Climate change will force 113 million Africans to migrate by 2050

By 2050, up to 5% of Africa’s population — potentially 113 million people — may have to leave their homes because of the effects of climate change, a figure that is up from 1.5% today. 

The majority of this movement will happen within countries, rather than across borders, according to the recent African Shifts report. 

The report, produced by the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI), documents the realities of climate-forced migration in Africa and possible scenarios for future climate displacement. 

Climate mobility refers to the movement of people pushed by the adverse effects of sudden or slow-onset climate impacts.

Within the next 30 years, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region in East Africa, an area of 5.2 million square kilometres that comprises Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, could see up to 10% of the population — about 55 million people — forced to move within their countries.

Rural areas will see farmers leaving rain-fed lowlands and pastoral lands, the report said. “At the high end, pastoral areas in Rwanda could see around three million people leave due to adverse climate impacts. Meanwhile, the population in Ethiopia’s pasturelands could grow by 279 000 people by 2050 due to climate mobility.”

Along the coasts, sea level rise and flooding will force people to move out of low-lying areas. Coastal areas around Africa could lose up to 2.5  million people by 2050 from steady sea level rise, flooding and other climate stressors.

Africa’s cities will be dynamic hotspots of climate mobility. “Cities will continue to grow swiftly, although, on a continental scale, climate impacts could force up to 4.2 million people out of urban areas by 2050.”

Only when extreme social or environmental conditions force a second migration do people cross over into another country. 

Between 2020 and 2050, the movement of people across borders in response to climate change is expected to be relatively small. Across Africa, 500  000 people — and potentially up to 1.2  million — are projected to migrate to a neighbouring country.

Most cross-border movement will be in Southern Africa, where mobility between neighbouring countries is forecast to increase because of favourable climate impacts on crop yields that could enable people to undertake longer journeys. 

About 200 000 to 800 000 people could be moving between neighbouring countries in the region by 2050. At the country level, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Uganda and Zambia could see the largest increases in emigration from climate impacts, while South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Botswana and Kenya are forecast to see the largest increases in climate-driven immigration.

For people facing climate stressors on the continent, climate mobility is likely to be a “response of last resort. Most Africans are attached to their land and homes and don’t aspire to leave their communities. Half of the men and 40% of the women surveyed expressed hope and optimism for the future, despite experiencing severe climate disruptions,” according to the report.

For those who have relocated or consider moving, climate stressors are usually not the primary reason. “Climate impacts generally act alongside other drivers such as the search for education and job opportunities, access to livelihoods and social services and the draw of family ties.” 

The report argues for an approach that anticipates climate mobility, giving people, institutions and governments time to prepare for such events, said Sarah Rosengaertner, the global lead for knowledge and practice at the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, and Nick Simpson, senior adviser and Africa lead for knowledge and practice at the ACMI. 

“Informed migration in full knowledge of climate risks can, when well supported by local, national, and regional policies, help reduce vulnerability, build resilience, and prevent future loss and damage.”

They added that the report notes that climate change is already having a significant effect on mobility patterns in Africa, “with many people being forced to move due to droughts, floods, and other climate-related events”.

“People-positive adaptation” that plans for climate mobility is required to strengthen the resilience, Rosengaertner and Simpson said.

“If properly managed, it could enable some people to stay where they are rooted, help those who aspire to move to do so in a safe and informed manner, support communities that receive migrants, and anticipate and plan for situations where whole communities may need to relocate.” 

This could include providing access to climate information, boosting climate literacy, training, promoting sustainable livelihoods, improving infrastructure and services and ensuring that the rights and needs of migrants are protected, they said.

Training could be offered to young people, who are typically the first to move, to give them the green skills needed to make a positive contribution to their new locations. 

The report’s findings also highlight the need for investment in research and data collection to better understand the dynamics of climate-induced mobility in Africa. 

The international community’s response to the links between climate change and migration remains “hamstrung by the fact that this issue is nobody’s mandate”, Rosengaertner and Simpson said. “The response remains fragmented between processes on climate change, migration, human rights, development, and peace and security.” 

The most explicit commitments on climate migration can be found in the Global Compact for Migration, but the compact is non-binding and only addresses international migration, not movements within countries, they pointed out.

Africa is ahead of other regions when it comes to the availability of legal frameworks that could be mobilised to address the issue of climate mobility. 

“The Organisation of African Unity Convention on Refugees provides protection for people fleeing ‘events seriously disturbing public order’ in either part or the whole of their country of origin or nationality. The Kampala Convention on Internally Displaced Persons recognises ‘natural or human-made disasters’ as a ground for recognising protection needs.”

Member states of IGAD are leading the way by ratifying the Protocol on Free Movement in the IGAD region. 

They argue that these provisions could inform ongoing discussions in other regional economic communities on ways to protect citizens. “The main challenge is ensuring wide ratification and effective application of existing instruments at national levels.”

Many African countries face significant resource constraints, which can limit their ability to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, social services, and other adaptation measures, Simpson and Rosengaertner said. Laws and policies on migration, refugees and displacement have a part to play in addressing climate mobility in the continent. 

Poverty and inequality make people more vulnerable to climate change. 

“Low levels of climate literacy across Africa are likely to affect people’s decision-making in relation to mobility, and thereby their vulnerability to climate change, whether they stay or move. This connection between understanding climate risks and climate mobility is important because planned movements tend to have more positive outcomes than forced or reactive movements.” 

Improving awareness of climate change and climate risks, together with access to localised climate information help people make informed decisions on how to cope and adapt, including by moving, either temporarily or permanently.