Ira Winderman: Biggest day of postseason for Heat could be Tuesday (as spectators)

MIAMI — An argument could be made that the terrain already is shifting around the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference.

The Milwaukee Bucks are searching for a new coach. The Boston Celtics might soon be searching for one, as well. The Philadelphia 76ers face a ticking situation with James Harden and the increasing speculation of a return to the Houston Rockets in free agency. The Cleveland Cavaliers showed in the first round that they still are not yet ready. The New York Knicks just crashed and burned against the Heat. The Brooklyn Nets again could be searching for a leading man. And we’re still not sure how the Atlanta Hawks will be recast under Quin Snyder.

In other words, this season’s top seven East seeds all have questions they will, or potentially will, carry into the offseason. All the way down to the No. 8 Heat.

And yet, it is the bottom of the conference where the most seismic shift could be at hand.

No, the Heat, Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, Cavaliers, Knicks, Nets and Hawks are not in Tuesday’s NBA draft lottery.

But the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are.

With the right combination of rising pingpong balls, the generational talent of Victor Wembanyama could be airlifted into the Heat’s conference, a place where it took every last breath during the regular season for the Heat to eventually escape with the No. 8 playoff seed (as long ago as that seems now).

So, yes, the Heat will be paying attention at 8 p.m. Tuesday, even as they will stand on the eve of their return trip to the Eastern Conference finals.

And, yes, with a vested interest, even without an investment in pingpong balls.

So who are the Heat rooting for in the annual random-but-weighted drawing for the top four selections in the June 22 NBA draft?

The Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks or Oklahoma City Thunder.

Because better to have Wembanyama as the concern of Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Ja Morant, Kawhi Leonard and the rest of the leading men in the Western Conference.

Granted, there still could be potential Heat short- and long-term ramifications if Wembanyama goes West. It could make Damian Lillard more likely to stay with an instant Blazers boost (and therefore off the potential trade market). It could have Luka Doncic thinking of a long-term Mavericks marriage (and therefore not a 2026 free-agency target). And it could leave the Thunder as the team the rest of the NBA will be chasing in short order.

But, from a Heat perspective, Wembanyama in the West still beats the alternatives.

Because as the Heat age, a new era, a Wembanyama era, appears at hand, projected for the type of NBA entry impact the league saw with Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal and LeBron James and was expected with Zion Williamson.

Yes, the 7-foot-2 ball-handling, playmaking, outside-shooting French big man is viewed as that transcendent.

So transcendent that the seemingly annual given of a Heat Southeast Division title might not be as much a given if Wembanyama lands with the Magic.

So transcendent that it soon could be time to accept the Pistons’ reality as a playoff fixture, skipping the step of play-in team.

And if the lottery odds go out the door, it could open the door to instant revival and ascension for the Pacers, Wizards, Bulls or Raptors.

So, yes, the bouncing balls will be on the Heat’s mind, even as the balls keep bouncing for them in the playoffs.

As for how the lottery and Wembanyama could reshape the East, the impact could be profound.

Pistons, 14% chance of No. 1 pick: This is how it is done by the downtrodden — stack successful lottery picks and then hope for an ultimate breakthrough either in the draft, free agency or trade market.

The Pistons, through recent drafts, have set their roster up as a roster of the future, with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and John Duren.

Add Wembanyama into that mix and it either becomes a progression on steroids or some of the youth is dealt in a win-now bid to surround Wembanyama. Win, win.

Hornets, 12.5% chance of No. 1 pick: This is the exception to a potential instant jump to deep playoff-run contention, with a roster largely bereft of championship-caliber talent either of the moment or the future.

Yes, LaMelo Ball is intriguing, and there also are Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington.

But even with Wembanyama, this is a roster that still could wind up with a return lottery engagement.

Magic, 9% chance of No. 1 pick: As with the Pistons, this could be a trouble spot for East playoff rivals, if Wembanyama lands with the Magic a year after they landed Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero in the lottery.

(The Magic winning the lottery two years in a row, that couldn’t possibly ever happen, right?)

It might not be to the level of the Spurs landing Tim Duncan and David Robinson at No. 1 in the lottery, but factor in Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and perhaps a revival of Jonathan Isaac, and something special could prove enduring with Wembanyama.

Pacers, 6.8.% chance of No. 1 pick: Yes, the odds are long, but the payoff would be exponential alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin.

