Who matters and who doesn't in the GOP presidential race

By week's end, the 2024 Republican field will have swelled to about a dozen candidates, but only about half of them are even worth mentioning.

Donald Trump, who is currently dominating the Republican primary at about 54% in FiveThirtyEight's aggregate polling, is still the guy to beat. Sure, he's been found civilly liable of battery and defamation; he's been criminally indicted in Manhattan for falsifying business records in a hush-money payment scheme; he's facing near-certain federal indictment for mishandling classified documents and possible obstruction of justice; and he will likely be indicted for election fraud in Georgia. But Trump is still the GOP front-runner, with more than double the support of his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who sits at 21%—more than 30 points behind Trump.