Weekend Box Office Bet: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 should crush the competition
The 2023 summer movie season will kick off in full this weekend when James Gunn’s hotly-anticipated Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 flies into theaters six years after the release of its second installment.
While the Marvel Cinematic Universe has been one of the box office’s biggest champions in the past 15 years, the diminishing returns of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and the general concerns over superhero fatigue have some wondering what this Guardians sequel’s financial ceiling is.
While movie fans shouldn’t expect any film other than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 to top this weekend’s box office, how much money it makes is another question altogether.
Gold Derby’s user oddsmakers have set the Marvel film’s odds to win this weekend’s box office charts with a staggering -2000. That’s as good as you can possibly get; it’s a mathematical certainty that Rocket Raccoon and company will be victorious.
It has The Super Mario Bros. Movie, a juggernaut at this year’s box office, second with +2500 odds to come in first, with a second-place finish the most likely result for the film that has grossed more than $1 billion worldwide.
After that, Gold Derby has the coming-of-age Judy Bloom adaptation Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret with outsider odds of +9500 to win the weekend.
We’re going to guess that film comes in fifth this weekend behind the horror sequel Evil Dead Rise and the new Nick Jonas-Priyanka Chopra Jonas rom-com Love Again, while Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 handedly wins the weekend’s totals.
We’ll guess the Marvel Cinematic Universe will get a bit of a bump this weekend after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania‘s $104 million domestic opening.
Perhaps this latest Guardians film will make closer to last year’s Thor: Love and Thunder ($143 million domestic opening), which had a small role for Peter Quill and the gang? It’s not as likely, but it’s certainly possible.
Tracking is much lower for Guardians’ opening weekend ($110 million), but we’re going to guess the Chris Pratt-led MCU film will perform over expectations.
Top five box office predictions (May 5-7):
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: $125 million
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $20 million
- Evil Dead Rise: $7.5 million
- Love Again: $4.5 million
- Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret: $2.5 million