A jump here to a top pick and the late-season decision to tank could provide enduring payoff.

Wizards, 6.7 % chance of No. 1 pick: This is where it could get interesting from a Heat perspective

Fail to secure lottery luck and the Wizards just might have to consider moving off of Bradley Beal (or Beal might want out).

Make the jump to Wembanyama, and all the Wizards’ failed leading men could set up as optimal supporting pieces.

Bulls, 1.8% chance of No. 1 pick: The last team from the East into the lottery after their play-in loss to the Heat, this very much is an all-or-nothing exercise for the Bulls. Their selection goes to the Magic from the Nikola Vucevic trade if it is not among the top four in the lottery (the Bulls have an 8.5% chance of a top-four selection).

With Wembanyama, the Bulls would have to reconsider Vucevic’s free agency and also could consider moving off of some veteran talent for pieces that would play better in support.

Raptors, 1% chance of No. 1 pick: Just what the rest of the East would need, more length for a team that has it in abundance. Land Wembanyama and Masai Ujuiri would figure to be among the league’s busiest executives in roster restructuring — and the Raptors well could instantly reemerge to Kawhi Leonard-like levels.

IN THE LANE

THE WHO: With the last of the NBA’s awards announced, the league released the results of the media balloting, opening a window to how it played out among Heat candidates. For example, the one first-place vote Jimmy Butler received in the balloting for Clutch Player of the Year came from former Heat coach and TNT analyst Stan Van Gundy, with Butler finishing as runner-up to Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox. In the voting for Defensive Player of the Year, where he placed fifth. Heat center Bam Adebayo received his lone first-place vote from Brian Geltzeiler of Sirius/XM Radio. In the voting for Most Valuable Player, Butler’s three lone votes, all for fifth place, came from Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald, Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press and Michael Grange of Toronto’s Rogers Sportsnet. In the All-NBA voting, Butler’s lone first-team vote came from ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. (The South Florida Sun Sentinel does not participate.)

SETTING THE RECORD: Although his playing time was limited in his lone year with the Heat last season due to the neck injury sustained in his run-in with Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, veteran forward Marklieff Morris said on his Run Your Race podcast that he still was able to appreciate the essence of Butler. “Jimmy is so unselfish,” Morris said. “He hates the stamp of being one of those ‘superstar’ guys, because he’s so much of a team player that when you put that stamp on guys, and [say] like, ‘Yo, he’s a superstar. It’s his fault . . . he’s gotta take that last shot,’ he doesn’t play the game that way. So, his whole thing is like, ‘Don’t put that on me. I’m gonna play to win.; ” There also was a Butler comparison to former Heat forward LeBron James, a Morris championship teammate with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020. “You got guys that turn into different people in the playoffs,” Morris said, “He and ‘Bron stand out to me.”

EAR PIERCE: If the Heat face the Philadelphia 76ers in the Eastern Conference finals, it will be another reminder of the leadership lost last summer when P.J. Tucker departed in free agency. Now it is Tucker who has taken on the responsibility of being in the ear of 76ers MVP center Joel Embiid at times of doubt. “Nobody can guard Jo, one-on-one. There’s no way,” Tucker said during a postseason media session. “That’s not disrespect to Al [Horford, the Celtics center] or anybody else, but I guarded him for a lot of years. When he’s aggressive and assertive, it’s impossible. And I’d seen him, two or three plays in a row, not do that. And we can’t have that. We can’t have that. Not with the season on the line. We can’t have it.”

STILL SITTING: Offloaded ahead of the February NBA trading deadline at the cost of also sending a second-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, Dewayne Dedmon cast the move as an opportunity to reestablish himself after a miserable four months with the Heat. Instead, after getting his desired Spurs buyout and signing on with Philadelphia, the veteran center again has been reduced to spectator, held out of all but one of the 76ers’ 10 playoff games, appearing only in the 76ers’ 34-point Game 2 loss in Boston. Since joining the 76ers, Dedmon has appeared in seven games and been held out of 27.

NUMBER

5. Players named All-NBA this past week who would not have been eligible under rules starting next season that require at least 65 regular-season appearances for postseason awards, with the Heat’s Jimmy Butler (second team) appearing in 64, Giannis Antetokounmpo (first team) in 63, Damian Lillard (third team) in 58, Stephen Curry (second team) in 56 and LeBron James (third team) in 55.