that’s Campbell in 1978.

Tight ends have never won the award, not even the greats like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe or Travis Kelce, so don’t expect a winner from that position.

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